Ioanna Tzoulaki

Bio: Ioanna Tzoulaki is an academic researcher from Imperial College London. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Medicine. The author has an hindex of 68, co-authored 257 publications receiving 20323 citations. Previous affiliations of Ioanna Tzoulaki include Health Protection Agency & University of Edinburgh.

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal

Abstract: Objective To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease. Design Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group. Data sources PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020. Study selection Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model. Data extraction At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool). Results 37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models. Conclusion Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline. Systematic review registration Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245. Readers’ note This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk

Abstract: Blood pressure is a heritable trait(1) influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (>= 140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or >= 90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure)(2). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events(3). This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention.

Salt intakes around the world: implications for public health

Abstract: Background High levels of dietary sodium (consumed as common salt, sodium chloride) are associated with raised blood pressure and adverse cardiovascular health. Despite this, public health efforts to reduce sodium consumption remain limited to a few countries. Comprehensive, contemporaneous sodium intake data from around the world are needed to inform national/international public health initiatives to reduce sodium consumption. Methods Use of standardized 24-h sodium excretion estimates for adults from the international INTERSALT (1985–87) and INTERMAP (1996–99) studies, and recent dietary and urinary sodium data from observational or interventional studies—identified by a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and ‘grey’ literature—presented separately for adults and children. Review of methods for the estimation of sodium intake/ excretion. Main food sources of sodium are presented for several Asian, European and Northern American countries, including previously unpublished INTERMAP data.

Vitamin D and multiple health outcomes: umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies and randomised trials

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the breadth, validity, and presence of biases of the associations of vitamin D with diverse outcomes.

2013 ESH/ESC Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension: The Task Force for the management of arterial hypertension of the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).

Abstract: ABCD : Appropriate Blood pressure Control in Diabetes ABI : ankle–brachial index ABPM : ambulatory blood pressure monitoring ACCESS : Acute Candesartan Cilexetil Therapy in Stroke Survival ACCOMPLISH : Avoiding Cardiovascular Events in Combination Therapy in Patients Living with Systolic Hypertension ACCORD : Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes ACE : angiotensin-converting enzyme ACTIVE I : Atrial Fibrillation Clopidogrel Trial with Irbesartan for Prevention of Vascular Events ADVANCE : Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR Controlled Evaluation AHEAD : Action for HEAlth in Diabetes ALLHAT : Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart ATtack ALTITUDE : ALiskiren Trial In Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardio-renal Endpoints ANTIPAF : ANgioTensin II Antagonist In Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation APOLLO : A Randomized Controlled Trial of Aliskiren in the Prevention of Major Cardiovascular Events in Elderly People ARB : angiotensin receptor blocker ARIC : Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities ARR : aldosterone renin ratio ASCOT : Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial ASCOT-LLA : Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial—Lipid Lowering Arm ASTRAL : Angioplasty and STenting for Renal Artery Lesions A-V : atrioventricular BB : beta-blocker BMI : body mass index BP : blood pressure BSA : body surface area CA : calcium antagonist CABG : coronary artery bypass graft CAPPP : CAPtopril Prevention Project CAPRAF : CAndesartan in the Prevention of Relapsing Atrial Fibrillation CHD : coronary heart disease CHHIPS : Controlling Hypertension and Hypertension Immediately Post-Stroke CKD : chronic kidney disease CKD-EPI : Chronic Kidney Disease—EPIdemiology collaboration CONVINCE : Controlled ONset Verapamil INvestigation of CV Endpoints CT : computed tomography CV : cardiovascular CVD : cardiovascular disease D : diuretic DASH : Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension DBP : diastolic blood pressure DCCT : Diabetes Control and Complications Study DIRECT : DIabetic REtinopathy Candesartan Trials DM : diabetes mellitus DPP-4 : dipeptidyl peptidase 4 EAS : European Atherosclerosis Society EASD : European Association for the Study of Diabetes ECG : electrocardiogram EF : ejection fraction eGFR : estimated glomerular filtration rate ELSA : European Lacidipine Study on Atherosclerosis ESC : European Society of Cardiology ESH : European Society of Hypertension ESRD : end-stage renal disease EXPLOR : Amlodipine–Valsartan Combination Decreases Central Systolic Blood Pressure more Effectively than the Amlodipine–Atenolol Combination FDA : U.S. Food and Drug Administration FEVER : Felodipine EVent Reduction study GISSI-AF : Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico-Atrial Fibrillation HbA1c : glycated haemoglobin HBPM : home blood pressure monitoring HOPE : Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation HOT : Hypertension Optimal Treatment HRT : hormone replacement therapy HT : hypertension HYVET : HYpertension in the Very Elderly Trial IMT : intima-media thickness I-PRESERVE : Irbesartan in Heart Failure with Preserved Systolic Function INTERHEART : Effect of Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors associated with Myocardial Infarction in 52 Countries INVEST : INternational VErapamil SR/T Trandolapril ISH : Isolated systolic hypertension JNC : Joint National Committee JUPITER : Justification for the Use of Statins in Primary Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin LAVi : left atrial volume index LIFE : Losartan Intervention For Endpoint Reduction in Hypertensives LV : left ventricle/left ventricular LVH : left ventricular hypertrophy LVM : left ventricular mass MDRD : Modification of Diet in Renal Disease MRFIT : Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial MRI : magnetic resonance imaging NORDIL : The Nordic Diltiazem Intervention study OC : oral contraceptive OD : organ damage ONTARGET : ONgoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial PAD : peripheral artery disease PATHS : Prevention And Treatment of Hypertension Study PCI : percutaneous coronary intervention PPAR : peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor PREVEND : Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENdstage Disease PROFESS : Prevention Regimen for Effectively Avoiding Secondary Strokes PROGRESS : Perindopril Protection Against Recurrent Stroke Study PWV : pulse wave velocity QALY : Quality adjusted life years RAA : renin-angiotensin-aldosterone RAS : renin-angiotensin system RCT : randomized controlled trials RF : risk factor ROADMAP : Randomized Olmesartan And Diabetes MicroAlbuminuria Prevention SBP : systolic blood pressure SCAST : Angiotensin-Receptor Blocker Candesartan for Treatment of Acute STroke SCOPE : Study on COgnition and Prognosis in the Elderly SCORE : Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation SHEP : Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program STOP : Swedish Trials in Old Patients with Hypertension STOP-2 : The second Swedish Trial in Old Patients with Hypertension SYSTCHINA : SYSTolic Hypertension in the Elderly: Chinese trial SYSTEUR : SYSTolic Hypertension in Europe TIA : transient ischaemic attack TOHP : Trials Of Hypertension Prevention TRANSCEND : Telmisartan Randomised AssessmeNt Study in ACE iNtolerant subjects with cardiovascular Disease UKPDS : United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study VADT : Veterans' Affairs Diabetes Trial VALUE : Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation WHO : World Health Organization ### 1.1 Principles The 2013 guidelines on hypertension of the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and the European Society of Cardiology …

