Goodarz Danaei

Bio: Goodarz Danaei is an academic researcher from Harvard University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Risk factor. The author has an hindex of 59, co-authored 173 publications receiving 55837 citations. Previous affiliations of Goodarz Danaei include Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation & Imperial College London.

An analysis of electronic medical records to evaluate possible bias due to differential survival

Abstract: RESULTSdDuring 1.2 million person-years of follow-up, there were 13,455 cases of type 2 diabetes and 8,932 deaths. Statin initiation was associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. The hazard ratio (95% CI) of diabetes was 1.45 (1.39–1.50) before adjusting for potential confounders and 1.14 (1.10–1.19) after adjustment. Adjusting for differential survival did not change the estimates. Initiating atorvastatin and simvastatin was associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONSdIn this sample of the general population, statin therapy was associated with 14% increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Differential survival did not explain this increased risk. Diabetes Care 36:1236–1240, 2013

Estimating The Potential Impact Of Insurance Expansion On Undiagnosed And Uncontrolled Chronic Conditions

Abstract: Policy makers have paid considerable attention to the financial implications of insurance expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but there is little evidence of the law's potential health effects. To gain insight into these effects, we analyzed data for 1999-2012 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to evaluate relationships between health insurance and the diagnosis and management of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension. People with insurance had significantly higher probabilities of diagnosis than matched uninsured people, by 14 percentage points for diabetes and hypercholesterolemia and 9 percentage points for hypertension. Among those with existing diagnoses, insurance was associated with significantly lower hemoglobin A1c (-0.58 percent), total cholesterol (-8.0 mg/dL), and systolic blood pressure (-2.9 mmHg). If the number of nonelderly Americans without health insurance were reduced by half, we estimate that there would be 1.5 million more people with a diagnosis of one or more of these chronic conditions and 659,000 fewer people with uncontrolled cases. Our findings suggest that the ACA could have significant effects on chronic disease identification and management, but policy makers need to consider the possible implications of those effects for the demand for health care services and spending for chronic disease.

Association between HIV and blood pressure in adults and role of body weight as a mediator: Cross-sectional study in Uganda.

Abstract: The authors sought to describe the association between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and blood pressure (BP) levels, and determined the extent to which this relationship is mediated by body weight in a cross-sectional study of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected controls matched by age, sex, and neighborhood. Mixed-effects models were fit to determine the association between HIV and BP and amount of effect of HIV on BP mediated through body mass index. Data were analyzed from 577 HIV-infected and 538 matched HIV-uninfected participants. HIV infection was associated with 3.3 mm Hg lower systolic BP (1.2-5.3 mm Hg), 1.5 mm Hg lower diastolic BP (0.2-2.9 mm Hg), 0.3 m/s lower pulse wave velocity (0.1-0.4 mm Hg), and 30% lower odds of hypertension (10%-50%). Body mass index mediated 25% of the association between HIV and systolic BP. HIV infection was inversely associated with systolic BP, diastolic BP, and pulse wave velocity. Comprehensive community-based programs to routinely screen for cardiovascular risk factors irrespective of HIV status should be operationalized in HIV-endemic countries.

Associations between dietary patterns and serum lipids, apo and C-reactive protein in an adult population: evidence from a multi-city cohort in South America.

Abstract: Several previous epidemiological studies from developed countries have shown that an unhealthy dietary pattern affects plasma lipid levels and inflammation biomarkers. We assessed the cross-sectional associations between dietary patterns and cardiovascular risk factors among 961 adults from a multi-city cohort in South America. We conducted a principal component analysis to derive dietary patterns. As outcomes, we examined plasma levels of apo A-I, apo B, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), LDL-, HDL- and serum total cholesterol and TAG. The crude and adjusted changes in each outcome were estimated for quartiles of dietary patterns using multivariable linear regression models. The prudent pattern (PP) characterised by higher intake of fruits, vegetables, fish, seafood, whole cereal and low-fat dairy products was associated with reduced plasma concentrations of apo B (-8·5 mg/l), total cholesterol (-18·8 mg/dl) and LDL-cholesterol (-16·5 mg/dl) and hs-CRP (-1·6 mg/l) in men. In women also reduced plasma concentrations of apo B (-6·6 mg/l), total (-12·0 mg/dl) and LDL (-9·3 mg/dl). The 'Western-like' pattern characterised by higher intake of eggs, pastry and cakes, pizza, snacks, refined grains, red meat, vegetable oils and poultry was not significantly associated with any of the selected serum lipid or inflammatory biomarkers. The explained variances were 10·3 and 7·4 %, respectively. The PP was associated with better lipid profile, mainly lower atherogenic particles (apo B) and LDL-cholesterol and serum total cholesterol. This study provides possible evidence of a prudent diet in South American populations to help reduce the burden of CVD.

Global cancer statistics

Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

Global cancer statistics, 2012

Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.