Igor Chugunov

Bio: Igor Chugunov is an academic researcher from Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics. The author has contributed to research in topics: Fiscal policy & Index (economics). The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 17 publications receiving 64 citations.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy of Economic Development

Abstract: Fiscal and monetary policy coordination should focus on increasing public welfare and maintaining long-term macroeconomic stability. This article aims to enhance the theoretical and methodological basis of fiscal and monetary policy formation and determine the priority areas for improving their coordination to ensure sustainable economic development. We developed an institutional approach to study the fiscal-monetary mix. It is advisable to create favorable monetary conditions for fiscal measures and form a balanced budget for monetary regulation. The authors proposed the structural-functional model that highlights both fiscal and monetary policies’ impact on aggregate demand. The results showed no positive effects of general government expenditures on the GDP per capita growth in 19 emerging economies from 1995 to 2018. The influence of public spending on economic growth depends on institutions’ quality, the composition of expenditures, and fiscal architecture. The expediency of increasing the share of productive expenditures that positively affect stimulating the economy is substantiated. In the long-run, monetary policy should ensure a comprehensive combination of inflation targeting conditions, the adaptive use of tools to achieve intermediate and final targets.

Budget Policy of Social Development

Abstract: The monograph is devoted to the development of methodological and institutional framework for the formation of fiscal policy to ensure social development. The essence and role of budget regulation in supporting the processes of endogenous economic growth are revealed. The experience of the implementation of fiscal policy in countries with developed and transformational economies is systematized. The directions of increasing the efficiency and strengthening the regulatory potential of the state tax policy are proposed. An assessment of the tax burden on labor and consumption in 2001–2017 is carried out; a comparative analysis of the values of the corresponding indicators in Ukraine and the European Union member countries is carried out. The factors that affect the fiscal significance of the value added tax, excise tax, income tax, personal income tax are identified. Provisions for enhancing the effectiveness of the institutional architectonics of the budget system are improved. Directions for improving the efficiency of budget expenditures are substantiated. The analysis of the influence of the main factors on the dynamics of changes in the ratio of public debt to GDP is carried out; it is established that inflation affected the most, and the exchange rate influenced the increase. An approach to assessing the state of debt security of the country is proposed, the conceptual framework for managing the budget deficit and public debt is defined. Provisions for the implementation of long-term budget planning and forecasting are developed. Institutional framework for the formation of the budget strategy is improved. The conceptual foundations of state financial support for human development are defined. A long-term budget strategy is developed, taking into account the cyclical nature of economic development. The conducted scientific research allows identifying the possibilities of positive influence of the budget policy on social development in the context of improving the quality of the institutional environment.

Fiscal stimuli and consolidation in emerging market economies

Abstract: The Great Recession has imposed vital limitations on the policy maker’s ability to react to further economic challenges. In this article, the authors set a purpose to assess the expediency and the size of fiscal consolidation or expansionary measures for countries with emerging markets depending on economic dynamics. The data on the episodes of large changes in fiscal policy, representing both fiscal stimuli and consolidation in Ukraine and in the EU countries with emerging market economies from 2001 to 2017, were evaluated. The authors examined the main reasons of fiscal policy’s volatility and its impact on economic growth. The countries with low and medium level of institutional framework for fiscal policy formulation could face permanent deficit and public debt problem. Episodes of expansionary fiscal adjustments based on government revenues cuts and spending increases were more effective compared with those that were entirely based on spending increases. Empirical investigation showed that successful fiscal consolidation measures obligatory included the government primary spending reduction. In those cases, the budget deficit-to-GDP and public debt-to-GDP ratios were declined. Medium-term priorities to develop the methodical bases of fiscal policy design were justified.

Fiscal policy for economic development

Abstract: Urgency of the research. Commonly, tax and budget instruments’ nature and degree of influence on the economic development depend on the share of GDP redistribution through the public finance system. But it isn’t the one and only influencing factor. The national fiscal architectonics model and the quality of state institutions are essential as well. Target setting. Under modern conditions of the global economy delayed growth rate, the further development of the statements on the possibility evaluation of discretionary fiscal policy measures implementation, their scope and composition to accelerate economic growth is advisable. Analysis of resent researches and publication. The questions of determining the fiscal policy role for the economic development regulation are explored in numerous works written by P. Arestis, G. Dell’Ariccia, A. Afonso, R. J. Barro, O. Blanchard, E. M. Engen, P. Mauro, V. Tanzi, I. Chugunov, D. Furceri etc. Uninvestigated parts of general matters defining. At the present development stage of financial relations, it is important to deepen the scientific research in the area of estimating the budget and tax instruments’ value and degree of influence on the country’s economic development dynamics. The research objective. The main aim of this article is to develop theoretical and methodological principles of fiscal policy formation in the context of providing the necessary prerequisites for a long-term economic growth. The statement of basic materials. Using the convergence of neoclassical and neo-Keynesian approaches as well as correlation and regression analysis methods, the influence of such factors as the level and the structure of taxation, the budget expenditures, the budget deficit, and the public debt on economic development was examined in this article. Conclusions. In modern conditions, fiscal policy has a significant regulatory impact on the economic processes by an integrated combination of fiscal architectonics instruments (taking into account the variation of composite structure models, time lags, and economic cycles).

