Henning Bohn

Bio: Henning Bohn is an academic researcher from University of California, Santa Barbara. The author has contributed to research in topics: Debt & Government debt. The author has an hindex of 34, co-authored 72 publications receiving 7263 citations. Previous affiliations of Henning Bohn include University of Pennsylvania & Center for Economic Studies.

The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits

Abstract: How do governments react to the accumulation of debt? Do they take corrective measures, or do they let the debt grow? Whereas standard time series tests cannot reject a unit root in the U. S. debt-GDP ratio, this paper provides evidence of corrective action: the U. S. primary surplus is an increasing function of the debt-GDP ratio. The debt-GDP ratio displays mean-reversion if one controls for war-time spending and for cyclical fluctuations. The positive response of the primary surplus to changes in debt also shows that U. S. fiscal policy is satisfying an intertemporal budget constraint.

U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?

Abstract: 1995). Our research examines whether the expansion of U.S. investment in foreign equities and the change in the composition of the foreign portfolio over time is consistent with standard models of international portfolio choice. To answer this question, we combine data on cross-border transactions in foreign equities with data on equity returns. Our approach has three important advantages over previous tests of models of international portfolio choice. First, we bring data on asset prices as well as data on the quantities of assets purchased to bear in the empirical tests.' Second, our testing procedure is robust to time-invariant hedge factors. This is because net purchases reflect changes in portfolio weights, and constant hedge factors that might explain home bias in levels do not affect the adjustment of the port

The sustainability of fiscal policy in the United States

Abstract: The paper examines the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, finding substantial evidence in favor. I summarize the U.S. fiscal record from 1792-2003, critically review sustainability conditions and their testable implications, and apply them to U.S. data. I particularly emphasize the ramifications of economic growth. A "growth dividend" has historically covered the entire interest bill on the U.S. debt. Unit root tests on real series, unscaled by GDP, are distorted by the series' severe heteroskedasticity. The most credible evidence in favor of sustainability is the robust positive response of primary surpluses to fluctuations in the debt-GDP ratio.

Balanced Budget Rules and Public Deficits: Evidence from the U.S. States

Abstract: Most states (Vermont is the exception) have a constitutional or statutory limitation restricting their ability to run deficits in the state's general fund. Balanced budget limitations may be either prospective or beginning-of-the-year requirements or retrospective or end-of-the-year requirements. Using budget data from a panel of 47 U.S. states for the period 1970-1991, the analysis finds that states with end-of-the-year (not prospective) balance requirements enforced as constitutional (not statutory) constraints by an independently elected (not politically appointed) state supreme court do have significant positive effects on a state's general fund surplus. The surplus is accumulated through cuts in spending, not through tax increases. It is saved in a state `rainy day' fund in anticipation of future general fund deficits. In contrast, prospective requirements, statutory end-of-the-year requirements, or constitutional end-of-the- year requirements enforced by a politically appointed court do not significantly constrain general fund deficit behavior. Finally, we find little evidence that the constraints `force' deficits into other fiscal accounts.

The New Growth Evidence

Abstract: Why do growth rates differ? This paper surveys the recent empirical literature on economic growth, starting with a discussion of stylized facts, data problems, and statistical methods. Six research questions are emphasized, drawing on growth and convergence research. In answering these questions, the paper argues that efficiency has grown at different rates across countries, casting doubt on neoclassical models in which technology is a public good. The latter half of the paper rounds up a variety of findings before providing answers to all six questions, including a short summary of how differences in growth rates arise.

Culture and institutions: economic development in the regions of europe

Abstract: Does culture have a causal effect on economic development? The data on European regions suggest that it does. Culture is measured by indicators of individual values and beliefs, such as trust and respect for others, and confidence in individual self determination. To isolate the exogenous variation in culture, we rely on two historical variables used as instruments: the literacy rate at the end of the 19th century, and the political institutions in place over the past several centuries. The political and social history of Europe provides a rich source of variation in these two variables at a regional level. The exogenous component of culture due to history is strongly correlated with current regional economic development, after controlling for contemporaneous education, urbanization rates around 1850, and national effects. (JEL: O10, F10, P10, N13)

Monetary Theory and Policy

Abstract: Part 1 Empirical evidence on money and output: introduction some basic correlations estimating the effect of money on output summary. Part 2 Money in a general equilibrium framework: introduction the Tobin effect money in the utility function summary appendix - the MIU approximation problems. Part 3 Money and transactions: introduction shopping-time models cash-in-advance models other approaches summary appendix - the CIA approximation problems. Part 4 Money and public finance: introduction bugdet accounting equilibrium seigniorage optimal taxation and seigniorage Friedman's rule revisited nonindexed tax systems problems. Part 5 Money and output in the short run: introduction flexible prices sticky prices and wages a framework for monetary analysis inflation persistence summary appendix problems. Part 6 Money and the open economy: introduction the Obstfeld-Rogoff two-country model policy coordination the small open economy summary appendix problems. Part 7 The credit channel of monetary policy: introduction imperfect information in credit markets macroeconomic implications does credit matter? summary. Part 8 Discretionary policy and time inconsistency: introduction inflation under discretionary policy solutions to the inflation bias is the inflation bias important? do central banking institutions matter? lessons and conclusions problems. Part 9 Monetary-policy operating procedures: introduction from instruments to goals the instrument-choice problem operating procedures and policy measures problems. Part 10 Interest rates and monetary policy: introduction interest-rate rule and the price level interest rate policies in general equilibrium models the term structure of interest rates a model for policy analysis summary problems.

An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output

Abstract: This paper characterizes the dynamic effects of shocks in government spending and taxes on U. S. activity in the postwar period. It does so by using a mixed structural VAR/event study approach. Identiecation is achieved by using institutional information about the tax and transfer systems to identify the automatic response of taxes and spending to activity, and, by implication, to infer escal shocks. The results consistently show positive government spending shocks as having a positive effect on output, and positive tax shocks as having a negative effect. One result has a distinctly nonstandard eavor: both increases in taxes and increases in government spending have a strong negative effect on investment spending. The predominant, Keynesian, view of the effects of escal policy that was embedded in the large-scale macroeconometric models of the seventies and eighties has come under attack. Theoretically, in the neoclassical approach that has developed in the last twenty years, government spending can have drastically different effects than in Keynesian models, particularly on private consumption. Empirically, the response of the economy to several episodes of escal retrenchment in the last efteen years has been at odds with conventional Keynesian wisdom: on several occasions, private consumption and GDP increased signiecantly while government spending was severely cut. Finally, the evidence from large-scale econometric models has been largely dismissed on the grounds that, because of their Keynesian structure, these models assume rather than document a positive effect of escal expansions on output.

Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?

Abstract: Are natural resources a “curse” or a “blessing”? The empirical evidence suggests either outcome is possible. The paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources. These include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate, deindustrialization and bad growth prospects, and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law, corruption, presidential democracies, and underdeveloped financial systems. Another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad, induces corruption especially in non-democratic countries, and keeps in place bad policies. Finally, resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets. The survey also offers some welfare-based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies.