Hubert Ooghe

Bio: Hubert Ooghe is an academic researcher from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. The author has contributed to research in topics: Bankruptcy & Exit strategy. The author has an hindex of 29, co-authored 66 publications receiving 2938 citations. Previous affiliations of Hubert Ooghe include Ghent University.

35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems

Abstract: Over the last 35 years, business failure prediction has become a major research domain within corporate finance. Numerous corporate failure prediction models have been developed, based on various modelling techniques. The most popular are the classic cross-sectional statistical methods, which have resulted in various ‘single-period’ or static models, especially multivariate discriminant models and logit models. To date, there has been no clear overview and discussion of the application of classic statistical methods to business failure prediction. Therefore, this paper extensively elaborates on the application of (1) univariate analysis, (2) risk index models, (3) multivariate discriminant analysis, and (4) conditional probability models in corporate failure prediction. In addition, because there is no clear and comprehensive analysis in the existing literature of the diverse problems related to the application of these methods to the topic of corporate failure prediction, this paper brings together all problem issues and enlarges upon each of them. It discusses all problems related to: (1) the classical paradigm (i.e. the arbitrary definition of failure, non-stationarity and data instability, sampling selectivity, and the choice of the optimisation criteria); (2) the neglect of the time dimension of failure; and (3) the application focus in failure prediction modelling. Further, the paper elaborates on a number of other problems related to the use of a linear classification rule, the use of annual account information, and neglect of the multidimensional nature of failure. This paper contributes towards a thorough understanding of the features of the classic statistical business failure prediction models and their related problems.

Failure processes and causes of company bankruptcy: a typology

Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to show that previous research about financial and non-financial causes of bankruptcy has neglected the time dimension of failure. The paper seeks to gain deeper insight into the failure process of a company, giving it a more grounded understanding of the relationship between the characteristics of a company, the underlying causes of failure and the financial effects. Design/methodollogy/approach - The findings are based on a literature overview and in-depth case study research. Findings - Four types of failure processes were observed: the failure process of unsuccessful startups, the failure process of ambitious growth companies, the failure process of dazzled growth companies, and the failure process of apathetic established companies. Between these four failure processes, there exist major distinctions in terms of the presence and the importance of specific causes of bankruptcy, i.e. errors made by management, errors in the corporate policy and the importance of external factors. Research limitations/implications - The results of the study are based on qualitative, case study research. No attempt is made to quantify the existence and the importance of the findings. The major constructs that emerged as important in the research are well-known concepts in the management literature. As a consequence, they should be further developed in order to quantify their effect in large-scale studies. Practical implications - Based on the findings, stakeholders of a company can have a clearer view of both the time dimension inherent in corporate failure and the impact of their own actions on bankruptcy. Originality/value - The paper lays the ground for understanding the process of company failure. Company failure does not happen overnight and therefore a longitudinal and holistic perspective is needed.

The financial structure of privately held Belgian firms

Abstract: We examine the determinants of the debt-equity choice and the debt maturity choice for a sample of small, privately held firms in a creditor oriented environment. Our results, which are based on 4,706 firm-year observations for 1132 Belgian firms in the period 1996–2000, generally confirm the role of asymmetric information and agency costs of debt as major determinants of the financial structure of privately held firms. High growth firms and firms with less tangible assets have a lower debt ratio. We also find that more profitable firms have less debt. Firms tend to match the maturity of debt with the maturity of their assets. Growth options do not seem to influence debt maturity, which would suggest that the underinvestment problem is resolved by lowering leverage and by bank monitoring, not by reducing debt maturity. Credit risk is also an important determinant of debt maturity: firms with higher credit risk borrow more on the short term. Finally, in contrast to most studies on the financial structure of companies, we find that larger firms tend to have a higher debt ratio and a shorter debt maturity.

