1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Numerous modifications to the Kain‐Fritsch convective parameterization have been implemented over the last decade. These modifications are described, and the motivating factors for the changes are discussed. Most changes were inspired by feedback from users of the scheme (primarily numerical modelers) and interpreters of the model output (mainly operational forecasters). The specific formulation of the modifications evolved from an effort to produce desired effects in numerical weather prediction while also rendering the scheme more faithful to observations and cloud-resolving modeling studies.

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The Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization: An Update

Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry Coordinating Lead Authors: Kenneth L. Denman (Canada), Guy Brasseur (USA, Germany) Lead Authors: Amnat Chidthaisong (Thailand), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter M. Cox (UK), Robert E. Dickinson (USA), Didier Hauglustaine (France), Christoph Heinze (Norway, Germany), Elisabeth Holland (USA), Daniel Jacob (USA, France), Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Srikanthan Ramachandran (India), Pedro Leite da Silva Dias (Brazil), Steven C. Wofsy (USA), Xiaoye Zhang (China) Contributing Authors: D. Archer (USA), V. Arora (Canada), J. Austin (USA), D. Baker (USA), J.A. Berry (USA), R. Betts (UK), G. Bonan (USA), P. Bousquet (France), J. Canadell (Australia), J. Christian (Canada), D.A. Clark (USA), M. Dameris (Germany), F. Dentener (EU), D. Easterling (USA), V. Eyring (Germany), J. Feichter (Germany), P. Friedlingstein (France, Belgium), I. Fung (USA), S. Fuzzi (Italy), S. Gong (Canada), N. Gruber (USA, Switzerland), A. Guenther (USA), K. Gurney (USA), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), J. House (UK), A. Jones (UK), C. Jones (UK), B. Karcher (Germany), M. Kawamiya (Japan), K. Lassey (New Zealand), C. Le Quere (UK, France, Canada), C. Leck (Sweden), J. Lee-Taylor (USA, UK), Y. Malhi (UK), K. Masarie (USA), G. McFiggans (UK), S. Menon (USA), J.B. Miller (USA), P. Peylin (France), A. Pitman (Australia), J. Quaas (Germany), M. Raupach (Australia), P. Rayner (France), G. Rehder (Germany), U. Riebesell (Germany), C. Rodenbeck (Germany), L. Rotstayn (Australia), N. Roulet (Canada), C. Sabine (USA), M.G. Schultz (Germany), M. Schulz (France, Germany), S.E. Schwartz (USA), W. Steffen (Australia), D. Stevenson (UK), Y. Tian (USA, China), K.E. Trenberth (USA), T. Van Noije (Netherlands), O. Wild (Japan, UK), T. Zhang (USA, China), L. Zhou (USA, China) Review Editors: Kansri Boonpragob (Thailand), Martin Heimann (Germany, Switzerland), Mario Molina (USA, Mexico) This chapter should be cited as: Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U. Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

「脆弱性(Vulnerability)」とは何か

Precipitation is a key link in the global water cycle and a proxy for changing climate; therefore, proper assessment of the urban envi- ronment's impact on precipitation (land use, aerosols, thermal properties) will be increasingly important in ongoing climate diagnostics and prediction, Glob- al Water and Energy Cycle (GWEC) analysis and modeling, weather forecast- ing, freshwater resource management, urban planning-design, and land- atmosphere-ocean interface processes. These facts are particularly critical if current projections for global urban growth are accurate. The goal of this paper is to provide a concise review of recent (1990-present) studies related to how the urban environment affects precipitation. In addition to providing a synopsis of current work, recent findings are placed in context with historical investigations such as Metropolitan Meteorological Experiment (METROMEX) studies. Both observational and modeling studies of urban- induced rainfall are discussed. Additionally, a discussion of the relative roles of urban dynamic and microphysical (e.g., aerosol) processes is presented. The paper closes with a set of recommendations for what observations and capa- bilities are needed in the future to advance our understanding of the processes.

/pdf/a-review-of-current-investigations-of-urban-induced-rainfall-2wrneu2hp1.pdf

A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite's precipitation radar (PR) were employed to identify warm-season rainfall (1998–2000) patterns around Atlanta, Georgia; Montgomery, Alabama; Nashville, Tennessee; and San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas, Texas. Results reveal an average increase of about 28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30–60 km downwind of the metropolis, with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48%–116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with the Metropolitan Meteorological Experiment (METROMEX) studies of St. Louis, Missouri, almost two decades ago and with more recent stud...

/pdf/rainfall-modification-by-major-urban-areas-observations-from-1rzgu1oys6.pdf

Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas: Observations from Spaceborne Rain Radar on the TRMM Satellite

We assess the urbanization impacts on the heavy rainfall climatology during the Indian summer monsoon. While a number of studies have identified the impact of urbanization on local precipitation, a large-scale assessment has been lacking. This relation between urbanization and Indian monsoon rainfall changes is investigated by analyzing in situ and satellite-based precipitation and population datasets. Using a long-term daily rainfall dataset and high-resolution gridded analysis of human population, this study showed a significantly increasing trend in the frequency of heavy rainfall climatology over urban regions of India during the monsoon season. Urban regions experience less occurrences of light rainfall and significantly higher occurrences of intense precipitation compared to nonurban regions. Very heavy and extreme rainfall events showed increased trends over both urban and rural areas, but the trends over urban areas were larger and statistically more significant. Our analysis suggests that there is adequate statistical basis to conclude that the observed increasing trend in the frequency of heavy rainfall events over Indian monsoon region is more likely to be over regions where the pace of urbanization is faster. Moreover, rainfall measurements from satellites also indicate that urban areas are more (less) likely to experience heavier (lighter) precipitation rates compared to those in nonurban areas. While the mechanisms causing this enhancement in rainfall remain to be studied, the results provide the evidence that the increase in the heavy rainfall climatology over the Indian monsoon region is a signature of urban-induced rainfall anomaly. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

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Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India.

http://www.igbp.net/download/18.5831d9ad13275d51c098000264/1376382968024/Seto.Shepherd.COES09.pdf

Global urban land-use trends and climate impacts

There is increasing evidence that large coastal cities, like Houston, Texas, can influence weather through complex urban land use- weather-climate feedbacks. Recent work in the literature establishes the ex- istence of enhanced lightning activity over and downwind of Houston. Since lightning is a signature of convection in the atmosphere, it would seem rea- sonable that urbanized Houston would also impact the distribution of rainfall. This paper presents results using data from the world's first satellite-based precipitation radar (PR) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and ground-based rain gauges to quantify rainfall anomalies that we hypothesize to be linked to extensive urbanization in the Houston area. It is one of the first rigorous efforts to quantify an urban-induced rainfall anomaly near a major U.S. coastal city and one of the first applications of space-borne radar data to the problem. Quantitative results reveal the presence of annual and warm season rainfall anomalies over and downwind of Houston. Several hypotheses have surfaced to explain how the sea breeze, coastline curvature,

/pdf/detection-of-urban-induced-rainfall-anomalies-in-a-major-4fkyqyyh13.pdf

J. Marshall Shepherd

Papers

A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future

Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas: Observations from Spaceborne Rain Radar on the TRMM Satellite

Urbanization signature in the observed heavy rainfall climatology over India.

Global urban land-use trends and climate impacts

Detection of Urban-Induced Rainfall Anomalies in a Major Coastal City