Harry van Loon

Bio: Harry van Loon is an academic researcher from National Center for Atmospheric Research. The author has contributed to research in topics: Southern Hemisphere & Northern Hemisphere. The author has an hindex of 37, co-authored 93 publications receiving 8115 citations.

Decadal Variations in Climate Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract: Large changes in the wintertime atmospheric circulation have occurred over the past two decades over the ocean basins of the Northern Hemisphere, and these changes have had a profound effect on regional distributions of surface temperature and precipitation. The changes over the North Pacific have been well documented and have contributed to increases in temperatures across Alaska and much of western North America and to decreases in sea surface temperatures over the central North Pacific. The variations over the North Atlantic are related to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Over the past 130 years, the NAO has exhibited considerable variability at quasi-biennial and quasi-decadal time scales, and the latter have become especially pronounced the second half of this century. Since 1980, the NAO has tended to remain in one extreme phase and has accounted for a substantial part of the observed wintertime surface warming over Europe and downstream over Eurasia and cooling in the northwest Atlantic. Anomalies in precipitation, including dry wintertime conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and wetter-than-normal conditions over northern Europe and Scandinavia since 1980, are also linked to the behavior of the NAO. Changes in the monthly mean flow over the Atlantic are accompanied by a northward shift in the storm tracks and associated synoptic eddy activity, and these changes help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous mean circulation in the upper troposphere. It is important that studies of trends in local climate records, such as those from high elevation sites, recognize the presence of strong regional patterns of change associated with phenomena like the NAO.

The Seesaw in Winter Temperatures between Greenland and Northern Europe. Part I: General Description

Abstract: We have investigated the well-known tendency for winter temperatures to be low over northern Europe when they are high over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic, and conversely. Well-defined pressure anomalies over most of the Northern Hemisphere are associated with this regional seesaw in temperature, and these pressure anomalies are so distributed that the pressure in the region of the Icelandic low is negatively correlated with the pressure over the North Pacific Ocean and over the area south of 50°N in the North Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean and Middle East, but positively correlated with the pressure over the Rocky Mountains. The composite patterns of pressure anomalies in the seesaw are almost identical to the fist eigenvector in the monthly mean pressure, but the standard deviations of pressure anomalies in seesaw mouths are as large as the standard deviations of monthly means in general. Since 1840 the seesaw, as defined by temperatures in Scandinavia and Greenland, occurred in more than 40%...

The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and Northern Europe. Part II: Some oceanic and atmospheric effects in middle and high latitudes

Abstract: Description of the seesaw in wintertime climate between Greenland and northern Europe is continued in terms of variations in long waves, frequencies of highs and lows, zonal geostrophic winds, precipitation, sea ice and sea surface temperatures. The monthly variations in four circulation modes are described. Significant spatial correlations exist between the zonal. component of the geostrophic wind in the area of the strongest westerlies in the North Atlantic Ocean and the zonal geostrophic wind elsewhere north of 20°N in winter. Long waves 1 and 2 change substantially from one phase of the seesaw to the other at 63°N. At 45°N only wave 2 changes appreciably between phases. Large, statisticaly significant anomalies occur during and after seesaw winters in the atmosphere-ocean-ice system of the North Atlantic Ocean and its periphery, as well as in the North Pacific Ocean. Anomalies of sea surface temperature which develop during seesaw winters tend to persist through the subsequent spring and summ...

Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing

Abstract: One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface.

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation

Abstract: Greenland ice-core data have revealed large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic that can be related to a major source of low-frequency variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the past decade, the Oscillation has remained in one extreme phase during the winters, contributing significantly to the recent wintertime warmth across Europe and to cold conditions in the northwest Atlantic. An evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals coherent large-scale changes since 1980 that are linked to recent dry conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereas northern Europe and parts of Scandinavia have generally experienced wetter than normal conditions.

The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields

Abstract: The leading empirical orthogonal function of the wintertime sea-level pressure field is more strongly coupled to surface air temperature fluctuations over the Eurasian continent than the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It resembles the NAO in many respects; but its primary center of action covers more of the Arctic, giving it a more zonally symmetric appearance. Coupled to strong fluctuations at the 50-hPa level on the intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal time scales, this "Arctic Oscillation" (AO)can be interpreted as the surface signature of modulations in the strength of the polar vortex aloft. It is proposed that the zonally asymmetric surface air temperature and mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies observed in association with the AO may be secondary baroclinic features induced by the land-sea contrasts. The same modal structure is mirrored in the pronounced trends in winter and springtime surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and 50-hPa height over the past 30 years: parts of Eurasia have warmed by as much as several K, sea-level pressure over parts of the Arctic has fallen by 4 hPa, and the core of the lower stratospheric polar vortex has cooled by several K. These trends can be interpreted as the development of a systematic bias in one of the atmosphere's dominant, naturally occurring modes of variability.