https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00457602/document

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.

/pdf/impacts-of-climate-change-on-the-future-of-biodiversity-3rngjb4k3z.pdf

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

Summary
1. Species are shifting their ranges at an unprecedented rate through human transportation and environmental change. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are frequently applied for predicting potential future distributions of range-shifting species, despite these models’ assumptions that species are at equilibrium with the environments used to train (fit) the models, and that the training data are representative of conditions to which the models are predicted. Here we explore modelling approaches that aim to minimize extrapolation errors and assess predictions against prior biological knowledge. Our aim was to promote methods appropriate to range-shifting species.

2. We use an invasive species, the cane toad in Australia, as an example, predicting potential distributions under both current and climate change scenarios. We use four SDM methods, and trial weighting schemes and choice of background samples appropriate for species in a state of spread. We also test two methods for including information from a mechanistic model. Throughout, we explore graphical techniques for understanding model behaviour and reliability, including the extent of extrapolation.

3. Predictions varied with modelling method and data treatment, particularly with regard to the use and treatment of absence data. Models that performed similarly under current climatic conditions deviated widely when transferred to a novel climatic scenario.

4. The results highlight problems with using SDMs for extrapolation, and demonstrate the need for methods and tools to understand models and predictions. We have made progress in this direction and have implemented exploratory techniques as new options in the free modelling software, MaxEnt. Our results also show that deliberately controlling the fit of models and integrating information from mechanistic models can enhance the reliability of correlative predictions of species in non-equilibrium and novel settings.

5.Implications. The biodiversity of many regions in the world is experiencing novel threats created by species invasions and climate change. Predictions of future species distributions are required for management, but there are acknowledged problems with many current methods, and relatively few advances in techniques for understanding or overcoming these. The methods presented in this manuscript and made accessible in MaxEnt provide a forward step.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x

The art of modelling range-shifting species

http://sylvain-delzon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Lindner-et-al-2010-FEM.pdf

Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/330/6010/1496.full.pdf

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

/pdf/predicting-global-change-impacts-on-plant-species-48eu4ogr2p.pdf

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY,United Kingdom, email james.paterson@ouce.ox.ac.uk†Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, C/Jos´e Gutierrez Abascal 2,Madrid 28006, Spain‡Department of Planning, Oxford Brookes University, Headington, Oxford OX3 0BP, United Kingdom

Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Threat to Biodiversity

In this paper we review the current impacts of different energy producers (and energy conservation) on biodiversity and investigate the potential for achieving positive biodiversity effects along with mitigation and adaptation objectives. Very few energy producers achieve all three aims – although it may be possible with careful choice of location and management. In some instances, energy conservation can provide mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity benefits. There is still a gap in knowledge regarding the effects of newer energy technologies on biodiversity. There is an additional concern that many supposedly 'green' renewable energy projects may actually harm biodiversity to such a degree that their overall human benefits are negated. The increasing understanding that ecosystem services are vital for human well-being though means that attempting positive mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the energy sector should be an imperative goal for international policy. Whilst research into synergies between mitigation and adaptation is established, there has been very little that has examined the impacts on biodiversity as well. Further work is required to identify and provide evidence of the best ways of optimising mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity in the energy sector.

Energy mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity: Synergies and antagonisms

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1307/6/31/312002/pdf

Climate change adaptation and mitigation: Synergisms, antagonisms and trade-offs for biodiversity

Flow cytometry is an established method for the detection and enumeration of viruses. However, the technique is unable to target specific viral species. Here, we present OligoFlow, a novel method for the rapid detection and enumeration of viruses by incorporating flow cytometry with species specific oligonucleotide hybridization. Using Ostried herpesvirus and dengue virus as model organisms, we demonstrate high-level detection and specificity. Our results represent a significant advancement in viral flow cytometry, opening the possibilities for the rapid identification of viruses in time critical settings.

James S. Paterson

Papers

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Threat to Biodiversity

Energy mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity: Synergies and antagonisms

Climate change adaptation and mitigation: Synergisms, antagonisms and trade-offs for biodiversity

OligoFlow: rapid and sensitive virus quantification using flow cytometry and oligonucleotide hybridization