Goodarz Danaei

Bio: Goodarz Danaei is an academic researcher from Harvard University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Risk factor. The author has an hindex of 59, co-authored 173 publications receiving 55837 citations. Previous affiliations of Goodarz Danaei include Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation & Imperial College London.

Do Patient Characteristics Impact Decisions by Clinicians on Hemoglobin A1c Targets

Abstract: In setting hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) targets, physicians must consider individualized risks and benefits of tight glycemic control (1,2) by recognizing that the risk-benefit ratio may become unfavorable in certain patients, including the elderly and/or those with multiple comorbidities (3,4). Customization of treatment goals based on patient characteristics is poorly understood, partly due to insufficient data on physicians’ decisions in setting targets. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to analyze patient-reported HbA1c targets set by physicians and to test whether targets are correlated with patient characteristics. Data from the NHANES waves 2005–2006, 2007–2008, 2011–2012, and 2013–2014 (the 2009–2010 wave lacked HbA1c data) comprised 2,641 individuals with self-reported diabetes, of which 1,782 responded to the question, “What does [your doctor] say [your] ‘A1C’ level should be?” On the basis of the distribution of responses, we analyzed the following targets: <6%, <7%, and higher cutoffs (<8%, 9%, and 10%) combined. Using ordered logistic regression, we assessed the influence of age; sex; race; diabetes duration; comorbidities; BMI; variables on physical, mental, and biological health; and health care utilization. We used NHANES sample weights to calculate population rates of target HbA …

Dietary determinants of serum total cholesterol among middle-aged and older adults: a population-based cross-sectional study in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Abstract: Objective To assess the dietary determinants of serum total cholesterol. Design Cross-sectional population-based study. Setting Peri-urban region of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Participants 347 adults aged 40 years and older from the Dar es Salaam Urban Cohort Hypertension Study. Main outcome measure Serum total cholesterol measured using a point-of-care device. Results Mean serum total cholesterol level was 204 mg/dL (IQR 169–236 mg/dL) in women and 185 mg/dL (IQR 152–216 mg/dL) in men. After adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle and dietary factors, participants who reported using palm oil as the major cooking oil had serum total cholesterol higher by 15 mg/dL (95% CI 1 to 29 mg/dL) compared with those who reported using sunflower oil. Consumption of one or more servings of meat per day (p for trend=0.017) and less than five servings of fruits and vegetables per day (p for trend=0.024) were also associated with higher serum total cholesterol. A combination of using palm oil for cooking, eating more than one serving of meat per day and fewer than five servings of fruits and vegetables per day, was associated with 46 mg/dL (95% CI 16 to 76 mg/dL) higher serum total cholesterol. Conclusions Using palm oil for cooking was associated with higher serum total cholesterol levels in this peri-urban population in Dar es Salaam. Reduction of saturated fat content of edible oil may be considered as a population-based strategy for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

Life expectancy and agricultural environmental impacts in Addis Ababa can be improved through optimized plant and animal protein consumption

Abstract: In Ethiopia, children and adults face a double burden of malnutrition, with undernutrition and stunting coexisting with non-communicable diseases. Here we use a framework of comparative risk assessment, local dietary surveys and relative risks from large observational studies to quantify the health and environmental impacts of meeting adult and child recommended daily protein intakes in urban Addis Ababa. We find that plant-based foods, especially legumes, would have the lowest environmental impact and substantially increase life expectancy in adults, while animal-source proteins could be beneficial for children. This context-specific approach—accounting for regional constraints and trade-offs—could aid policymakers in developing culturally appropriate, nutritionally adequate and sustainable dietary recommendations. Optimization models using locally adapted constraints and trade-offs demonstrate that adult populations in urban Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, could benefit from increased legume consumption, while children would gain from increased animal protein intake. This approach could inform policy and dietary recommendations in low- and middle-income countries.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: A pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

Abstract: Background Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40–74 years. Methods Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40–64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. Findings Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40–64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. Interpretation Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. Funding National Institutes of Health.

Global cancer statistics

Abstract: The global burden of cancer continues to increase largely because of the aging and growth of the world population alongside an increasing adoption of cancer-causing behaviors, particularly smoking, in economically developing countries. Based on the GLOBOCAN 2008 estimates, about 12.7 million cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths are estimated to have occurred in 2008; of these, 56% of the cases and 64% of the deaths occurred in the economically developing world. Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among females, accounting for 23% of the total cancer cases and 14% of the cancer deaths. Lung cancer is the leading cancer site in males, comprising 17% of the total new cancer cases and 23% of the total cancer deaths. Breast cancer is now also the leading cause of cancer death among females in economically developing countries, a shift from the previous decade during which the most common cause of cancer death was cervical cancer. Further, the mortality burden for lung cancer among females in developing countries is as high as the burden for cervical cancer, with each accounting for 11% of the total female cancer deaths. Although overall cancer incidence rates in the developing world are half those seen in the developed world in both sexes, the overall cancer mortality rates are generally similar. Cancer survival tends to be poorer in developing countries, most likely because of a combination of a late stage at diagnosis and limited access to timely and standard treatment. A substantial proportion of the worldwide burden of cancer could be prevented through the application of existing cancer control knowledge and by implementing programs for tobacco control, vaccination (for liver and cervical cancers), and early detection and treatment, as well as public health campaigns promoting physical activity and a healthier dietary intake. Clinicians, public health professionals, and policy makers can play an active role in accelerating the application of such interventions globally.

Global cancer statistics, 2012

Abstract: Cancer constitutes an enormous burden on society in more and less economically developed countries alike. The occurrence of cancer is increasing because of the growth and aging of the population, as well as an increasing prevalence of established risk factors such as smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, and changing reproductive patterns associated with urbanization and economic development. Based on GLOBOCAN estimates, about 14.1 million new cancer cases and 8.2 million deaths occurred in 2012 worldwide. Over the years, the burden has shifted to less developed countries, which currently account for about 57% of cases and 65% of cancer deaths worldwide. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among males in both more and less developed countries, and has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death among females in more developed countries; breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among females in less developed countries. Other leading causes of cancer death in more developed countries include colorectal cancer among males and females and prostate cancer among males. In less developed countries, liver and stomach cancer among males and cervical cancer among females are also leading causes of cancer death. Although incidence rates for all cancers combined are nearly twice as high in more developed than in less developed countries in both males and females, mortality rates are only 8% to 15% higher in more developed countries. This disparity reflects regional differences in the mix of cancers, which is affected by risk factors and detection practices, and/or the availability of treatment. Risk factors associated with the leading causes of cancer death include tobacco use (lung, colorectal, stomach, and liver cancer), overweight/obesity and physical inactivity (breast and colorectal cancer), and infection (liver, stomach, and cervical cancer). A substantial portion of cancer cases and deaths could be prevented by broadly applying effective prevention measures, such as tobacco control, vaccination, and the use of early detection tests.