Guy F. Midgley

Bio: Guy F. Midgley is an academic researcher from Stellenbosch University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Climate change & Biodiversity. The author has an hindex of 66, co-authored 217 publications receiving 30649 citations. Previous affiliations of Guy F. Midgley include University of Cape Town & International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources.

Growth responses to elevated CO2 in NADP-ME, NAD-ME and PCK C4 grasses and a C3 grass from South Africa.

Abstract: The potential use of C4 biochemical subtypes [nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate-malic enzyme (NADP-ME), nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide-malic enzyme (NAD-ME) and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PCK)] as delimiters of plant functional types (PFTs) with distinct responses to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations was investigated in South African grass species. Gas exchange and above-ground growth in ambient and elevated CO2 (360 and 660 µmol mol–1 , respectively) were determined in three NADP-ME species, two NAD-ME species, two PCK species and one C3 species, all excavated from the same field site. Plants were grown in open-top chambers in a greenhouse for 178 d. Net CO2 assimilation rates were only significantly increased in one NAD-ME species, but stomatal conductances decreased (in six out of eight species, by a mean of 46%) and instantaneous leaf water-use efficiency increased (in all species, by a mean of 89%) in elevated CO2. These responses did not differ between photosynthetic pathways. Parameters derived from photosynthetic CO2 and light response curves were also not differentially influenced by CO2 treatment between pathways. Gas exchange responses were generally poorly related to CO2 responsiveness. Significant increases in leaf growth and canopy leaf area in elevated CO2 were found in two NADP-ME species, whereas increases in non-leaf above-ground growth were measured in three species representing all three C4 subtypes. Growth responses in elevated CO2 were apparently not simply correlated with biochemical subtype characteristics, although the most significant responses (particularly at the leaf level) were found for the NADP-ME pathway. This result was more likely attributable to the significant positive correlation found between CO2 responsiveness of leaf growth and relative leaf regrowth potential of individual species, the latter being higher in the two responsive NADP-ME species. Therefore, categorisation of PFTs according to relative growth potential may be more appropriate for predictions of CO2 responsiveness in C4 grasses.

Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies

Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between -8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and -22 to -6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.

Actions to halt biodiversity loss generally benefit the climate

Abstract: The two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately. There is evidence that conservation actions that halt, slow or reverse biodiversity loss can simultaneously slow anthropogenic mediated climate change significantly. This review highlights conservation actions which have the largest potential for mitigation of climate change. We note that conservation actions have mainly synergistic benefits and few antagonistic trade‐offs with climate change mitigation. Specifically, we identify direct co‐benefits in 14 out of the 21 action targets of the draft post‐2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, notwithstanding the many indirect links that can also support both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. These relationships are context and scale‐dependent; therefore, we showcase examples of local biodiversity conservation actions that can be incentivized, guided and prioritized by global objectives and targets. The close interlinkages between biodiversity, climate change mitigation, other nature's contributions to people and good quality of life are seldom as integrated as they should be in management and policy. This review aims to re‐emphasize the vital relationships between biodiversity conservation actions and climate change mitigation in a timely manner, in support to major Conferences of Parties that are about to negotiate strategic frameworks and international goals for the decades to come.

Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People

Abstract: Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and equitably. A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

Abstract: Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Extinction risk from climate change

Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.