Standards of Medical Care in Diabetes

Abstract: XI. STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVING DIABETES CARE D iabetes is a chronic illness that requires continuing medical care and patient self-management education to prevent acute complications and to reduce the risk of long-term complications. Diabetes care is complex and requires that many issues, beyond glycemic control, be addressed. A large body of evidence exists that supports a range of interventions to improve diabetes outcomes. These standards of care are intended to provide clinicians, patients, researchers, payors, and other interested individuals with the components of diabetes care, treatment goals, and tools to evaluate the quality of care. While individual preferences, comorbidities, and other patient factors may require modification of goals, targets that are desirable for most patients with diabetes are provided. These standards are not intended to preclude more extensive evaluation and management of the patient by other specialists as needed. For more detailed information, refer to Bode (Ed.): Medical Management of Type 1 Diabetes (1), Burant (Ed): Medical Management of Type 2 Diabetes (2), and Klingensmith (Ed): Intensive Diabetes Management (3). The recommendations included are diagnostic and therapeutic actions that are known or believed to favorably affect health outcomes of patients with diabetes. A grading system (Table 1), developed by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and modeled after existing methods, was utilized to clarify and codify the evidence that forms the basis for the recommendations. The level of evidence that supports each recommendation is listed after each recommendation using the letters A, B, C, or E.

European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice (Version 2012)

