Showing papers by "Guy F. Midgley published in 2009"

Growth responses of African savanna trees implicate atmospheric [CO2] as a driver of past and current changes in savanna tree cover.

Abstract: Atmospheric CO2 has more than doubled since the last glacial maximum (LGM) and could double again within this century, largely due to anthropogenic activity It has been suggested that low [CO2] contributed to reduced tree cover in savanna and grassland biomes at LGM, and that increasing [CO2] over the last century promoted increases in woody plants in these ecosystems over the past few decades Despite the implications of this idea for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics and key global role of the savanna biome, there are still very few experimental studies quantifying the effects of CO2 on tree growth and demography in savannas and grasslands In this paper we present photosynthetic, growth and carbon allocation responses of African savanna trees (Acacia karroo and Acacia nilotica) and a C4 grass, Themeda triandra, exposed to a gradient of CO2 concentrations from 180 (typical of LGM) to 1000 µmol mol−1 in open-top chambers in a glasshouse as a first empirical test of this idea Photosynthesis, total stem length, total stem diameter, shoot dry weight and root dry weight of the acacias increased significantly across the CO2 gradient, saturating at higher CO2 concentrations After clipping to simulate fire, plants showed an even greater response in total stem length, total stem diameter and shoot dry weight, signalling the importance of re-sprouting following disturbances such as fire or herbivory in savanna systems Root starch (per unit root mass and total root starch per plant) increased steeply along the CO2 gradient, explaining the re-sprouting response In contrast to the strong response of tree seedlings to the CO2 gradient, grass productivity showed little variation, even at low CO2 concentrations These results suggest that CO2 has significant direct effects on tree recruitment in grassy ecosystems, influencing the ability of trees to recover from fire damage and herbivory Fire and herbivore regimes that were effective in controlling tree increases in grassy ecosystems could thus be much less effective in a CO2-rich world, but field-based tests are needed to confirm this suggestion

Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges

Abstract: Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation.This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosys- tems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest - the species - with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions.The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity,and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change.We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs.

The impact of shrub encroachment on savanna bird diversity from local to regional scale

Abstract: Aim Evidence is accumulating of a general increase in woody cover of many savanna regions of the world. Little is known about the consequences of this widespread and fundamental ecosystem structural shift on biodiversity. Location South Africa. Methods We assessed the potential response of bird species to shrub encroachment in a South African savanna by censusing bird species in five habitats along a gradient of increasing shrub cover, from grassland/open woodland to shrubland dominated by various shrub species. We also explored historical bird species population trends across southern Africa during the second half of the 20th century to determine if any quantifiable shifts had occurred that support an ongoing impact of shrub encroachment at the regional scale. Results At the local scale, species richness peaked at intermediate levels of shrub cover. Bird species composition showed high turnover along the gradient, suggesting that widespread shrub encroachment is likely to lead to the loss of certain species with a concomitant decline in bird species richness at the landscape scale. Finally, savanna bird species responded to changes in vegetation structure rather than vegetation species composition: bird assemblages were very similar in shrublands dominated by Acacia mellifera and those dominated by Tarchonanthus camphoratus. Main conclusions Shrub encroachment might have a bigger impact on bird diversity in grassland than in open woodland, regardless of the shrub species. Species recorded in our study area were associated with historical population changes at the scale of southern Africa suggesting that shrub encroachment could be one of the main drivers of bird population dynamics in southern African savannas. If current trends continue, the persistence of several southern African bird species associated with open savanna might be jeopardized regionally.

Experimental biogeography : the role of environmental gradients in high geographic diversity in Cape Proteaceae

Abstract: One of the fundamental dimensions of biodiversity is the rate of species turnover across geographic distance. The Cape Floristic Region of South Africa has exceptionally high geographic species turnover, much of which is associated with groups of closely related species with mostly or completely non-overlapping distributions. A basic unresolved question about biodiversity in this global hotspot is the relative importance of ecological gradients in generating and maintaining high geographic turnover in the region. We used reciprocal transplant experiments to test the extent to which abiotic environmental factors may limit the distributions of a group of closely related species in the genus Protea (Proteaceae), and thus elevate species turnover in this diverse, iconic family. We tested whether these species have a “home site advantage” in demographic rates (germination, growth, mortality), and also parameterized stage-structured demographic models for the species. Two of the three native species were predicted to have a demographic advantage at their home sites. The models also predicted, however, that species could maintain positive population growth rates at sites beyond their current distribution limits. Thus the experiment suggests that abiotic limitation under current environmental conditions does not fully explain the observed distribution limits or resulting biogeographic pattern. One potentially important mechanism is dispersal limitation, which is consistent with estimates based on genetic data and mechanistic dispersal models, though other mechanisms including competition may also play a role.

Avian range changes and climate change: a cautionary tale from the Cape Peninsula.

Abstract: Evidence from the Northern Hemisphere and simple theoretical models both predict that climate change could force southern African birds to undergo poleward range shifts. We document the chronology and habitat use of 18 regionally indigenous bird species that colonised the extreme south-western corner of Africa after the late 1940s. This incorporates a period of almost four decades of observed regional warming in the Western Cape, South Africa. Observations of these colonisation events concur with a 'climate change' explanation, assuming extrapolation of Northern Hemisphere results and simplistic application of theory. However, on individual inspection, all bar one may be more parsimoniously explained by direct anthropogenic changes to the landscape than by the indirect effects of climate change. Indeed, no a priori predictions relating to climate change, such as colonisers being small and/or originating in nearby arid shrublands, were upheld. This suggests that observed climate changes have not yet been s...

Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise

Abstract: Abstract In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean ( Tg). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as Tg reaches and exceeds 2◦C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention

PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100

Abstract: Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.