James Bushnell

Bio: James Bushnell is an academic researcher from University of California, Davis. The author has contributed to research in topics: Electricity market & Market power. The author has an hindex of 41, co-authored 116 publications receiving 7062 citations. Previous affiliations of James Bushnell include National Bureau of Economic Research & Energy Institute.

Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market

Abstract: We present a method for decomposing wholesale electricity payments into production costs, inframarginal competitive rents, and payments resulting from the exercise of market power. The method also parses actual variable costs into the minimum variable costs necessary to meet demand and increased production costs caused by market power and other market inefficiencies. Using data from June 1998 to October 2000 in California, we find significant departures from competitive pricing, particularly during the high-demand summer months. Electricity expenditures in the state's restructured wholesale market rose from $2.04 billion in summer 1999 to $8.98 billion in summer 2000. We find that 21% of this increase was due to increased production costs, 20% was due to increased competitive rents, and the remaining 59% was attributable to increased market power.

An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry

Abstract: Using historical cost data, we simulate the California electricity market after deregulation as a static Cournot market with a competitive fringe. Our model indicates that, under the pre-deregulation structure of generation ownership, there is potential for significant market power in high demand hours, particularly in the fall and early winter months when hydroelectric output is at its lowest level relative to demand. The results also show that two of the most important factors in determining the extent and severity of market power are the level of available hydroelectric production and the elasticity of demand.

The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in a Deregulated Electricity Industry

Abstract: In an unregulated electricity generation market, the capacity of transmission lines will determine the degree to which generators in different locations compete with one another. We show, however, that there may be no relationship between the effect of a transmission line in spurring competition and the actual electricity that flows on the line in equilibrium. We also demonstrate that limited transmission capacity can give a firm the incentive to restrict its output in order to congest transmission into its area of dominance. As a result, relatively small investments in transmission may yield surprisingly large payoffs in terms of increased competition. We demonstrate these effects in the context of the deregulated California electricity market.

Market Power in Electricity Markets: Beyond Concentration Measures

Abstract: The wave of electricity market restructuring both within the United States and abroad has brought the issue of horizontal market power to the forefront of energy policy. Traditionally, estimation and prediction of market power has relied heavily on concentration measures . In this paper, we discuss the weaknesses of concentration measures as a viable measure of market power in the electricity industry, and we propose an alternative method based on market simulations that take advantage of existing plant level data. We discuss results from previous studies the authors have performed , and present new results that allow for the detection of threshold demand levels where market power is likely to be a problem. In addition, we analyze the impact of that recent divestitures in the California electricity market will have on estimated market power. We close with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.

Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition an Analysis of Restructured U.S. Electricity Markets

Abstract: This paper examines the relative importance of horizontal market structure, auction design, and vertical arrangements in explaining electricity prices. We define vertical arrangements as either vertical integration or long term contracts whereby retail prices are determined prior to wholesale prices. This is generally the case in electricity markets. These ex ante retail price commitments mean that a producer has effectively entered into a forward contract when it takes on retail customers. The integrated firm has less incentive to raise wholesale prices when its sale price is constrained. For three restructured wholesale electricity markets, we simulate two sets of prices that define the bounds on static oligopoly equilibria. Our findings suggest that vertical arrangements dramatically affect estimated market outcomes. Simulated prices that assume Cournot behavior but ignore this vertical scope vastly exceed observed prices. After accounting for the arrangements, performance is similar to Cournot in each market. Our results indicate that auction design has done little to limit strategic behavior and that horizontal market structure accurately predicts market performance only when vertical structure is also taken into account.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Abstract: Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

What Determines Productivity

Abstract: Economists have shown that large and persistent differences in productivity levels across businesses are ubiquitous. This finding has shaped research agendas in a number of fields, including (but not limited to) macroeconomics, industrial organization, labor, and trade. This paper surveys and evaluates recent empirical work addressing the question of why businesses differ in their measured productivity levels. The causes are manifold, and differ depending on the particular setting. They include elements sourced in production practices -- and therefore over which producers have some direct control, at least in theory -- as well as from producers' external operating environments. After evaluating the current state of knowledge, I lay out what I see are the major questions that research in the area should address going forward. (JEL D24, G31, L11, M10, O30, O47)

Demand response and smart grids—A survey

Abstract: The smart grid is conceived of as an electric grid that can deliver electricity in a controlled, smart way from points of generation to active consumers. Demand response (DR), by promoting the interaction and responsiveness of the customers, may offer a broad range of potential benefits on system operation and expansion and on market efficiency. Moreover, by improving the reliability of the power system and, in the long term, lowering peak demand, DR reduces overall plant and capital cost investments and postpones the need for network upgrades. In this paper a survey of DR potentials and benefits in smart grids is presented. Innovative enabling technologies and systems, such as smart meters, energy controllers, communication systems, decisive to facilitate the coordination of efficiency and DR in a smart grid, are described and discussed with reference to real industrial case studies and research projects.

Review of energy system flexibility measures to enable high levels of variable renewable electricity

Abstract: The paper reviews different approaches, technologies, and strategies to manage large-scale schemes of variable renewable electricity such as solar and wind power. We consider both supply and demand side measures. In addition to presenting energy system flexibility measures, their importance to renewable electricity is discussed. The flexibility measures available range from traditional ones such as grid extension or pumped hydro storage to more advanced strategies such as demand side management and demand side linked approaches, e.g. the use of electric vehicles for storing excess electricity, but also providing grid support services. Advanced batteries may offer new solutions in the future, though the high costs associated with batteries may restrict their use to smaller scale applications. Different “P2Y”-type of strategies, where P stands for surplus renewable power and Y for the energy form or energy service to which this excess in converted to, e.g. thermal energy, hydrogen, gas or mobility are receiving much attention as potential flexibility solutions, making use of the energy system as a whole. To “functionalize” or to assess the value of the various energy system flexibility measures, these need often be put into an electricity/energy market or utility service context. Summarizing, the outlook for managing large amounts of RE power in terms of options available seems to be promising.