Abstract: ABI : ankle–brachial index ACCORD : Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes ADVANCE : Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation AGREE : Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation AHA : American Heart Association apoA1 : apolipoprotein A1 apoB : apolipoprotein B CABG : coronary artery bypass graft surgery CARDS : Collaborative AtoRvastatin Diabetes Study CCNAP : Council on Cardiovascular Nursing and Allied Professions CHARISMA : Clopidogrel for High Athero-thrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilisation, Management, and Avoidance CHD : coronary heart disease CKD : chronic kidney disease COMMIT : Clopidogrel and Metoprolol in Myocardial Infarction Trial CRP : C-reactive protein CURE : Clopidogrel in Unstable Angina to Prevent Recurrent Events CVD : cardiovascular disease DALYs : disability-adjusted life years DBP : diastolic blood pressure DCCT : Diabetes Control and Complications Trial ED : erectile dysfunction eGFR : estimated glomerular filtration rate EHN : European Heart Network EPIC : European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition EUROASPIRE : European Action on Secondary and Primary Prevention through Intervention to Reduce Events GFR : glomerular filtration rate GOSPEL : Global Secondary Prevention Strategies to Limit Event Recurrence After MI GRADE : Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation HbA1c : glycated haemoglobin HDL : high-density lipoprotein HF-ACTION : Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing HOT : Hypertension Optimal Treatment Study HPS : Heart Protection Study HR : hazard ratio hsCRP : high-sensitivity C-reactive protein HYVET : Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial ICD : International Classification of Diseases IMT : intima-media thickness INVEST : International Verapamil SR/Trandolapril JTF : Joint Task Force LDL : low-density lipoprotein Lp(a) : lipoprotein(a) LpPLA2 : lipoprotein-associated phospholipase 2 LVH : left ventricular hypertrophy MATCH : Management of Atherothrombosis with Clopidogrel in High-risk Patients with Recent Transient Ischaemic Attack or Ischaemic Stroke MDRD : Modification of Diet in Renal Disease MET : metabolic equivalent MONICA : Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease NICE : National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence NRT : nicotine replacement therapy NSTEMI : non-ST elevation myocardial infarction ONTARGET : Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial OSA : obstructive sleep apnoea PAD : peripheral artery disease PCI : percutaneous coronary intervention PROactive : Prospective Pioglitazone Clinical Trial in Macrovascular Events PWV : pulse wave velocity QOF : Quality and Outcomes Framework RCT : randomized clinical trial RR : relative risk SBP : systolic blood pressure SCORE : Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project SEARCH : Study of the Effectiveness of Additional Reductions in Cholesterol and SHEP : Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program STEMI : ST-elevation myocardial infarction SU.FOL.OM3 : SUpplementation with FOlate, vitamin B6 and B12 and/or OMega-3 fatty acids Syst-Eur : Systolic Hypertension in Europe TNT : Treating to New Targets UKPDS : United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study VADT : Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial VALUE : Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use VITATOPS : VITAmins TO Prevent Stroke VLDL : very low-density lipoprotein WHO : World Health Organization ### 1.1 Introduction Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a chronic disorder developing insidiously throughout life and usually progressing to an advanced stage by the time symptoms occur. It remains the major cause of premature death in Europe, even though CVD mortality has …

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

Abstract: WRITING GROUP MEMBERS Emelia J. Benjamin, MD, SCM, FAHA Michael J. Blaha, MD, MPH Stephanie E. Chiuve, ScD Mary Cushman, MD, MSc, FAHA Sandeep R. Das, MD, MPH, FAHA Rajat Deo, MD, MTR Sarah D. de Ferranti, MD, MPH James Floyd, MD, MS Myriam Fornage, PhD, FAHA Cathleen Gillespie, MS Carmen R. Isasi, MD, PhD, FAHA Monik C. Jiménez, ScD, SM Lori Chaffin Jordan, MD, PhD Suzanne E. Judd, PhD Daniel Lackland, DrPH, FAHA Judith H. Lichtman, PhD, MPH, FAHA Lynda Lisabeth, PhD, MPH, FAHA Simin Liu, MD, ScD, FAHA Chris T. Longenecker, MD Rachel H. Mackey, PhD, MPH, FAHA Kunihiro Matsushita, MD, PhD, FAHA Dariush Mozaffarian, MD, DrPH, FAHA Michael E. Mussolino, PhD, FAHA Khurram Nasir, MD, MPH, FAHA Robert W. Neumar, MD, PhD, FAHA Latha Palaniappan, MD, MS, FAHA Dilip K. Pandey, MBBS, MS, PhD, FAHA Ravi R. Thiagarajan, MD, MPH Mathew J. Reeves, PhD Matthew Ritchey, PT, DPT, OCS, MPH Carlos J. Rodriguez, MD, MPH, FAHA Gregory A. Roth, MD, MPH Wayne D. Rosamond, PhD, FAHA Comilla Sasson, MD, PhD, FAHA Amytis Towfighi, MD Connie W. Tsao, MD, MPH Melanie B. Turner, MPH Salim S. Virani, MD, PhD, FAHA Jenifer H. Voeks, PhD Joshua Z. Willey, MD, MS John T. Wilkins, MD Jason HY. Wu, MSc, PhD, FAHA Heather M. Alger, PhD Sally S. Wong, PhD, RD, CDN, FAHA Paul Muntner, PhD, MHSc On behalf of the American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update