Budget strategy in the conditions of economic globalization

Abstract: Economic changes create a strong need for the reconsideration of the system of financial and budgetary knowledge and paradigms already created in developed countries regarding the possibility of their use in the countries with developing economies. In this article, the authors clarify that the process of formation of the efficient and mutually agreed budget policy with strategic tasks of the social and economical development of countries requires development of the budget strategy. Its essence is the dynamic realization of the system of goals, principles, directions, tasks of state authorities, co-ordination and adequacy of their long-term regulatory measures to internal and external changes in the economic environment and social transformations aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability, accelerating economic growth and improving the well-being of the population. The principles of budget strategy development have been clearly defined: scientific substantiation; integrity; efficiency; systematic approach; adaptability; variability; interdependence; purposefulness; sociality; legitimacy. The share of government expenditures, budget deficit and public debt in the gross domestic product in the EU and Ukraine has been estimated. The priority directions of budget strategies in the conditions of economic transformations have been defined, in particular, regarding the increase of efficiency of public expenditures and establishment of restrictions on their level of growth; improvement of the mechanism for managing budget deficits, public debt and guarantees and reduction of their limits. The research has demonstrated a huge influence of the budget strategy on the social and economical processes and on the development of the social relations.

Inflation Targeting Regimes

Abstract: This paper classifies countries that define their monetary policy framework by an inflation target into full-fledged inflation targeters, eclectic inflation targeters and inflation targeting lite regimes. This classification is based on indicators of the clarity and credibility of the commitment to the inflation target. The three regimes can be viewed as corresponding to different welfare maximizing combinations of policy objectives, each conditional on a country's "endowed" level of credibility. The credibility of the regimes is related empirically to structural differences. Policy implications are drawn, especially for emerging market countries aiming at full-fledged inflation targeting.

Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth

Abstract: Research that seeks to estimate the effects of fiscal policies on economic growth has ignored the role of public debt in this relationship. This study proposes a theoretical model of endogenous growth, which demonstrates that the level of the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio should negatively impact the effect of fiscal policy on growth. This occurs because government indebtedness extracts part of the savings of the young to pay interest on the debts of the older generation, who are no longer saving. Therefore, the payment of debt interest assumes an allocation exchange role between generations that is similar to a pay-as-you-go pension system, which results in changes in the savings rate of the economy. The major conclusions of the theoretical model were tested using an econometric model to provide evidence for the validity of this conclusion. Our empirical analysis controls for timeinvariant, country-specific heterogeneity in the growth rates. We also address endogeneity issues and allow for heterogeneity across countries in the model parameters and for cross-sectional dependence.

Fiscal Behaviour in the European Union: Rules, Fiscal Decentralization and Government Indebtedness

Abstract: We assess the fiscal behaviour in the European Union countries for the period 1990- 2005 via the responsiveness of budget balances to several determinants. The results show that the existence of effective fiscal rules, the degree of public spending decentralization, and the electoral cycle can impinge on the country’s fiscal position. Furthermore, the results also support the responsiveness of primary balances to government indebtedness. Key words: fiscal regimes, fiscal rules, fiscal decentralization, European Union, panel data

Fiscal policies, public investments and wellbeing: mapping the evolution of the EU

Abstract: The European Union faced several crises in the last twenty years that destabilized its macroeconomic equilibrium and development capacity. Standard economic methodologies were capable of neither predicting nor completely solving these crises through appropriate investments. To understand the overall development performance, the well-known Human Development Index (HDI) is the most widely deployed conceptual framework. In this article, we look at the components of welfare dynamics in the EU by examining socioeconomic performance. Through a 'beyond gross domestic product (GDP)' * The research is conceptually related to the activities of the European Topic Centre on Waste, materials and the Green Economy (ETC WMGE, European Environment Agency). It is also within the research activities of the 2018-2022 UNIFE project on Circular economy, Innovations and SMEs funded by MIUR Italian ministry under the 'Departments of excellence' programme, and the activities of the related CERCIS research centre on Circular Economy, Innovation and SMEs.