Showing papers by "Jacques Ferlay published in 2006"

Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident.

Abstract: The Chernobyl accident, which occurred April 26, 1986, resulted in a large release of radionuclides, which were deposited over a very wide area, particularly in Europe. Although an increased risk of thyroid cancer in exposed children has been clearly demonstrated in the most contaminated regions, the impact of the accident on the risk of other cancers as well as elsewhere in Europe is less clear. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the human cancer burden in Europe as a whole from radioactive fallout from the accident. Average country- and region-specific whole-body and thyroid doses from Chernobyl were estimated using new dosimetric models and radiological data. Numbers of cancer cases and deaths possibly attributable to radiation from Chernobyl were estimated, applying state-of-the-art risk models derived from studies of other irradiated populations. Simultaneously, trends in cancer incidence and mortality were examined over time and by dose level. The risk projections suggest that by now Chernobyl may have caused about 1,000 cases of thyroid cancer and 4,000 cases of other cancers in Europe, representing about 0.01% of all incident cancers since the accident. Models predict that by 2065 about 16,000 (95% UI 3,400-72,000) cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 (95% UI 11,000-59,000) cases of other cancers may be expected due to radiation from the accident, whereas several hundred million cancer cases are expected from other causes. Although these estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty, they provide an indication of the order of magnitude of the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident. It is unlikely that the cancer burden from the largest radiological accident to date could be detected by monitoring national cancer statistics. Indeed, results of analyses of time trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Europe do not, at present, indicate any increase in cancer rates -- other than of thyroid cancer in the most contaminated regions -- that can be clearly attributed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident.

Interpreting the international trends in testicular seminoma and nonseminoma incidence.

Abstract: There are considerable geographic, ethnic and temporal variations in the global incidence of testicular cancer. The disease mainly affects Western populations, with average rates in developed areas of the world six times higher than those in developing areas. About 500,000 new cases were diagnosed worldwide in 2002, with the vast majority being germ cell tumors and occurring in young adult males. Traditionally, these tumors are further classified into seminoma and nonseminoma. In this Review, trends in the incidence of germ cell tumors are examined using high-quality cancer-registry data from 41 populations within 14 countries worldwide. To assess whether trends of seminoma and nonseminoma incidence are similar, data were analyzed by birth cohort. These analyses should reveal similar trends if the 10-year difference in the clinical manifestation of cancer between subtypes is caused by differences in the speed of progression from the same early rate-limiting step to the onset of symptomatic disease. In each country, incidence has uniformly increased in successive generations born from around 1920 until very recently. Cohort-specific trends in seminoma incidence are similar to cohort-specific trends in nonseminoma incidence, lending support to the conclusion that the subtypes are epidemiologically and etiologically comparable. The findings presented are related to current theories and evidence regarding the determinants of testicular germ cell cancer.

Cancer incidence estimates at the national and district levels in Colombia

Abstract: Objectives. To estimate national and district cancer incidence for 18 major cancer sites in Colombia. Materials and Methods. National and district incidence was estimated by applying a set of age, sex and site-specific incidence/mortality ratios, obtained from a population-based cancer registry, to national and regional mortality. The work was done in Bogota (Colombia) and Lyon (France) between May 2003 and August 2004. Results. The annual total number of cases expected (all cancers but skin) was 17 819 in men and 18 772 in women. Among males the most frequent cancers were those of the prostate (45.8 per 100 000), stomach (36.0), and lung (20.0). In females the most frequent were those of the cervix uteri (36.8 per 100 000), breast (30.0), and stomach (20.7). Districts with the lowest death certification coverage yielded the highest incidence rates. Conclusions. In the absence of national population-based cancer registry data, estimates of incidence provide valuable information at national and regional levels. As mortality data are an important source for the estimation, the quality of death certification should be considered as a possible cause of bias.