The precipitous fall in oil prices, continued geopolitical instability and the ongoing global climate negotiations are witness to the dynamic nature of energy markets. In a time of so much uncertainty, understanding the implications of the shifting energy landscape for economic and environmental goals and for energy security is vital. The World Energy Outlook 2015 (WEO-2015) will present updated projections for the evolution of the global energy system to 2040, based on the latest data and market developments, as well as detailed insights on the prospects for fossil fuels, renewables, the power sector and energy efficiency and analysis on trends in CO2 emissions and fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies.
In addition, the WEO-2015 covers in-depth analysis on several topical issues:
 
A lower oil price future? The decline in oil prices and changed market conditions has prompted a broad debate over how and when the oil market will re-balance. This analysis will examine the implications for markets, policies, investment, the fuel mix and emissions if oil prices stay lower for longer.
India’s energy outlook: How India’s energy sector develops over the coming decades will have profound implications both for the country’s own prospects and for the global energy system as a whole. With new impetus behind efforts to upgrade the country’s energy supply, this comprehensive, in-depth analysis will assess the multiple challenges and opportunities facing India as it develops the resources and infrastructure to meet rapidly rising energy demand.
Renewables and energy efficiency: In the run-up to COP21, the Outlook will provide a report on the competitive position of fast-growing renewable energy technologies in different markets, how this evolves and what implications this might have for policy; the analysis also tracks for the first time the coverage of energy use by efficiency policies around the world and the ways in which product design, recycling and reuse (“material efficiency”) can contribute to energy savings.
Unconventional gas: In addition to an update on the opportunities and challenges that face the development of unconventional gas globally, analysis will focus on the prospects for unconventional gas in China and how this might affect China’s energy outlook as well as regional and global balances.

World Energy Outlook 2015

A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century’s first global crisis A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis

Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First

A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and signicant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis.

/pdf/stories-of-the-twentieth-century-for-the-twenty-first-3f0ff4lmhq.pdf

The financial crisis of 2007--2008 is rooted in a number of factors, some common to previous financial crises, others new. Analysis of post-crisis macroeconomic and financial sector performance for 58 advanced countries and emerging markets shows a differential impact of old and new factors. Factors common to other crises, like asset price bubbles and current account deficits, help to explain cross-country differences in the severity of real economic impacts. New factors, such as increased financial integration and dependence on wholesale funding, help to account for the amplification and global spread of the financial crisis. Our findings point to vulnerabilities to be monitored and areas of needed national and international reforms to reduce risk of future crises and cross-border spillovers. They also reinforce a (sad) state of knowledge: much of how crises start and spread remains unknown.

— Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Deniz Igan and Luc Laeven

Cross‐Country Experiences and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis

http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/5027952/RWP11-024_Frankel.pdf?sequence=1

Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis

We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some -weaker-evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/wp09280.pdf?abstractid=1531513&mirid=1&type=2

The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact

https://www.bcb.gov.br/Pec/Depep/Eventos/2010_Agosto_dia11_Conferencia/Arquivos/2_The_Global_Financial_Crisis_Explaining_Cross_Country_Differences.pdf

Using a dataset which breaks down FDI flows into primary, secondary and tertiary sector investments and a GMM dynamic approach to address concerns about endogeneity, the paper analyzes various macroeconomic, developmental, and institutional/qualitative determinants of FDI in a sample of emerging market and developed economies. While FDI flows into the primary sector show little dependence on any of these variables, secondary and tertiary sector investments are affected in different ways by countries’ income levels and exchange rate valuation, as well as development indicators such as financial depth and school enrollment, and institutional factors such as judicial independence and labor market flexibility. Finally, we find that the effect of these factors often differs between advanced and emerging economies.

/pdf/determinants-of-foreign-direct-investment-a-sectoral-and-520u1lsq6u.pdf

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Sectoral and Institutional Approach

Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly given high global commodity price inflation in recent years, a policy focus on measures of core inflation that exclude food prices can misspecify inflation, leading to higher inflationary expectations, a downward bias to forecasts of future inflation and lags in policy responses. In constructing measures of core inflation, policymakers should therefore not assume that excluding food price inflation will provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends than headline inflation.

https://www.imf.org/-/media/Websites/IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/_wp1171.ashx

Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation

Rising fuel subsidies have contributed to fiscal pressures in India. A key policy concern regarding subsidy reform is the adverse welfare impact on households, in particular poor households. This paper evaluates the fiscal and welfare implications of fuel subsidy reform in India. Fuel subsidies are found to be badly targeted, with the richest ten percent of households receiving seven times more in benefits than the poorest ten percent. Although subsidy reform would generate substantial fiscal savings, the associated increases in fuel and other prices would lower household real incomes of all income groups. Better targeting of fuel subsidies would fully protect lower income households while still generating substantial net fiscal savings. Lessons from subsidy reforms in other countries are identified and discussed.

https://www.imf.org/-/media/Websites/IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/_wp13128.ashx

James P Walsh

Papers

The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact

The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Sectoral and Institutional Approach

Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation

The Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Reforming Fuel Subsidies in India