▪ Abstract A moment estimator of θ, the coancestry coefficient for alleles within a population, was described by Weir & Cockerham in 1984 (100) and is still widely cited. The estimate is used by population geneticists to characterize population structure, by ecologists to estimate migration rates, by animal breeders to describe genetic variation, and by forensic scientists to quantify the strength of matching DNA profiles. This review extends the work of Weir & Cockerham by allowing different levels of coancestry for different populations, and by allowing non-zero coancestries between pairs of populations. All estimates are relative to the average value of θ between pairs of populations. Moment estimates for within- and between-population θ values are likely to have large sampling variances, although these may be reduced by combining information over loci. Variances also decrease with the numbers of alleles at a locus, and with the numbers of populations sampled. This review also extends the work of Weir ...

/pdf/estimating-f-statistics-1ebbuswywe.pdf

Estimating F-statistics.

Summary In 10,844 parent/child allelic transfers at nine short-tandem-repeat (STR) loci, 23 isolated STR mismatches were observed. The parenthood in each of these cases was highly validated (probability >99.97%). The event was always repeat related, owing to either a single-step mutation ( n =22) or a double-step mutation ( n =1). The mutation rate was between 0 and 7×10 −3 per locus per gamete per generation. No mutations were observed in three of the nine loci. Mutation events in the male germ line were five to six times more frequent than in the female germ line. A positive exponential correlation between the geometric mean of the number of uninterrupted repeats and the mutation rate was observed. Our data demonstrate that mutation rates of different loci can differ by several orders of magnitude and that different alleles at one locus exhibit different mutation rates.

/pdf/mutation-rate-in-human-microsatellites-influence-of-the-2cnzbl27io.pdf

Mutation rate in human microsatellites: influence of the structure and length of the tandem repeat.

Sherlock Holmes said "it has long been an axiom of mine that the little things are infinitely the most important", but never imagined that such a little thing, the DNA molecule, could become perhaps the most powerful single tool in the multifaceted fight against crime. Twenty years after the development of DNA fingerprinting, forensic DNA analysis is key to the conviction or exoneration of suspects and the identification of victims of crimes, accidents and disasters, driving the development of innovative methods in molecular genetics, statistics and the use of massive intelligence databases.

/pdf/encoded-evidence-dna-in-forensic-analysis-3q4hcjdcbc.pdf

Encoded evidence: DNA in forensic analysis

Calcul des Probabilités. By Paul Lévy. Pp. 350. Fr. 40. 1925. (Gauthier-Villars.)

A hierarchy of propositions: deciding which level to address in casework

http://angelarees.pbworks.com/f/case+assessment.pdf

A model for case assessment and interpretation.

http://www.chemometry.com/Index/Anti-doping/Literature/Forensic%20science/Evett,%20Science%20&%20Justice,%2040%20(2000)%20233-239.pdf

The impact of the principles of evidence interpretation on the structure and content of statements.

More on the hierarchy of propositions: exploring the distinction between explanations and propositions.

This paper establishes a logical framework for taking account of peak areas when interpreting mixed DNA STR profiles. The principles apply wherever such data are available but they are illustrated here by means of data which have been collected from made up mixtures of known concentrations analyzed at short tandem repeat loci. The data have led to some modeling assumptions which are used for numerical examples. In actual casework the proportions of the various components will not be known and there is a discussion of whether they should be allowed for by integrating over a prior distribution. This is a conceptual paper, rather than a prescription for casework, and the scope for further work is outlined.

https://projects.nfstc.org/workshops/resources/literature/Genetic_Analysis_and_Interpretation/15_Taking%20Account%20of%20Peak%20Areas%20when%20Interpreting%20Mixed%20DNA.pdf

J.A. Lambert

Papers

A hierarchy of propositions: deciding which level to address in casework

A model for case assessment and interpretation.

The impact of the principles of evidence interpretation on the structure and content of statements.

More on the hierarchy of propositions: exploring the distinction between explanations and propositions.

Taking account of peak areas when interpreting mixed DNA profiles.