Showing papers by "Guy F. Midgley published in 2010"
TL;DR: Huntley et al. as discussed by the authors proposed an approach to deal with the problem of climate change and bio-adaptation in the field of ecology and applied it to birds and animals in South Africa.
Abstract: B. Huntley (brian.huntley@durham.ac.uk), D. G. Hole and S. G. Willis, Ecosystem Science Centre, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham Univ., South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK. P. Barnard, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Percy FitzPatrick Inst. of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. R. Altwegg, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Animal Demography Unit, Dept of Zoology, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. L. Chambers, Centre for Australian Weather & Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia. B. W. T. Coetzee, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Centre for Invasion Biology, Dept of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch Univ., Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa. L. Gibson, Dept of Environment & Conservation, PO Box 51, Wanneroo WA 6946, Australia. P. A. R. Hockey, Percy FitzPatrick Inst. of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. G. F. Midgley, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa. L. G. Underhill, Animal Demography Unit, Dept of Zoology, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.
145 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used Maxent to relate current environmental conditions to occurrence data for 18 Banksia species, and subsequently made spatial predictions using two simple dispersal scenarios (zero and universal), for three climate-severity scenarios at 2070, taking the impacts of land transformation on species' ranges into account.
Abstract: Aim To determine the potential combined effects of climate change and land transformation on the modelled geographic ranges of Banksia. Location Mediterranean climate South West Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods We used the species distribution modelling software Maxent to relate current environmental conditions to occurrence data for 18 Banksia species, and subsequently made spatial predictions using two simple dispersal scenarios (zero and universal), for three climate-severity scenarios at 2070, taking the impacts of land transformation on species' ranges into account. The species were chosen to reflect the biogeography of Banksia in the SWAFR. Results Climate-severity scenario, dispersal scenario, biogeographic distribution and land transformation all influenced the direction and magnitude of the modelled range change responses for the 18 species. The predominant response of species to all climate change scenarios was range contraction, with exceptions for some northern and widespread species. Including land transformation in estimates of modelled geographic range size for the three climate-severity scenarios generally resulted in smaller gains and larger declines in species ranges across both dispersal scenarios. Including land transformation and assuming zero dispersal resulted, as expected, in the greatest declines in projected range size across all species. Increasing climate change severity greatly increased the risk of decline in the 18 Banksia species, indicating the critical role of mitigating future emissions. Main conclusions The combined effects of climate change and land transformation may have significant adverse impacts on endemic Proteaceae in the SWAFR, especially under high emissions scenarios and if, as expected, natural migration is limiting. Although these results need cautious interpretation in light of the many assumptions underlying the techniques used, the impacts identified warrant a clear focus on monitoring across species ranges to detect early signs of change, and experiments that determine physiological thresholds for species in order to validate and refine the models. © 2009 Western Australian Government.
119 citations
TL;DR: BioMove as discussed by the authors simulates plant species' geographic range shifts in response to climate, habitat structure and disturbance, at annual time steps, integrating species' bioclimatic suitability and population-level demographic rates with simulation of landscape-level processes.
Abstract: BioMove simulates plant species' geographic range shifts in response to climate, habitat structure and disturbance, at annual time steps. This spatially explicit approach integrates species' bioclimatic suitability and population-level demographic rates with simulation of landscape-level processes (dispersal, disturbance, species' response to dynamic dominant vegetation structure). Species population dynamics are simulated through matrix modelling that includes scaling demographic rates by climatic suitability. Dispersal functions simulate population spread. User-specified plant functional types (PFTs) provide vegetation structure that determines resource competition and disturbance. PFTs respond annually through dispersal, inter-PFT competition and demographic shifts. BioMove provides a rich framework for dynamic range simulations.
113 citations
TL;DR: The need to understand relationships between biodiversity and carbon cycling (including carbon sequestration) has risen in prominence owing to international interest both in preserving the terrestrial carbon pool and in conserving biodiversity.
53 citations
TL;DR: This work tests how δ13C varied between species and sexes of individuals in the family Restionaceae growing along a monitored hydrological gradient and suggests that some other variable could be responsible for masking a simple response to water availability.
Abstract: Consistent, repeatable segregation of plant species along hydrological gradients is an established phenomenon that must in some way reflect a trade-off between plants' abilities to tolerate the opposing constraints of drought and waterlogging. In C3 species tissue carbon isotope discrimination (δ13C) is known to vary sensitively in response to stomatal behaviour, reflecting stomatal limitation of photosynthesis during the period of active growth. However, this has not been studied at fine-spatial scale in natural communities. We tested how δ13C varied between species and sexes of individuals in the family Restionaceae growing along a monitored hydrological gradient. Twenty Restionaceae species were investigated using species-level phylogeny at two sites in the Cape Floristic Region, a biodiversity hotspot. A spatial overlap analysis showed the Restionaceae species segregated significantly (P < 0.001) at both sites. Moreover, there were significant differences in δ13C values among the Restionaceae species (P < 0.001) and between male and female individuals of each species (P < 0.01). However, after accounting for phylogeny, species δ13C values did not show any significant correlation with the hydrological gradient. We suggest that some other variable (e.g. plant phenology) could be responsible for masking a simple response to water availability.
16 citations
TL;DR: For example, this paper argued that the ability of conservation biologists to respond to climate change is limited not only by a collective failure of vision, but also by economic, social and political turbulence.
Abstract: These are times both terrible and exhilarating, and for none more than conservation biologists. We are confronted by compound pressures on biodiversity worse than any seen before in human history, and our ability to respond is limited not only by a collective failure of vision, but also by economic, social and political turbulence. We are increasingly conscious of at least one window of opportunity, a coherent global response to climate change, shutting faster than we can leap through. As we know, we are the first generation able to understand the changes we have caused, but the last with the chance to influence the course of many of them [2].
1 citations