Ibrahim Hoteit

Bio: Ibrahim Hoteit is an academic researcher from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. The author has contributed to research in topics: Data assimilation & Ensemble Kalman filter. The author has an hindex of 39, co-authored 316 publications receiving 5869 citations. Previous affiliations of Ibrahim Hoteit include Scripps Institution of Oceanography & University of California, San Diego.

Remote sensing the phytoplankton seasonal succession of the Red Sea.

Abstract: The Red Sea holds one of the most diverse marine ecosystems, primarily due to coral reefs. However, knowledge on large-scale phytoplankton dynamics is limited. Analysis of a 10-year high resolution Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) dataset, along with remotely-sensed sea surface temperature and wind, provided a detailed description of the spatiotemporal seasonal succession of phytoplankton biomass in the Red Sea. Based on MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data, four distinct Red Sea provinces and seasons are suggested, covering the major patterns of surface phytoplankton production. The Red Sea Chl-a depicts a distinct seasonality with maximum concentrations seen during the winter time (attributed to vertical mixing in the north and wind-induced horizontal intrusion of nutrient-rich water in the south), and minimum concentrations during the summer (associated with strong seasonal stratification). The initiation of the seasonal succession occurs in autumn and lasts until early spring. However, weekly Chl-a seasonal succession data revealed that during the month of June, consistent anti-cyclonic eddies transfer nutrients and/or Chl-a to the open waters of the central Red Sea. This phenomenon occurs during the stratified nutrient depleted season, and thus could provide an important source of nutrients to the open waters. Remotely-sensed synoptic observations highlight that Chl-a does not increase regularly from north to south as previously thought. The Northern part of the Central Red Sea province appears to be the most oligotrophic area (opposed to southern and northern domains). This is likely due to the absence of strong mixing, which is apparent at the northern end of the Red Sea, and low nutrient intrusion in comparison with the southern end. Although the Red Sea is considered an oligotrophic sea, sporadic blooms occur that reach mesotrophic levels. The water temperature and the prevailing winds control the nutrient concentrations within the euphotic zone and enable the horizontal transportation of nutrients.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

Abstract: Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade−1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 – 2.0 °C before the end of the century1. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea’s thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 – 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade−1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade−1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

A New Approximate Solution of the Optimal Nonlinear Filter for Data Assimilation in Meteorology and Oceanography

Abstract: This paper introduces a new approximate solution of the optimal nonlinear filter suitable for nonlinear oceanic and atmospheric data assimilation problems. The method is based on a local linearization in a low-rank kernel representation of the state's probability density function. In the resulting low-rank kernel particle Kalman (LRKPK) filter, the standard (weight type) particle filter correction is complemented by a Kalman-type correction for each particle using the covariance matrix of the kernel mixture. The LRKPK filter's solution is then obtained as the weighted average of several low-rank square root Kalman filters operating in parallel. The Kalman-type correction reduces the risk of ensemble degeneracy, which enables the filter to efficiently operate with fewer particles than the particle filter. Combined with the low-rank approximation, it allows the implementation of the LRKPK filter with high-dimensional oceanic and atmospheric systems. The new filter is described and its relevance demonstrated through applications with the simple Lorenz model and a realistic configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Mediterranean Sea.

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

Abstract: [1] Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

Abstract: Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

Adaptive Control

Abstract: This book, written by two major figures in adaptive control, provides a wealth of material for researchers, practitioners, and students. While some researchers in adaptive control may note the absence of a particular topic, the book‘s scope represents a high-gain instrument. It can be used by designers of control systems to enhance their work through the information on many new theoretical developments, and can be used by mathematical control theory specialists to adapt their research to practical needs. The book is strongly recommended to anyone interested in adaptive control.

Regularization Of Inverse Problems

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What is a tutorial

Abstract: There are two kinds of tutorial articles: those that provide a primer on an established topic and those that let us in on the ground floor of something of emerging importance. The first type of tutorial can have a noted expert who has been gracious (and brave) enough to write a field guide about a particular topic. The other sort of tutorial typically involves researchers who have each been laboring on a topic for some years. Both sorts of tutorial articles are very much desired. But we, as an editorial board for both Systems and Transactions, know that there has been no logical place for them in the AESS until this series was started several years ago. With these tutorials, we hope to continue to give them a home, a welcome, and provide a service to our membership. We do not intend to publish tutorials on a regular basis, but we hope to deliver them once or twice per year. We need and welcome good, useful tutorial articles (both kinds) in relevant AESS areas. If you, the reader, can offer a topic of interest and an author to write about it, please contact us. Self-nominations are welcome, and even more ideal is a suggestion of an article that the editor(s) can solicit. All articles will be reviewed in detail. Criteria on which they will be judged include their clarity of presentation, relevance, and likely audience, and, of course, their correctness and scientific merit. As to the mathematical level, the articles in this issue are a good guide: in each case the author has striven to explain complicated topics in simple-well, tutorial-terms. There should be no (or very little) novel material: the home for archival science is the Transactions Magazine, and submissions that need to be properly peer reviewed would be rerouted there. Likewise, articles that are interesting and descriptive, but lack significant tutorial content, ought more properly be submitted to the Systems Magazine.