The Financial Structure of Private Held Belgian Firms

Abstract: We examine the determinants of the debt-equity choice and the debt maturity choice for a sample of small, privately held firms in a creditor oriented environment. Our results, which are based on 4,706 firm-year observations for 1132 Belgian firms in the period 1996–2000, generally confirm the role of asymmetric information and agency costs of debt as major determinants of the financial structure of privately held firms. High growth firms and firms with less tangible assets have a lower debt ratio. We also find that more profitable firms have less debt. Firms tend to match the maturity of debt with the maturity of their assets. Growth options do not seem to influence debt maturity, which would suggest that the underinvestment problem is resolved by lowering leverage and by bank monitoring, not by reducing debt maturity. Credit risk is also an important determinant of debt maturity: firms with higher credit risk borrow more on the short term. Finally, in contrast to most studies on the financial structure of companies, we find that larger firms tend to have a higher debt ratio and a shorter debt maturity.

Pre-Acquisition Profile of Privately Held Companies Involved in Takeovers: an Empirical Study

Abstract: This study addresses the pre-acquisition financial characteristics of privately held acquiring and acquired companies involved in 143 Belgian takeovers between 1992 and 1994. Specifically, the research examines the profitability, liquidity, financial structure, added value and failure risk using statistical analysis of industry-adjusted variables. Our findings show that acquisition is not an alternative to bankruptcy since acquired companies do not report high failure risk, but exhibit higher than industry liquidity and solvency. The acquirers achieve a higher growth rate in total assets and sales than the acquired firms but experience a negative industry-adjusted liquidity and are highly levered, suggesting evidence for a growth-resource mismatch or a financial fit between acquirers and their targets.

