Showing papers by "Guy F. Midgley published in 2014"

Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa

Abstract: In this paper we review current approaches and recent advances in research on climate impacts and adaptation in South Africa. South Africa has a well-developed earth system science research program that underpins the climate change scenarios developed for the southern African region. Established research on the biophysical impacts of climate change on key sectors (water, agriculture, and biodiversity) integrates the climate change scenarios but further research is needed in a number of areas, such as the climate impacts on cities and the built environment. National government has developed a National Climate Change Response White Paper, but this has yet to translate into policy that mainstreams adaptation in everyday practice and longer-term planning in all spheres and levels of government. A national process to scope long-term adaptation scenarios is underway, focusing on cross-sectoral linkages in adaptation responses at a national level. Adaptation responses are emerging in certain sectors. Some notable city-scale and project-based adaptation responses have been implemented, but institutional challenges persist. In addition, a number of knowledge gaps remain in relation to the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. A particular need is to develop South Africa's capacity to undertake integrated assessments of climate change that can support climate-resilient development planning. WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:605–620. doi: 10.1002/wcc.295 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.

Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits

Abstract: Since the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), demand for knowledge regarding the planning and implementation of adaptation as a strategy for climate risk management has increased significantly (Preston et al., 2011a; Park et al., 2012). This chapter assesses recent literature on the opportunities that create enabling conditions for adaptation as well as the ancillary benefits that may arise from adaptive responses. It also assesses the literature on biophysical and socioeconomic constraints on adaptation and the potential for such constraints to pose limits to adaptation. Given the available evidence of observed and anticipated limits to adaptation, the chapter also discusses the ethical implications of adaptation limits and the literature on system transformational adaptation as a response to adaptation limits. To facilitate this assessment, this chapter provides an explicit framework for conceptualizing opportunities, constraints, and limits (Section 16.2). In this framework, the core concepts including definitions of adaptation, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity are consistent with those used previously in the AR4 (Adger et al., 2007). However, the material in this chapter should be considered in conjunction with that of complementary WGII AR5 chapters. These include Chapter 14 (Adaptation Needs and Options), Chapter 15 (Adaptation Planning and Implementation), and Chapter 17 (Economics of Adaptation). Material from other WGII AR5 chapters is also relevant to informing adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits, particularly Chapter 2 (Foundations for Decision Making) and Chapter 19 (Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities). This chapter also synthesizes relevant material from each of the sectoral and regional chapters (Section 16.5). To enhance its policy relevance, this chapter takes as its entry point the perspective of actors as they consider adaptation response strategies over near, medium, and longer terms (Eisenack and Stecker, 2012; Dow et al., 2013a,b). Actors may be individuals, communities, organizations, corporations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), governmental agencies, or other entities responding to real or perceived climate-related stresses or opportunities as they pursue their objectives (Patt and Schroter, 2008; Blennow and Persson, 2009; Frank et al., 2011).

Adaptation opportunities, constraints and limits. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Abstract: Klein, R, Midgley, G, Preston, B, Alam, M, Berkhout, F, Dow, K, Shaw, M, Botzen, W, Buhaug, H, Butzer, K, Keskitalo, E, Li, Y, Mateescu, E, Muir-Wood, R, Mustelin, J, Reid, H, Rickards, L, Scorgie, S, Smith, T, Thomas, A, Watkiss, P and Wolf, J 2014, 'Adaptation opportunities, constraints and limits. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability' in C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, L. L. White (ed.) Climate Change 2014 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York City, United States, pp. 899-943.

Suborbital climatic variability and centres of biological diversity in the Cape region of southern Africa

Abstract: Aim To explore the magnitude and spatial patterns of last glacial stage orbitally forced climatic changes and suborbital climatic fluctuations in southern Africa, and to evaluate their potential roles in determining present biodiversity patterns. Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Palaeoclimate scenarios for southern Africa were derived for 17 time slices using outputs from HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model experiments, including five designed to mimic Heinrich events. Species distribution models for birds of Karoo (45) or Fynbos (31) were used to simulate species' potential past distributions. Species-richness patterns were assessed for each time slice, and minimum species richness for regional endemics of each biome determined for each grid cell. Areas of greatest ‘stability’ for endemics of each biome were identified using grid cells with greatest minimum richness. Results Simulated suborbital climatic fluctuations were of greater magnitude than orbitally forced changes and had anomalies of opposite sign in many areas. The principal local drivers of suborbital fluctuations were marked contrasts in South Atlantic circulation and temperature between experiments mimicking Heinrich events and those with only slow forcings. These contrasts in ocean circulation and temperature were consistent with marine sediment core evidence of changes in the South Atlantic coincident with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. Whereas orbitally forced last glacial climates generally resulted in range expansions and increased species richness in many grid cells compared with the present, the contrasting conditions of Heinrich events resulted in much reduced ranges and species richness, especially for Karoo species. Very few grid cells remained suitable for larger numbers of endemic species of either biome under all palaeoclimate scenarios examined, but this minority of ‘stable’ grid cells correspond to present diversity centres. Main conclusions Suborbital climatic fluctuations during the last glacial stage were probably of considerable magnitude in southern Africa. This may account for apparent inconsistencies between regional palaeoclimate records, as well as being key to determining present biodiversity patterns.