Ian A. Renfrew

Bio: Ian A. Renfrew is an academic researcher from University of East Anglia. The author has contributed to research in topics: Sea ice & Mesoscale meteorology. The author has an hindex of 39, co-authored 109 publications receiving 4249 citations. Previous affiliations of Ian A. Renfrew include Natural Environment Research Council & British Antarctic Survey.

Advancing Polar Prediction Capabilities on Daily to Seasonal Time Scales

Abstract: The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fueled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with fewer in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the p...

A Comparison of Surface Layer and Surface Turbulent Flux Observations over the Labrador Sea with ECMWF Analyses and NCEP Reanalyses

Abstract: Comparisons are made between a time series of meteorological surface layer observational data taken on board the R/V Knorr, and model analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The observational data were gathered during a winter cruise of the R/V Knorr, from 6 February to 13 March 1997, as part of the Labrador Sea Deep Convection Experiment. The surface layer observations generally compare well with both model representations of the wintertime atmosphere. The biases that exist are mainly related to discrepancies in the sea surface temperature or the relative humidity of the analyses. The surface layer observations are used to generate bulk estimates of the surface momentum flux, and the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These are then compared with the model-generated turbulent surface fluxes. The ECMWF surface sensible and latent heat flux time series compare reasonably well, with overestimates of only 13% and 10%, respectively. In contrast, the NCEP model overestimates the bulk fluxes by 51% and 27%, respectively. The differences between the bulk estimates and those of the two models are due to different surface heat flux algorithms. It is shown that the roughness length formula used in the NCEP reanalysis project is inappropriate for moderate to high wind speeds. Its failings are acute for situations of large air–sea temperature difference and high wind speed, that is, for areas of high sensible heat fluxes such as the Labrador Sea, the Norwegian Sea, the Gulf Stream, and the Kuroshio. The new operational NCEP bulk algorithm is found to be more appropriate for such areas. It is concluded that surface turbulent flux fields from the ECMWF are within the bounds of observational uncertainty and therefore suitable for driving ocean models. This is in contrast to the surface flux fields from the NCEP reanalysis project, where the application of a more suitable algorithm to the model surface-layer meteorological data is recommended

Tip Jets and Barrier Winds: A QuikSCAT Climatology of High Wind Speed Events around Greenland.

Abstract: The high topography of Greenland results in a number of orographically induced high wind speed flows along its coast that are of interest from both a severe weather and climate perspective. Here the surface wind field dataset from the NASA–JPL SeaWinds scatterometer on board the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite is used to develop a wintertime climatology of these flows. The high spatial resolution and the twice-daily sampling of the SeaWinds instrument allows for a much more detailed view of the surface winds around Greenland than has been previously possible. Three phenomena stand out as the most distinctive features of the surface wind field during the winter months: the previously identified tip jets and reverse tip jets, as well as the hitherto unrecognized barrier flows along its southeast coast in the vicinity of the Denmark Strait. Peak surface wind speeds associated with these phenomena can be as large as 50 m s 1 with winds over 25 m s 1 occurring approximately 10%–15% of the time at each location. A compositing technique is used to show that each type of flow is the result of an interaction between a synoptic-scale parent cyclone and the high topography of Greenland. In keeping with previous work, it is argued that tip jets are caused by a combination of conservation of the Bernoulli function during orographic descent and acceleration due to flow splitting as stable air passes around Cape Farewell, while barrier winds are a geostrophic response to stable air being forced against high topography. It is proposed that reverse tip jets occur when barrier winds reach the end of the topographic barrier and move from a geostrophic to a gradient wind balance, becoming supergeostrophic as a result of their anticyclonic curvature.

Advances in understanding and parameterization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system : a review

Abstract: . The Arctic climate system includes numerous highly interactive small-scale physical processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. During and since the International Polar Year 2007–2009, significant advances have been made in understanding these processes. Here, these recent advances are reviewed, synthesized, and discussed. In atmospheric physics, the primary advances have been in cloud physics, radiative transfer, mesoscale cyclones, coastal, and fjordic processes as well as in boundary layer processes and surface fluxes. In sea ice and its snow cover, advances have been made in understanding of the surface albedo and its relationships with snow properties, the internal structure of sea ice, the heat and salt transfer in ice, the formation of superimposed ice and snow ice, and the small-scale dynamics of sea ice. For the ocean, significant advances have been related to exchange processes at the ice–ocean interface, diapycnal mixing, double-diffusive convection, tidal currents and diurnal resonance. Despite this recent progress, some of these small-scale physical processes are still not sufficiently understood: these include wave–turbulence interactions in the atmosphere and ocean, the exchange of heat and salt at the ice–ocean interface, and the mechanical weakening of sea ice. Many other processes are reasonably well understood as stand-alone processes but the challenge is to understand their interactions with and impacts and feedbacks on other processes. Uncertainty in the parameterization of small-scale processes continues to be among the greatest challenges facing climate modelling, particularly in high latitudes. Further improvements in parameterization require new year-round field campaigns on the Arctic sea ice, closely combined with satellite remote sensing studies and numerical model experiments.

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves

Abstract: Using satellite laser altimetry, basal melting of ice shelves is determined to be the main driver of Antarctic ice-sheet loss,with changing climate the likely cause. Ice shelves — those parts of the ice sheets that extend over the ocean — are known to provide a buttressing effect that limits the velocity of upstream glaciers and ice streams. In Antarctica, loss of ice shelves has already been implicated in the accelerated motion of some ice masses, but the extent of ice-shelf wasting remained unknown. Now, Pritchard et al. present a complete survey of Antarctic ice-shelf thinning between 2003 and 2008, and reveal loss rates of up to 7 metres per year. Much of the thinning is attributable to wind-driven movement of warm water through deep troughs crossing the continental shelf. The authors conclude that the thinning has led to loss of buttressing strength and accelerated loss of ice mass. Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying1,2 glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins3. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers4. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula5. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted3. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow2. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen6 and Bellingshausen7 seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula8. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

More Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes

Abstract: [1] Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

PERSIANN-CDR: Daily Precipitation Climate Data Record from Multisatellite Observations for Hydrological and Climate Studies

Abstract: A new retrospective satellite-based precipitation dataset is constructed as a climate data record for hydrological and climate studies. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) provides daily and 0.25° rainfall estimates for the latitude band 60°S–60°N for the period of 1 January 1983 to 31 December 2012 (delayed present). PERSIANN-CDR is aimed at addressing the need for a consistent, long-term, high-resolution, and global precipitation dataset for studying the changes and trends in daily precipitation, especially extreme precipitation events, due to climate change and natural variability. PERSIANN-CDR is generated from the PERSIANN algorithm using GridSat-B1 infrared data. It is adjusted using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product to maintain consistency of the two datasets at 2.5° monthly scale throughout the entire record. Three case studies for testing the efficacy of the dataset ...