Venture capitalist governance and value added in four countries

Abstract: The rapid internationalization of markets for venture capital is expanding the funding alternatives available to entrepreneurs. For venture capital firms, this trend spells intensified competition in markets already at or past saturation. At issue for both entrepreneurs and venture capital firms is how and when venture capitalists (VCs) can provide meaningful oversight and add value to their portfolio companies beyond the provision of capital. An important way VCs add value beyond the money they provide is through their close relationships with the managers of their portfolio companies. Whereas some VCs take a very hands-off approach to oversight, others become deeply involved in the development of their portfolio companies. Utilizing surveys of VCs in the United States and the three largest markets in Europe (the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and France), we examined the determinants of interaction between VCs and CEOs, the roles VCs assume, and VCs' perceptions of how much value they add through these roles. We examined the strategic, interpersonal, and networking roles through which VCs are involved in their portfolio companies, and we analyzed how successful such efforts were. By so doing we were able to shed light on how and when VCs in four major markets expend their greatest effort to provide oversight and value-added assistance to their investment companies. Consistent with prior empirical work, we found that VCs saw strategic involvement as their most important role, i.e., providing financial and business advice and functioning as a sounding board. They rated their interpersonal roles (as mentor and confidant to CEOs) as next in value. Finally, they rated their networking roles (i.e., as contacts to other firms and professionals) as third most important. These ratings were consistent across all four markets. VCs in the United States and the United Kingdom were the most involved in their ventures, and they added the most value. VCs in France were the least involved and added the least value; VCs in France appeared to be least like others in terms of what factors drove their efforts. Our theoretical models explained a greater proportion of variance in governance and value added in the United States than elsewhere. Clear patterns of behavior emerged that reflect the manner in which different markets operate. Among the European markets, practices in the United Kingdom appear to be most like that in the United States. Determinants of Governance (Face-to-Face Interaction) We operationalized VC governance or monitoring of ventures as the amount of face-to-face interaction VCs had with venture CEOs. We found some evidence that VCs increase monitoring in response to agency risks, but the results were mixed. Lack of experience on the part of CEOs did not prompt significant additional monitoring as had been predicted. A more potent determinant was how long the VC-CEO pairs worked together; longer relationships mitigated agency concerns and reduced monitoring. Contrary to expectations, perceived business risk in the form of VCs' satisfaction with recent venture performance had little impact on face-to-face interaction. Monitoring was greatest in early stage ventures, indicating that VCs respond to high uncertainty by increased information exchange with CEOs. We measured two types of VC experience and found different patterns for the two. Generally speaking, VCs with greater experience in the venture capital industry required less interaction with CEOs, whereas VCs with greater experience in the portfolio company's industry interacted more frequently with CEOs than did VCs without such experience. Determinants of Value Added We argued that VCs would most add value to ventures when the venture lacked resources or faced perceived business risks, when the task environment was highly uncertain, and when VCs had great investing and operating experience. Contrary to expectations, VCs added most value to those ventures already performing well. As we had predicted, VCs did add relatively more value when uncertainty was high: e.g., for ventures in the earliest stages and for ventures pursuing innovation strategies. Finally, we found that VCs with operating experience in the venture's focal industry added significantly more value than those with less industry-specific experience. These results are consistent with anecdotal evidence that entrepreneurs have a strong preference for VCs with similar backgrounds as their own. We found no evidence that experience in the venture capital industry contributed significantly to value added. Together, these results suggest that investigations of the social as well as economic dimensions of venture building may prove a fruitful avenue for future study. Overall, the results showed that value-added is strongly related to the amount of face-to-face interaction between VC-CEO pairs and to the number of hours VCs put in on each individual venture. Implications for Venture Capitalists The competition for attractive investments is heating up as economies become more globalized. Thus, the pressure on venture capital firms to operate both efficiently and effectively is also likely to build. It is as yet unclear whether the recent trend toward later stage, safer investments will continue, and how those venture capital firms following this path can differentiate themselves from other sources of capital. Venture capital firms that are able to choose the appropriate bases for determining governance effort and the appropriate roles for delivering added value to their portfolio companies will be those most likely to survive. In the largest, most robust markets (i.e., the United States and the United Kingdom), more effort is expended by venture capitalists to deliver something of value beyond the money. This suggests that the tradeoff preferred by those succeeding is to be more rather than less involved in their investments. Our results indicate that VCs clearly economize on the time they devote to involvement in their portfolio companies. However, our results also indicate that they do this at the great peril of producing value insufficient to justify the cost of their product. Implications for Entrepreneurs Our findings provide two important insights for entrepreneurs. First, they show that where and when they obtain venture capital is likely to have an impact on the extent and nature of effort delivered by their venture capital investors. It appears that on average entrepreneurs receiving venture capital in the United States and the United Kingdom will be more closely monitored and will receive more value-adding effort from their VCs than will those in France or the Netherlands. Needless to say, entrepreneurs should consider their preferences for level and type of involvement from their investors as they consider their choice of partners. In France, for example, VCs put great emphasis on their financial role in comparison with other roles, but they contribute much less than VCs elswhere via other strategic, interpersonal, and networking roles. The second key implication of our findings is that entrepreneurs may be able to gauge what roles VCs will see as most important, when VCs are more or less apt to become involved in their companies, and when they believe they can most add value. Such knowledge may help CEOs anticipate VC activity, be aware of the parameters of VCs' preferences, communicate their own preferences, and negotiate the timing and extent of interaction. For example, although our results indicate that geographic distance significantly limits face-to-face interaction, it appears to have less impact on the amount of value added. Implications for Researchers Much more can be learned about the relative efficiency and effectiveness of alternative governance arrangements. Little is known about how formal structures such as contract covenants and board control work in conjunction with informal oversight and interaction. Even less is known about how value is added and how it is best measured. Although this study took a step toward developing a model of the circumstances under which value is added, the theory and its operationalization await further development.

Human capital, social capital, and innovation: a multi-country study

Abstract: The authors examine the effects of two forms of capital, i.e. human capital and social capital, on innovation at the country level. We use secondary data from the World Development Report on a country's overall human development to test for a relationship between human capital and innovation. We also use previous conceptualizations of social capital as comprising trust, associational activity, and norms of civic behaviour to test for relationships between these indicators of social capital and innovation using data from the World Values Survey. Unlike most previous studies that examined human and social capital within a given country, we develop and empirically test a theoretically grounded model that relates human and social capital to innovation at the societal level across 59 different countries, thus providing a more global view of the role of these two forms of capital in generating value. We find strong support for the positive relationship between human capital and innovation and partial support fo...

Spinning out new ventures: a typology of incubation strategies from European research institutions

Abstract: This paper explores the different incubation strategies for spinning-out companies employed by European Research Institutions. More specifically, we focus on two central questions: (i) What differences or similarities are there in the goals and objectives of the Research Institutions for creating new spinout ventures? (ii) What different incubation strategies are employed to achieve these goals in terms of the resources utilized and activities undertaken? The study uses a two-stage approach. In the first stage, seven spin-out services in five European countries were selected for analysis. At the time of the study, each research institute under analysis had only one unique way to stimulate spin-outs. Therefore, the spin-out service and the particular Research Institution they are associated with are interchangeable as units of analysis. Based upon an in-depth analysis of these seven cases, we identified three distinct incubation models of managing the spin-out process: Low Selective, Supportive, and Incubator. The different incubation models have very different resource implications in managing the process. In particular, we identify resource and competence differences relating to finance, organization, human resources, technology, network, and infrastructure. In the second stage, 43 cases were used to validate these incubation models in terms of resources and activities. This process identified two categories that departed from the normative models, namely, the Resource-Deficient group and the Competence-Deficient group.

The determinants of venture capital funding: evidence across countries

Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants of venture capital for a sample of 21 countries. In particular, we consider the importance of initial public offerings (IPOs), gross domestic product (GDP) and market capitalization growth, labor market rigidities, accounting standards, private pension funds, and government programs. We find that IPOs are the strongest driver of venture capital investing. Private pension fund levels are a significant determinant over time but not across countries. Surprisingly, GDP and market capitalization growth are not significant. Government policies can have a strong impact, both by setting the regulatory stage, and by galvanizing investment during downturns. Finally, we also show that different types of venture capital financing are affected differently by these factors. In particular, early stage venture capital investing is negatively impacted by labor market rigidities, while later stage is not. IPOs have no effect on early stage venture capital investing across countries, but are a significant determinant of later stage venture capital investing across countries. Finally, government funded venture capital has different sensitivities to the determinants of venture capital than non-government funded venture capital. Our insights emphasize the need for a more differentiated approach to venture capital, both from a research as well as from a policy perspective. We feel that while later stage venture capital investing is well understood, early stage and government funded investments still require more extensive research.

35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems

Abstract: Over the last 35 years, business failure prediction has become a major research domain within corporate finance. Numerous corporate failure prediction models have been developed, based on various modelling techniques. The most popular are the classic cross-sectional statistical methods, which have resulted in various ‘single-period’ or static models, especially multivariate discriminant models and logit models. To date, there has been no clear overview and discussion of the application of classic statistical methods to business failure prediction. Therefore, this paper extensively elaborates on the application of (1) univariate analysis, (2) risk index models, (3) multivariate discriminant analysis, and (4) conditional probability models in corporate failure prediction. In addition, because there is no clear and comprehensive analysis in the existing literature of the diverse problems related to the application of these methods to the topic of corporate failure prediction, this paper brings together all problem issues and enlarges upon each of them. It discusses all problems related to: (1) the classical paradigm (i.e. the arbitrary definition of failure, non-stationarity and data instability, sampling selectivity, and the choice of the optimisation criteria); (2) the neglect of the time dimension of failure; and (3) the application focus in failure prediction modelling. Further, the paper elaborates on a number of other problems related to the use of a linear classification rule, the use of annual account information, and neglect of the multidimensional nature of failure. This paper contributes towards a thorough understanding of the features of the classic statistical business failure prediction models and their related problems.