Horacio Sapriza

Bio: Horacio Sapriza is an academic researcher from Federal Reserve System. The author has contributed to research in topics: Sovereign default & Debt. The author has an hindex of 24, co-authored 76 publications receiving 2440 citations. Previous affiliations of Horacio Sapriza include Rutgers University & Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Sovereign Default, Interest Rates and Political Uncertainty in Emerging Markets

Abstract: Emerging economies tend to experience larger political uncertainty and more default episodes than developed countries. This paper studies the effect of political uncertainty on sovereign default and interest rate spreads in emerging markets. The paper develops a quantitative model of sovereign debt and default under political uncertainty in a small open economy. Consistent with empirical evidence, the quantitative analysis shows that higher levels of political uncertainty significantly raise the default frequency and both the level and volatility of the spreads. When parties borrow from international credit markets, the presence of political uncertainty induces a short-sight behavior in politicians.

Computing Business Cycles in Emerging Economy Models

Abstract: We show that computing business cycles in emerging economy models using the discrete state space technique may be misleading. We solve the models of sovereign default presented by Aguiar and Gopinath (2006) using interpolation. We find that the simulated behavior of the spread is quite different from the behavior obtained using discrete state space. In fact, some of the results obtained by Aguiar and Gopinath (2006) using discrete state space are reversed when using interpolation. Our analysis thus provides a new set of benchmark results for quantitative models of sovereign default. ; Updated by Working Paper 09-13

Sovereign debt ratings changes and stock liquidity around the world

Abstract: Sovereign debt rating changes may unveil new information about a country, imposing a significant externality to the country’s private sector, and thus they affect investors’ incentives to hold stocks. While previous literature mostly focuses on the impact of sovereign debt rating changes on stock returns, we explore their impact on liquidity for stocks from 40 countries for the period of 1990-2009. Our findings show that sovereign rating changes have a significant and robust impact on stock liquidity. The impact is nonlinear and varies across stocks and countries. Moreover, we find that the effect is asymmetric and stronger for downgrades than for positive rating changes, and that the loss of sovereign investment grade has a particularly strong negative impact on stock liquidity. In a cross-section, firms with no political connection, smaller size, higher book-to-market ratio, closely-held ownership, less liquidity, less profitability, and less transparency tend to experience more negative liquidity effects from sovereign debt downgrades. We also find that the legal and macroeconomic environment of a country is important in explaining differences in impact of rating changes on liquidity across countries. Specifically, stocks from countries that are more open, that is, countries with higher investor protection, well-developed stock markets, more transparency, higher foreign institutional ownership, and higher GDP tend to experience milder drops in stock liquidity in response to adverse sovereign credit events.

Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorkの制定せる財務諸表様式について

Abstract: Enclosed is a copy of the Board of Governors’ Semiannual Agenda of Regulations for the period August 1, 1980 through February 1, 1981. The Semiannual Agenda provides you with information on those regulatory matters that the Board now has under consideration or anticipates considering over the next six months, and is divided into three parts: (1) regulatory matters that the Board had considered during the previous six months on which final action has been taken; (2) regulatory matters that have been proposed for public comment and that require further Board consideration; and (3) regulatory matters that the Board may consider over the next six months.

Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies

Abstract: Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because asset markets are incomplete. The model predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. The reason is that in a recession, a risk averse borrower finds it more costly to repay non-contingent debt and is more likely to default. In a quantitative exercise the model matches various features of the business cycle in Argentina such as: high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of consumption relative to output, a negative correlation of interest rates and output and a negative correlation of the trade balance and output. The model can also predict the recent default episode in Argentina.

Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies

Abstract: Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because asset markets are incomplete. The model predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. The reason is that in a recession, a risk averse borrower finds it more costly to repay non-contingent debt and is more likely to default. In a quantitative exercise the model matches various features of the business cycle in Argentina such as: high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of consumption relative to output, a negative correlation of interest rates and output and a negative correlation of the trade balance and output. The model can also predict the recent default episode in Argentina.

Can news about the future drive the business cycle

Abstract: Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycles, so the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most models fail. We propose a unified model that generates aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral total factor productivity shocks as well as investment specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply. (JEL