Jagadish Shukla

Bio: Jagadish Shukla is an academic researcher from George Mason University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Sea surface temperature & Atmospheric circulation. The author has an hindex of 69, co-authored 151 publications receiving 20014 citations. Previous affiliations of Jagadish Shukla include Goddard Space Flight Center & Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

Abstract: The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program sought to determine the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) program seeks to explore predictability of the global climate system through investigation of the major planetary heat sources and sinks, and interactions between them. The Asian-Australian monsoon system, which undergoes aperiodic and high amplitude variations on intraseasonal, annual, biennial and interannual timescales is a major focus of GOALS. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the monsoon have been made with moderate success for over 100 years. More recent modeling efforts have not been successful. Even simulation of the mean structure of the Asian monsoon has proven elusive and the observed ENSO-monsoon relationships has been difficult to replicate. Divergence in simulation skill occurs between integrations by different models or between members of ensembles of the same model. This degree of spread is surprising given the relative success of empirical forecast techniques. Two possible explanations are presented: difficulty in modeling the monsoon regions and nonlinear error growth due to regional hydrodynamical instabilities. It is argued that the reconciliation of these explanations is imperative for prediction of the monsoon to be improved. To this end, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented. Prospects of improving prediction and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.

Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the earth's climate

Abstract: Land-surface evapotranspiration is shown to strongly influence global fields of rainfall, temperature and motion by calculations using a numerical model of the atmosphere, confirming the general belief in the importance of evapotranspiration-producing surface vegetation for the earth's climate. The current version of the Goddard Laboratory atmospheric general circulation model is used in the present experiment, in which conservation equations for mass, momentum, moisture and energy are expressed in finite-difference form for a spherical grid to calculate (1) surface pressure field evolution, and (2) the wind, temperature, and water vapor fields at nine levels between the surface and a 20 km height.

Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change

Abstract: A coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere and biosphere has been used to assess the effects of Amazon deforestation on the regional and global climate. When the tropical forests in the model were replaced by degraded grass (pasture), there was a significant increase in surface temperature and a decrease in evapotranspiration and precipitation over Amazonia. In the simulation, the length of the dry season also increased; such an increase could make reestablishment of the tropical forests after massive deforestation particularly difficult.

Amazonian Deforestation and Regional Climate Change

Abstract: Large-scale conversion of tropical forests into pastures or annual crops could lead to changes in the climate. We have used a coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere and biosphere (Center for Ocean-Land- Atmosphere GCM) to assess the effects of Amazonian deforestation on the regional and global climate. We found that when the Amazonian tropical forests were replaced by degraded grass (pasture) in the model, there was a significant increase in the mean surface temperature (about 2.5°C) and a decrease in the annual evapo-transpiration (30% reduction), precipitation (25% reduction), and runoff (20% reduction) in the region. The differences between the two simulations were greatest during the dry season. The deforested case was associated with larger diurnal fluctuations of surface temperature and vapor pressure deficit; such effects have been observed in existing deforested arms in Amazonia. The calculated reduction in precipitation was larger than the calculated decrease in evapotranspirat...

Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America.

Abstract: Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. The EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows. Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months. Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase ...

The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project

Abstract: The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957–96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system. The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided b...

Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems

Abstract: Human alteration of Earth is substantial and growing. Between one-third and one-half of the land surface has been transformed by human action; the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has increased by nearly 30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution; more atmospheric nitrogen is fixed by humanity than by all natural terrestrial sources combined; more than half of all accessible surface fresh water is put to use by humanity; and about one-quarter of the bird species on Earth have been driven to extinction. By these and other standards, it is clear that we live on a human-dominated planet.

The ERA‐40 re‐analysis

Abstract: ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized. A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the ‘second-generation’ ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright.

Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control

Abstract: Biotic invaders are species that establish a new range in which they proliferate, spread, and persist to the detriment of the environment. They are the most important ecological outcomes from the unprecedented alterations in the distribution of the earth's biota brought about largely through human transport and commerce. In a world without borders, few if any areas remain sheltered from these im- migrations. The fate of immigrants is decidedly mixed. Few survive the hazards of chronic and stochastic forces, and only a small fraction become naturalized. In turn, some naturalized species do become invasive. There are several potential reasons why some immigrant species prosper: some escape from the constraints of their native predators or parasites; others are aided by human-caused disturbance that disrupts native communities. Ironically, many biotic invasions are apparently facilitated by cultivation and husbandry, unintentional actions that foster immigrant populations until they are self-perpetuating and uncontrollable. Whatever the cause, biotic invaders can in many cases inflict enormous environmental damage: (1) Animal invaders can cause extinctions of vulnerable native species through predation, grazing, competition, and habitat alteration. (2) Plant invaders can completely alter the fire regime, nutrient cycling, hydrology, and energy budgets in a native ecosystem and can greatly diminish the abundance or survival of native species. (3) In agriculture, the principal pests of temperate crops are nonindigenous, and the combined expenses of pest control and crop losses constitute an onerous "tax" on food, fiber, and forage production. (4) The global cost of virulent plant and animal diseases caused by parasites transported to new ranges and presented with susceptible new hosts is currently incalculable. Identifying future invaders and taking effective steps to prevent their dispersal and establishment con- stitutes an enormous challenge to both conservation and international commerce. Detection and management when exclusion fails have proved daunting for varied reasons: (1) Efforts to identify general attributes of future invaders have often been inconclusive. (2) Predicting susceptible locales for future invasions seems even more problematic, given the enormous differences in the rates of arrival among potential invaders. (3) Eradication of an established invader is rare, and control efforts vary enormously in their efficacy. Successful control, however, depends more on commitment and continuing diligence than on the efficacy of specific tools themselves. (4) Control of biotic invasions is most effective when it employs a long-term, ecosystem- wide strategy rather than a tactical approach focused on battling individual invaders. (5) Prevention of invasions is much less costly than post-entry control. Revamping national and international quarantine laws by adopting a "guilty until proven innocent" approach would be a productive first step. Failure to address the issue of biotic invasions could effectively result in severe global consequences, including wholesale loss of agricultural, forestry, and fishery resources in some regions, disruption of the ecological processes that supply natural services on which human enterprise depends, and the creation of homogeneous, impoverished ecosystems composed of cosmopolitan species. Given their current scale, biotic invasions have taken their place alongside human-driven atmospheric and oceanic alterations as major agents of global change. Left unchecked, they will influence these other forces in profound but still unpredictable ways.