Author
Guido Schotten
Bio: Guido Schotten is an academic researcher from De Nederlandsche Bank. The author has contributed to research in topics: Financial risk & Monetary policy. The author has an hindex of 4, co-authored 6 publications receiving 315 citations.
Topics: Financial risk, Monetary policy, Mid price, Productivity, Wage
Papers
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TL;DR: The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years as mentioned in this paper, where the key controversies and potential research and policy avenues for the future are discussed.
Abstract: The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years. This Perspective presents the key controversies and discusses potential research and policy avenues for the future. Developing a comprehensive analytical framework to assess the potential impact of climate change and the low-carbon transition on financial stability seems to be the first crucial challenge. These enhanced risk measures could then be incorporated in setting financial regulations and implementing the policies of central banks.
297 citations
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TL;DR: The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years as discussed by the authors, where the key controversies and potential research and policy avenues for the future are discussed.
Abstract: The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years. This Perspective presents the key controversies and discusses potential research and policy avenues for the future. Developing a comprehensive analytical framework to assess the potential impact of climate change and the low-carbon transition on financial stability seems to be the first crucial challenge. These enhanced risk measures could then be incorporated in setting financial regulations and implementing the policies of central banks.
114 citations
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European Central Bank1, Bocconi University2, European Investment Bank3, Bank for International Settlements4, National Bank of Belgium5, Deutsche Bundesbank6, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens7, Bank of Greece8, Center for Economic and Policy Research9, Banque de France10, De Nederlandsche Bank11, Bank of Spain12
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse the impact of energy price developments on output and consumer prices in the Eurozone and the role of monetary policy in reacting to energy price changes in the macroeconomy.
Abstract: This report aims to analyse euro area energy markets and the impact of energy price changes on the macroeconomy from a monetary policy perspective. The core task of the report is to analyse the impact of energy price developments on output and consumer prices. Nevertheless, understanding the link between energy price fluctuations, inflationary pressures and the role of monetary policy in reacting to such pressure requires a deeper look at the structure of the economy. Energy prices have presented a challenge for the Eurosystem, as the volatility of the energy component of consumer prices has been high since the creation of EMU. At the same time, a look back into the past may not necessarily be very informative for gauging the likely impact of energy price changes on overall inflation in the future. For instance, the reaction of HICP inflation to energy price fluctuations seems to have been more muted during the past decade than in earlier periods such as the 1970s.
45 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the early stage of a major energy transition: the global challenge of switching to a carbon-neutral energy system in time, and the Netherlands is one of the countries in the early stages of this transition.
Abstract: Economic activity and energy consumption are inextricably linked. Given this, changes in energy systems can have a major impact on the economy and financial stability. This is particularly true in the case of the Netherlands, which is still dependent on polluting energy sources to a significant extent. We are currently in the early stage of a major energy transition: the global challenge of switching to a carbon-neutral energy system in time.
16 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate that the Netherlands could count on a permanent annual flow of receipts of around 2.5 billion from natural gas resources, which would provide a stable source of income from which future generations can also benefit.
Abstract: The Dutch government's revenues from natural gas fluctuate heavily and will dry up within several decades. According to the academic literature, only the permanent return on gas wealth should be included as income on the government's annual budget. This would prevent a deterioration in net wealth, and provide the budget with a stable source of income from which future generations can also benefit. On the basis of conservative estimates, it follows from our calculations that the Netherlands could count on a permanent annual flow of receipts of around 2.5 billion. In practice, however, gas revenues are included directly in the budget, while a part is reserved for investments via the Economic Structure Reinforcement Fund (Fonds Economische Structuurversterking). Using gas revenues for debt reduction, higher spending or lower taxes are political choices made anew by every new government. Our estimation results for the period 1975-2007 show that of a 1% of GDP rise/fall in gas revenues, 0.8 percentage point goes to easing/tightening policy and 0.2 percentage points to an increase/decrease of the budget balance. In the light of the recent fluctuations in oil and gas prices, preserving the stock of wealth from natural gas resources should become more important for the budgetary treatment of gas revenues in the Netherlands.
4 citations
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01 Jan 1982
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and propose some ideas concerning possible solutions, and conclude that it is necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power.
Abstract: This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.
2,283 citations
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TL;DR: From smart grids to disaster management, high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by ML are identified, in collaboration with other fields, to join the global effort against climate change.
Abstract: Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by machine learning, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the machine learning community to join the global effort against climate change.
441 citations
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01 Jan 2009
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a direct measure of global demand shocks based on revisions of professional real GDP growth forecasts and showed that recent forecast surprises were associated primarily with unexpected growth in emerging economies (and to a lesser extent in Japan).
Abstract: Recently developed structural models of the global crude oil market imply that the surge in the real price of oil between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting unexpectedly high growth mainly in emerging Asia. This note evaluates this proposition using an alternative data source and a different econometric methodology. Rather than inferring demand shocks from an econometric model, we utilize a direct measure of global demand shocks based on revisions of professional real GDP growth forecasts. We show that recent forecast surprises were associated primarily with unexpected growth in emerging economies (and to a lesser extent in Japan), that markets were repeatedly surprised by the strength of this growth, that these surprises were associated with a hump-shaped response of the real price of oil that reaches its peak after 12 to 16 months, and that news about global growth predict much of the surge in the real price of oil from mid-2003 until mid-2008 and much of its subsequent decline.
305 citations
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TL;DR: The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years as mentioned in this paper, where the key controversies and potential research and policy avenues for the future are discussed.
Abstract: The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years. This Perspective presents the key controversies and discusses potential research and policy avenues for the future. Developing a comprehensive analytical framework to assess the potential impact of climate change and the low-carbon transition on financial stability seems to be the first crucial challenge. These enhanced risk measures could then be incorporated in setting financial regulations and implementing the policies of central banks.
297 citations