Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1°C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmo- spheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid- to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate mod- els and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. 'more bang for the buck', atmo- spheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Nino a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.

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Changes in precipitation with climate change

This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986-2005, unless otherwise stated.

Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility

A significant effect of anthropogenic activities has already been detected in observed trends in temperature and mean precipitation. But to date, no study has formally identified such a human fingerprint on extreme precipitation — an increase in which is one of the central theoretical expectations for a warming climate. Seung-Ki Min and colleagues compare observations and simulations of rainfall between 1951 and 1999 in North America, Europe and northern Asia. They find a statistically significant effect of increased greenhouse gases on observed increases in extreme precipitation events over much of the Northern Hemisphere land area. A significant effect of anthropogenic activities has already been detected in observed trends in temperature and mean precipitation. But so far, no study has formally identified such a human fingerprint on extreme precipitation — an increase in which is one of the central theoretical expectations for a warming climate. This study compares observations and simulations and detects a statistically significant effect of increased greenhouse gases on observed increases in extreme precipitation events over much of the Northern Hemisphere land area. Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment1,2. Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area3,4,5, is critical for reliable projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperature—and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation6,7,8,9,10,11—it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation3,5,7. Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model–model comparisons12,13,14,15. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming16.

/pdf/human-contribution-to-more-intense-precipitation-extremes-3zggbqp3eg.pdf

Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes

It has been widely debated whether recent extreme weather events are related to global warming. Now, from a review of the evidence so far, it is argued that certain events or an increase in their frequency can be linked with confidence to the human influence on climate.

/pdf/a-decade-of-weather-extremes-37qmrmwbjb.pdf

A decade of weather extremes

A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

/pdf/global-observed-changes-in-daily-climate-extremes-of-50pijshpdk.pdf

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

Rainfall mechanisms in the Central American Isthmus are controlled by complex physical interactions across spatial and temporal scales, which are reflected on the dynamics of atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the region. However, physical mechanisms and their relationships with thermodynamic distributions connected to overturning circulations remain elusive. Here, a set of six recurrent daily atmospheric patterns, or weather types (WT), is defined using a k‐means++ clustering algorithm on standardized fields of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and winds at 925, 850, and 200 hPa. The relationships between these weather types, their temporal characteristics, and anomalous distributions of moisture flux divergence, equivalent potential temperature (saturated and unsaturated), and observed rainfall are used to describe physical processes controlling the latter, for all seasons. Regional observed rainfall is analysed from a set of 174 automatic stations from all countries from Mexico to Panama. By modulating vertically integrated moisture fluxes, these weather types, and the different climate drivers linked to them, control the temporal and spatial rainfall characteristics in the region, especially over the Pacific side of the isthmus. During some stages of the regional rainy season, described by two weather types, thermal anomalies in convective quasi‐equilibrium characteristic of the upward branch of the Hadley cell force westerly flow over Central America, enhancing rainfall. While during other stages, the enhancement of the trades and the displacement of convection to the ITCZ area over the eastern tropical Pacific, characteristic of the midsummer drought, diminishes rainfall. This study sets the stage for a better understanding of the mechanistic relationship between these weather types and rainfall characteristics in general, like onset, demise, and duration of rainy seasons. Hence, these results can inform process‐based model diagnostics aiming at bias‐correcting climate predictions at multiple timescales.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/joc.7745

Atmospheric circulation types controlling rainfall in the Central American Isthmus

The State of Veracruz (Mexico) is highly vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to identify and analyze local climate extreme trends and explore potential relationships between climate indices and maize. The objectives of this research were (1) to describe recent trends of climate indices (1979–2018) and (2) to compare these climate indices with maize yields produced in Veracruz, Mexico, under rainfed conditions. The methodology calculated and analyzed the sector-specific climate indices (Rx5day, PRCPTOT, SPI6, R20mm, TXx, TNn, TXgt50p, and TXge35) in 18 observation sites using Climpact. Climate indices were calculated over the spring-summer agricultural cycle and correlated with rainfed maize yields. Results show increasing trends for Rx5day, TXx, TXgt50p, and TXge35 indices in 65%, 56%, 89%, and 67% of the analyzed sites, respectively, whereas decreasing trends in PRCPTOT and R20mm indices were detected in 59% and 47% of the sites. Significant correlations (p < 0.05) between climate indices and maize yield were found in eight municipalities, of which 62% were positive. In conclusion, extreme temperature and precipitation local events are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity, and depending on the site’s local climate, these might positively or negatively impact maize yields.

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J. L. Vazquez-Aguirre

Papers

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

Atmospheric circulation types controlling rainfall in the Central American Isthmus

Climate Indices and Their Impact on Maize Yield in Veracruz, Mexico