/pdf/preventing-crime-what-works-what-doesn-t-what-s-promising-1jp2dkc4ik.pdf

Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn't, What's Promising. Research in Brief. National Institute of Justice.

The age-crime curve, increasing to a peak in the teenage years and then decreasing, is well-known. Less well-known is that it seems to reflect variations in prevalence (the proportion of persons who are offenders) rather than incidence (the rate of offending by offenders). Age-crime curves for individuals do not resemble the aggregate curve since incidence does not change consistently between the onset and the termination of criminal careers. This has major implications for criminal justice policy since the greatest residual length of criminal careers, and hence the greatest potential incapacitative effect, may be between ages thirty and forty, not at the peak age. Different types of offenses peak at different ages; this probably reflects crime switching rather than the replacement of one group of offenders by another. There is little specialization in offending, but specialization does increase with age. Age effects need to be separated from period and cohort effects. The age-crime curve probably reflect...

Age and Crime

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/pdf/the-growth-of-incarceration-in-the-united-states-exploring-212x90j52g.pdf

The growth of incarceration in the United States: exploring causes and consequences

The impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees. We outline the problems with this approach, attempt to reanalyze the widely divergent lambdas derived in past research, and make adjustments necessary to use lambdas for estimating the incapacitation impact. The result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner. We argue that regression analysis can provide a better estimate of the impact of prison population growth. Applying the Granger test to pooled state data over 19 years, we found that prison population growth leads to lower crime rates but that crime rate changes have little or no short-term impact on prison population growth. Next we regressed crime rates on prison population and conclude that, on average, at least 17 index crimes are averted per additional prisoner. The impact is limited mainly to property crime.

Prison population growth and crime reduction

pocket expenses incurred by victims. This approach significantly underestimates the cost of crime to victims by ignoring the pain, suffering, and fear caused by crime. Other studies have attempted to infer the cost of crime by estimating property value differences in high versus low crime areas. However, this approach does not permit one to determine the cost of individual crimes. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the cost of individual crimes by examining the pain, suffering, and fear endured by crime victims. Actual victim injury rates are combined with jury awards in personal injury accident cases to estimate monetary values for pain, suffering, and fear. I combine crime-related death rates with estimates of the value of life to arrive at monetary values for the risk of death. My estimate of the aggregate annual cost of crime to victims of FBI index crimes is $92.6 billion. These estimates are shown to have several direct policy applications.

http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/3053629.pdf

Pain, Suffering, and Jury Awards: A Study of the Cost of Crime to Victims

A number of estimates of incapacitative effects from incarceration of convicted offenders are available. While these estimates vary in absolute magnitude, the studies consistently find that crime reduction achieved by existing collective incapacitation policies is modest, at under 20 percent of crimes prevented. Further crime reduction from alternative policies that would impose fairly stringent mandatory five-year prison terms after convictions for serious offenses is similarly modest. Implementing these alternative policies, however, would result in dramatic increases in already record-size prison populations. In view of the limited crime reduction and enormous increases in prison population associated with collective incapacitation policies, recent research has explored the potential benefits of more selective or targeted incapacitation. If a small number of high-rate offenders commit a disproportionately large amount of crime, targeting limited prison resources on these offenders should achieve increa...

Jacqueline Cohen

Papers

Incapacitation As a Strategy for Crime Control: Possibilities and Pitfalls