世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

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Likelihood Based Inference In Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fpalgrave.ces.8100210.pdf

Multinational Firms in the World Economy

http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/20578/1/International%20Review%20of%20Financial%20Analysis_GF.pdf

Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries

This essay surveys macroeconomic issues that marked the transition from centrally planned to market economy in Central and Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries. We first establish a set of stylized facts of the transition so far, namely: (1) output fell, (2) capital shrank, (3) labor moved, (4) trade reoriented, (5) the structure changed, (6) institutions collapsed, and (7) transition costs. We then critically survey the theoretical literature on transition, discussing various explanations for the initial output fall as well as medium term issues, such as optimal speed of transition, disorganization, institutions and sectoral reallocation as a source of output dynamics. Last, we review the empirical literature to assess how well it translates the theoretical models and explains the stylized facts. The essay concludes with a succinct list of suggestions for future research.

Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't and What We Should

We review the literature on business cycle correlation between the euro area and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention as the newest EU members approach monetary union. Our meta-analysis of 35 identified publications suggests some CEECs already have comparably high correlation with the euro area business cycle. We find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients. While CEEC central bankers tend to be more conservative in their estimates than academics or eurosystem researchers, we find no evidence of a geographical bias in the studies.

Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation Between the Euro Area and the CEECs

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19157/1/cesifo1_wp1693.pdf

Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs

We analyze the transmission of global financial crisis to business cycles in China and India. The pattern of business cycles in emerging Asian economies generally displays a low degree of synchronization with the OECD countries, which is consistent with the decoupling hypothesis. By contrast, however, the current financial crisis has had a significant effect on economic developments in emerging Asian economies. Applying dynamic correlations, we find wide differences for different frequencies of cyclical development. More specifically, at business cycle frequencies, dynamic correlations are typically low or negative, but they are also influenced most by the global financial crisis. Finally, we find a significant link between trade ties and dynamic correlations of GDP growth rates in emerging Asian countries and OECD countries.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1437491_code1259952.pdf?abstractid=1437491&mirid=1

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies

We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between the countries of the euro area and the accession countries in the 1990s. Shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation. We find that some accession countries have a quite high correlation of the underlying shocks with the euro area. However, even for many advanced accession countries, the shocks remain significantly more idiosyncratic. Furthermore, many EU countries seem to have a much higher correlation with the core euro area countries than in the previous decades. Continuing integration within the EU seems to have aligned the business cycles of these countries as well.

/pdf/similarity-of-supply-and-demand-shocks-between-the-euro-area-1k53m427xl.pdf

Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs

https://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/9128.pdf

Iikka Korhonen

Papers

Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation Between the Euro Area and the CEECs

Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies

Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs

Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs