Ibrahim Moghram

Bio: Ibrahim Moghram is an academic researcher from Virginia Tech. The author has contributed to research in topics: Consensus forecast & Exponential smoothing. The author has an hindex of 3, co-authored 4 publications receiving 1251 citations.

Analysis and evaluation of five short-term load forecasting techniques

Abstract: Load forecast has been a central and an integral process in the planning and operation of electric utilities. Many techniques and approaches have been investigated to tackle this problem in the last two decades. These are often different in nature and apply different engineering considerations and economic analyses. In this paper a comparative evaluation of five short-term load forecasting techniques is presented. These techniques are: 1. Multiple Linear Regression; 2. Stochastic Time Series; 3. General Exponential Smoothing; 4. State Space Method; and 5. Knowledge-Based Approach. The authors have applied these algorithms to obtain hourly load forecasts (for up to 24 hours) during the winter and summer peaking seasons. Thus the five forecasting methodologies have been applied to the same database and their performances are directly compared. The forecast error analyses are provided in Tables 1 and 2 for the winter and summer days respectively. As these results are based on forecasts of two single days, these should be used for comparative purposes only. Some interesting observations are made about the results presented in Tables 1 and 2. For example, for the peak summer day the transfer function (TF) approach gave the best result, whereas for the peak winter day the TF approach resulted in the next to the worst accuracy. During the peak summer day the temperature profile was typical whereas during the peak winter day the profile was unseasonal.

Application of a rule-based technique to weekly load forecast

Abstract: The application of rule-based techniques to a weekly (168 h) load forecast is discussed. A rule-based algorithm is developed that is capable of issuing a 168 h lead-time load forecast. The algorithm is written using the FORTRAN language. The database requirement for this algorithm does not extend beyond more than four weeks of hourly load and few weather variables. Results of this algorithm in its current form for the summer season using actual weather information is encouraging compared to those that could be obtained using statistical techniques. For example, the 168 h load forecast, as applied to the load data of a southeastern US utility for the full month of August 1983, has resulted in absolute average forecast error of 2.5% with a standard deviation of 2.3%. >

Knowledge-based and statistical load forecast model development and analysis

Abstract: Most of the techniques that have been applied to the short-term load forecasting problem fall within the time series approaches. The exception to this has been a new approach based on the application of expert systems. Recently several techniques have been reported which apply the rule-based (or expert systems) approach to the short-term load forecasting problem. However, the maximum lead time used for these forecasts has not gone beyond 48 hours, even though there is a significant difference between these algorithms in terms of their data base requirements (few weeks to 10 years). The work reported in this dissertation deals with two aspects. The first one is the application of rule-based techniques to weekly load forecast. A rule-based technique is presented that is capable of issuing a 168-hour lead-time load forecast. The second aspect is the development of a comprehensive load forecasting system that utilizes both the statistical and rule-based approaches. This integration overcomes the deficiencies that exist in both of these modeling techniques. The load forecasting technique is developed using two parallel approaches. In the first approach expert information is used to identify weather variables, day types and diurnal effects that influence the electrical utility load. These parameters and hourly historical loads are then selectively used for various statistical techniques (e.g., univariate, transfer function and linear regression). A weighted average load forecast is then produced which judiciously combines the forecasts from these three techniques. The second approach, however, is free of any significant statistical computation, and is based totally on rules derived from electric utility experts. The data base requirement for any of these approaches do not extend more than four weeks hourly load, dry bulb and dew point temperatures.When the algorithms are applied to generate seven-day ahead load forecasts for summer (August) and winter (February) the average forecast errors for the month come under 3%.

Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: a review and evaluation

Abstract: Load forecasting has become one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering, and most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (NNs) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests with them. Nevertheless, some authors remain skeptical, and believe that the advantages of using NNs in forecasting have not been systematically proved yet. In order to investigate the reasons for such skepticism, this review examines a collection of papers (published between 1991 and 1999) that report the application of NNs to short-term load forecasting. Our aim is to help to clarify the issue, by critically evaluating the ways in which the NNs proposed in these papers were designed and tested.

Energy models for demand forecasting—A review

Abstract: Energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation – be it social, economic or environment. In the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally. Energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security. Energy is linked to industrial production, agricultural output, health, access to water, population, education, quality of life, etc. Energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources. During the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs. In this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models. Traditional methods such as time series, regression, econometric, ARIMA as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic, genetic algorithm, and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management. Support vector regression, ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting. Bottom up models such as MARKAL and LEAP are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management.

Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach

Abstract: Preface. Acknowledgments. 1 Complex Electricity Markets. 1.1 Liberalization. 1.2 The Marketplace. 1.2.1 Power Pools and Power Exchanges. 1.2.2 Nodal and Zonal Pricing. 1.2.3 Market Structure. 1.2.4 Traded Products. 1.3 Europe. 1.3.1 The England and Wales Electricity Market. 1.3.2 The Nordic Market. 1.3.3 Price Setting at Nord Pool. 1.3.4 Continental Europe 13. 1.4 North America. 1.4.1 PJM Interconnection. 1.4.2 California and the Electricity Crisis. 1.4.3 Alberta and Ontario. 1.5 Australia and New Zealand. 1.6 Summary. 1.7 Further Reading. 2 Stylized Facts of Electricity Loads and Prices. 2.1 Introduction. 2.2 Price Spikes. 2.2.1 Case Study: The June 1998 Cinergy Price Spike. 2.2.2 When Supply Meets Demand. 2.2.3 What is Causing the Spikes?. 2.2.4 The Definition. 2.3 Seasonality. 2.3.1 Measuring Serial Correlation. 2.3.2 Spectral Analysis and the Periodogram. 2.3.3 Case Study: Seasonal Behavior of Electricity Prices and Loads. 2.4 Seasonal Decomposition. 2.4.1 Differencing. 2.4.2 Mean or Median Week. 2.4.3 Moving Average Technique. 2.4.4 Annual Seasonality and Spectral Decomposition. 2.4.5 Rolling Volatility Technique. 2.4.6 Case Study: Rolling Volatility in Practice. 2.4.7 Wavelet Decomposition. 2.4.8 Case Study: Wavelet Filtering of Nord Pool Hourly System Prices. 2.5 Mean Reversion. 2.5.1 R/S Analysis. 2.5.2 Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. 2.5.3 Periodogram Regression. 2.5.4 Average Wavelet Coefficient. 2.5.5 Case Study: Anti-persistence of Electricity Prices. 2.6 Distributions of Electricity Prices. 2.6.1 Stable Distributions. 2.6.2 Hyperbolic Distributions. 2.6.3 Case Study: Distribution of EEX Spot Prices. 2.6.4 Further Empirical Evidence and Possible Applications. 2.7 Summary. 2.8 Further Reading. 3 Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads. 3.1 Introduction. 3.2 Factors Affecting Load Patterns. 3.2.1 Case Study: Dealing with Missing Values and Outliers. 3.2.2 Time Factors. 3.2.3 Weather Conditions. 3.2.4 Case Study: California Weather vs Load. 3.2.5 Other Factors. 3.3 Overview of Artificial Intelligence-Based Methods. 3.4 Statistical Methods. 3.4.1 Similar-Day Method. 3.4.2 Exponential Smoothing. 3.4.3 Regression Methods. 3.4.4 Autoregressive Model. 3.4.5 Autoregressive Moving Average Model. 3.4.6 ARMA Model Identification. 3.4.7 Case Study: Modeling Daily Loads in California. 3.4.8 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model. 3.4.9 Time Series Models with Exogenous Variables. 3.4.10 Case Study: Modeling Daily Loads in California with Exogenous Variables. 3.5 Summary. 3.6 Further Reading. 4 Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Prices. 4.1 Introduction. 4.2 Overview of Modeling Approaches. 4.3 Statistical Methods and Price Forecasting. 4.3.1 Exogenous Factors. 4.3.2 Spike Preprocessing. 4.3.3 How to Assess the Quality of Price Forecasts. 4.3.4 ARMA-type Models. 4.3.5 Time Series Models with Exogenous Variables. 4.3.6 Autoregressive GARCH Models. 4.3.7 Case Study: Forecasting Hourly CalPX Spot Prices with Linear Models. 4.3.8 Case Study: Is Spike Preprocessing Advantageous?. 4.3.9 Regime-Switching Models. 4.3.10 Calibration of Regime-Switching Models. 4.3.11 Case Study: Forecasting Hourly CalPX Spot Prices with Regime-Switching Models. 4.3.12 Interval Forecasts. 4.4 Quantitative Models and Derivatives Valuation. 4.4.1 Jump-Diffusion Models. 4.4.2 Calibration of Jump-Diffusion Models. 4.4.3 Case Study: A Mean-Reverting Jump-Diffusion Model for Nord Pool Spot Prices. 4.4.4 Hybrid Models. 4.4.5 Case Study: Regime-Switching Models for Nord Pool Spot Prices. 4.4.6 Hedging and the Use of Derivatives. 4.4.7 Derivatives Pricing and the Market Price of Risk. 4.4.8 Case Study: Asian-Style Electricity Options. 4.5 Summary. 4.6 Further Reading. Bibliography. Index.

Electric load forecasting: Literature survey and classification of methods

Abstract: A review and categorization of electric load forecasting techniques is presented. A wide range of methodologies and models for forecasting are given in the literature. These techniques are classified here into nine categories: (1) multiple regression, (2) exponential smoothing, (3) iterative reweighted least-squares, (4) adaptive load forecasting, (5) stochastic time series, (6) ARMAX models based on genetic algorithms, (7) fuzzy logic, (8) neural networks and (9) expert systems. The methodology for each category is briefly described, the advantages and disadvantages discussed, and the pertinent literature reviewed. Conclusions and comments are made on future research directions.