Göran Ericsson

Bio: Göran Ericsson is an academic researcher from Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Ecology (disciplines). The author has an hindex of 36, co-authored 134 publications receiving 4870 citations. Previous affiliations of Göran Ericsson include University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad & Umeå University.

A model-driven approach to quantify migration patterns: individual, regional and yearly differences.

Abstract: Summary 1. Animal migration has long intrigued scientists and wildlife managers alike, yet migratory species face increasing challenges because of habitat fragmentation, climate change and over-exploitation. Central to the understanding migratory species is the objective discrimination between migratory and nonmigratory individuals in a given population, quantifying the timing, duration and distance of migration and the ability to predict migratory movements. 2. Here, we propose a uniform statistical framework to (i) separate migration from other movement behaviours, (ii) quantify migration parameters without the need for arbitrary cut-off criteria and (iii) test predictability across individuals, time and space. 3. We first validated our novel approach by simulating data based on established theoretical movement patterns. We then formulated the expected shapes of squared displacement patterns as nonlinear models for a suite of movement behaviours to test the ability of our method to distinguish between migratory movement and other movement types. 4. We then tested our approached empirically using 108 wild Global Positioning System (GPS)collared moose Alces alces in Scandinavia as a study system because they exhibit a wide range of movement behaviours, including resident, migrating and dispersing individuals, within the same population. Applying our approach showed that 87% and 67% of our Swedish and Norwegian subpopulations, respectively, can be classified as migratory. 5. Using nonlinear mixed effects models for all migratory individuals we showed that the distance, timing and duration of migration differed between the sexes and between years, with additional individual differences accounting for a large part of the variation in the distance of migration but not in the timing or duration. Overall, the model explained most of the variation (92%) and also had high predictive power for the same individuals over time (69%) as well as between study populations (74%). 6. The high predictive ability of the approach suggests that it can help increase our understanding of the drivers of migration and could provide key quantitative information for understanding and managing a broad range of migratory species.

A quantitative summary of attitudes toward wolves and their reintroduction (1972-2000)

Abstract: This paper reports an analysis of support for wolves (Can is spp.) reported in 38 quantitative surveys conducted between 1972 and 2000. Of 109 records reported in these surveys, a majority (51 %) showed positive attitudestoward wolves and 60% supported wolf restoration. Attitudes toward wolves had a negative correlation with age, rural residence, and ranching and farming occupations, and positive correlation with education and income. Thirty-five percent of ranchers and farmers surveyed had positive attitudes toward wolves. Among surveys of the general population samples, 61 % expressed positive attitudes. Surveys of environmental and wildlife groups showed an average of 69% support. Surveys in the lower 48 states showed higher proportions of positive attitudes than surveys in Scandinavia and Western Europe, where a majority did not support wolves. Among all surveys, 25% of respondents had neutral attitudes toward wolves. Positive attitudes toward wolves did not appear to be increasing over time. Because attitudes toward wolves are often not strong among the general public, they have the potential to change rapidly if linked to other, stronger attitudes and beliefs. We expect that progress in education and urbanization will lead to increasingly positive attitudes over time. Negative attitudes associated with age are probably a cohort effect, and we should not expect the aging populations in the United States and Europe to lead to more negative wolf attitudes. Paradoxically, successful wolf reintroductions are likely to reduce general positive sentiment, since the presence of wolves gives people a more balanced experience with the animals. Traditionally, people with the most positive attitudes toward wolves have been those with the least experience.

From migration to nomadism: movement variability in a northern ungulate across its latitudinal range

Abstract: Understanding the causes and consequences of animal movements is of fundamental biological interest because any alteration in movement can have direct and indirect effects on ecosystem structure and function. It is also crucial for assisting spatial wildlife management under variable environmental change scenarios. Recent research has highlighted the need of quantifying individual variability in movement behavior and how it is generated by interactions between individual requirements and environmental conditions, to understand the emergence of population-level patterns. Using a multi-annual movement data set of 213 individual moose (Alces alces) across a latitudinal gradient (from 56 degrees to 67 degrees N) that spans over 1100 km of varying environmental conditions, we analyze the differences in individual and population-level movements. We tested the effect of climate, risk, and human presence in the landscape on moose movements. The variation in these factors explained the existence of multiple movements (migration, nomadism, dispersal, sedentary) among individuals and seven populations. Population differences were primarily related to latitudinal variation in snow depth and road density. Individuals showed both fixed and flexible behaviors across years, and were less likely to migrate with age in interaction with snow and roads. For the predominant movement strategy, migration, the distance, timing, and duration at all latitudes varied between years. Males traveled longer distances and began migrating later in spring than females. Our study provides strong quantitative evidence for the dynamics of animal movements in response to changes in environmental conditions along with varying risk from human influence across the landscape. For moose, given its wide distributional range, changes in the distribution and migratory behavior are expected under future warming scenarios.

Age-related reproductive effort and senescence in free-ranging moose, alces alces

Abstract: A general prediction for aging placental mammals is that they should show a decline in reproductive value, and reproductive effort is therefore predicted to increase with age. To test this, we monitored known-age radio-collared females of a large ungulate, the moose (Alces alces), in a Swedish population. Female moose showed senescence in reproduction (i.e., litter size) from about 12 yr of age. Further evidence of senescence was a decrease in parental care during summer (expressed as increased offspring mortality) with the mother's age. Moreover, aging females facing a declining reproductive value increased their reproductive effort by giving birth to heavier offspring regardless of litter size. A logistic regression model showed that older moose have to give birth to heavier offspring to achieve the same offspring summer survival as that for offspring of younger mothers. This suggests that females increase their reproductive effort (by increasing offspring mass) as they get older. Furthermore, the rather intense harvest in our population may select for an increased reproductive effort in terms of litter size, which furthermore may select for an earlier onset of senescence in reproductive characters and mortality.

The European commission

Abstract: 2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management

Abstract: ▪ Abstract We review the evidence of regime shifts in terrestrial and aquatic environments in relation to resilience of complex adaptive ecosystems and the functional roles of biological diversity in this context. The evidence reveals that the likelihood of regime shifts may increase when humans reduce resilience by such actions as removing response diversity, removing whole functional groups of species, or removing whole trophic levels; impacting on ecosystems via emissions of waste and pollutants and climate change; and altering the magnitude, frequency, and duration of disturbance regimes. The combined and often synergistic effects of those pressures can make ecosystems more vulnerable to changes that previously could be absorbed. As a consequence, ecosystems may suddenly shift from desired to less desired states in their capacity to generate ecosystem services. Active adaptive management and governance of resilience will be required to sustain desired ecosystem states and transform degraded ecosystems...

The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion.

Abstract: Originally published in Contemporary Psychology: APA Review of Books, 1994, Vol 39(2), 225. Reviews the book, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion by John Zaller (1992). The author's commendable effort to specify a model of mass opinion formation offers readers an introduction to the prevailing vi

Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations

Abstract: Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors under-pinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear, predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience—the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop—as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options.