Guy Pe'er

Bio: Guy Pe'er is an academic researcher from Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ. The author has contributed to research in topics: Common Agricultural Policy & Biodiversity. The author has an hindex of 28, co-authored 71 publications receiving 5911 citations. Previous affiliations of Guy Pe'er include German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research & Leipzig University.

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Abstract: BACKGROUND As global climate change accelerates, one of the most urgent tasks for the coming decades is to develop accurate predictions about biological responses to guide the effective protection of biodiversity. Predictive models in biology provide a means for scientists to project changes to species and ecosystems in response to disturbances such as climate change. Most current predictive models, however, exclude important biological mechanisms such as demography, dispersal, evolution, and species interactions. These biological mechanisms have been shown to be important in mediating past and present responses to climate change. Thus, current modeling efforts do not provide sufficiently accurate predictions. Despite the many complexities involved, biologists are rapidly developing tools that include the key biological processes needed to improve predictive accuracy. The biggest obstacle to applying these more realistic models is that the data needed to inform them are almost always missing. We suggest ways to fill this growing gap between model sophistication and information to predict and prevent the most damaging aspects of climate change for life on Earth. ADVANCES On the basis of empirical and theoretical evidence, we identify six biological mechanisms that commonly shape responses to climate change yet are too often missing from current predictive models: physiology; demography, life history, and phenology; species interactions; evolutionary potential and population differentiation; dispersal, colonization, and range dynamics; and responses to environmental variation. We prioritize the types of information needed to inform each of these mechanisms and suggest proxies for data that are missing or difficult to collect. We show that even for well-studied species, we often lack critical information that would be necessary to apply more realistic, mechanistic models. Consequently, data limitations likely override the potential gains in accuracy of more realistic models. Given the enormous challenge of collecting this detailed information on millions of species around the world, we highlight practical methods that promote the greatest gains in predictive accuracy. Trait-based approaches leverage sparse data to make more general inferences about unstudied species. Targeting species with high climate sensitivity and disproportionate ecological impact can yield important insights about future ecosystem change. Adaptive modeling schemes provide a means to target the most important data while simultaneously improving predictive accuracy. OUTLOOK Strategic collections of essential biological information will allow us to build generalizable insights that inform our broader ability to anticipate species’ responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. By increasing accuracy and making uncertainties explicit, scientists can deliver improved projections for biodiversity under climate change together with characterizations of uncertainty to support more informed decisions by policymakers and land managers. Toward this end, a globally coordinated effort to fill data gaps in advance of the growing climate-fueled biodiversity crisis offers substantial advantages in efficiency, coverage, and accuracy. Biologists can take advantage of the lessons learned from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s development, coordination, and integration of climate change projections. Climate and weather projections were greatly improved by incorporating important mechanisms and testing predictions against global weather station data. Biology can do the same. We need to adopt this meteorological approach to predicting biological responses to climate change to enhance our ability to mitigate future changes to global biodiversity and the services it provides to humans.

EU agricultural reform fails on biodiversity

Abstract: In December 2013, the European Union (EU) enacted the reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for 2014–2020, allocating almost 40% of the EU's budget and influencing management of half of its terrestrial area. Many EU politicians are announcing the new CAP as “greener,” but the new environmental prescriptions are so diluted that they are unlikely to benefit biodiversity. Individual Member States (MSs), however, can still use flexibility granted by the new CAP to design national plans to protect farmland habitats and species and to ensure long-term provision of ecosystem services.

A global map of roadless areas and their conservation status

Abstract: Roads fragment landscapes and trigger human colonization and degradation of ecosystems, to the detriment of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The planet’s remaining large and ecologically important tracts of roadless areas sustain key refugia for biodiversity and provide globally relevant ecosystem services. Applying a 1-kilometer buffer to all roads, we present a global map of roadless areas and an assessment of their status, quality, and extent of coverage by protected areas. About 80% of Earth’s terrestrial surface remains roadless, but this area is fragmented into ~600,000 patches, more than half of which are

Rewilding complex ecosystems.

Abstract: BACKGROUND Rapid global change is creating fundamental challenges for the persistence of natural ecosystems and their biodiversity. Conservation efforts aimed at the protection of landscapes have had mixed success, and there is an increasing awareness that the long-term protection of biodiversity requires inclusion of flexible restoration along with protection. Rewilding is one such approach that has been both promoted and criticized in recent years. Proponents emphasize the potential of rewilding to tap opportunities for restoration while creating benefits for both ecosystems and societies. Critics discuss the lack of a consistent definition of rewilding and insufficient knowledge about its potential outcomes. Other criticisms arise from the mistaken notion that rewilding actions are planned without considering societal acceptability and benefits. Here, we present a framework for rewilding actions that can serve as a guideline for researchers and managers. The framework is applicable to a variety of rewilding approaches, ranging from passive to trophic rewilding, and aims to promote beneficial interactions between society and nature. ADVANCES The concept of rewilding has evolved from its initial emphasis on protecting large, connected areas for large carnivore conservation to a process-oriented, dynamic approach. On the basis of concepts from resilience and complexity theory of social-ecological systems, we identify trophic complexity, stochastic disturbances, and dispersal as three critical components of natural ecosystem dynamics. We propose that the restoration of these processes, and their interactions, can lead to increased self-sustainability of ecosystems and should be at the core of rewilding actions. Building on these concepts, we develop a framework to design and evaluate rewilding plans. Alongside ecological restoration goals, our framework emphasizes people’s perceptions and experiences of wildness and the regulating and material contributions from restoring nature. These societal aspects are important outcomes and may be critical factors for the success of rewilding initiatives (see the figure). We further identify current societal constraints on rewilding and suggest actions to mitigate them. OUTLOOK The concept of rewilding challenges us to rethink the way we manage nature and to broaden our vision about how nature will respond to changes that society brings, both intentionally and unintentionally. The effects of rewilding actions will be specific to each ecosystem, and thus a deep understanding of the processes that shape ecosystems is critical to anticipate these effects and to take appropriate management actions. In addition, the decision of whether a rewilding approach is desirable should consider stakeholders’ needs and expectations. To this end, structured restoration planning—based on participatory processes involving researchers, managers, and stakeholders—that includes monitoring and adaptive management can be used. With the recent designation of 2021–2030 as the “decade of ecosystem restoration” by the United Nations General Assembly, policy- and decision-makers could push rewilding topics to the forefront of discussions about how to reach post-2020 biodiversity goals.

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Abstract: Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation

Abstract: Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a relatively new approach to modelling systems composed of autonomous, interacting agents. Agent-based modelling is a way to model the dynamics of complex systems and complex adaptive systems. Such systems often self-organize themselves and create emergent order. Agent-based models also include models of behaviour (human or otherwise) and are used to observe the collective effects of agent behaviours and interactions. The development of agent modelling tools, the availability of micro-data, and advances in computation have made possible a growing number of agent-based applications across a variety of domains and disciplines. This article provides a brief introduction to ABMS, illustrates the main concepts and foundations, discusses some recent applications across a variety of disciplines, and identifies methods and toolkits for developing agent models.