James Taylor

Bio: James Taylor is an academic researcher from Newcastle University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Laser & Fiber laser. The author has an hindex of 95, co-authored 1161 publications receiving 39945 citations. Previous affiliations of James Taylor include Institut national de la recherche agronomique & European Spallation Source.

A Comparison of Aggregation Methods for Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed forecasting models at the forefront of health policy making. Predictions of mortality and hospitalization help governments meet planning and resource allocation challenges. In this paper, we consider the weekly forecasting of the cumulative mortality due to COVID-19 at the national and state level in the U.S. Optimal decision-making requires a forecast of a probability distribution, rather than just a single point forecast. Interval forecasts are also important, as they can support decision making and provide situational awareness. We consider the case where probabilistic forecasts have been provided by multiple forecasting teams, and we aggregate the forecasts to extract the wisdom of the crowd. With only limited information available regarding the historical accuracy of the forecasting teams, we consider aggregation (i.e. combining) methods that do not rely on a record of past accuracy. In this empirical paper, we evaluate the accuracy of aggregation methods that have been previously proposed for interval forecasts and predictions of probability distributions. These include the use of the simple average, the median, and trimming methods, which enable robust estimation and allow the aggregate forecast to reduce the impact of a tendency for the forecasting teams to be under- or overconfident. We use data that has been made publicly available from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. While the simple average performed well for the high mortality series, we obtained greater accuracy using the median and certain trimming methods for the low and medium mortality series. It will be interesting to see if this remains the case as the pandemic evolves.

350 fs Pulse Generation from an Erbium Fibre Ring Laser Mode Locked Using Nonlinear Polarization Rotation

Abstract: Using intensity-dependent polarization rotation as a passive mode-locking mechanism, pulses as short as 350 fs have been generated in an erbium fibre loop laser. Even in the cavities optimized for minimum-pulse-width generation, the response of the soliton structures to the periodic amplification gave rise to the now characteristic spectral side bands.

Sum frequency generation of synchronously-seeded, high-power Yb and Er fiber amplifiers in periodically poled KTP

Abstract: Synchronous temporal seeding of single-mode, high-peak, and average-power Yb and Er fiber amplifiers allowed efficient, single-pass, sum frequency generation in periodically poled KTP. 3.5 W average power in the red, at 630 nm, is generated with Gaussian spatial beam quality.

Wire-guided surgical stapler for closure of a puncture site in a blood vessel

Abstract: A surgical stapler comprises shaft 6 with a hollow channel running throughout its length. A surgical staple is housed in the distal end of said channel and a push rod system runs along the shaft to advance and deploy the staple. The stapler is brought into position at puncture site 14 over guide wire 1 which has previously been inserted into blood vessel 5 through puncture 14. Correct placement of the stapler is confirmed by advancing tube 2 over guidewire 1 into blood vessel 5 through puncture 14 when backflow of blood will be observed. Following withdrawal of tube 2, the staple is deployed into artery walls 9 and the stapler removed over guidewire 1 which itself is removed when haemostasis is observed.

I and i

Abstract: There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one. I remember first hearing about it at school. It seemed an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality. Usually familiarity dulls this sense of the bizarre, but in the case of i it was the reverse: over the years the sense of its surreal nature intensified. It seemed that it was impossible to write mathematics that described the real world in …

Using Multivariate Statistics

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The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Abstract: THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

Machine learning

Abstract: Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Linear Matrix Inequalities in System and Control Theory

Abstract: Preface 1. Introduction Overview A Brief History of LMIs in Control Theory Notes on the Style of the Book Origin of the Book 2. Some Standard Problems Involving LMIs. Linear Matrix Inequalities Some Standard Problems Ellipsoid Algorithm Interior-Point Methods Strict and Nonstrict LMIs Miscellaneous Results on Matrix Inequalities Some LMI Problems with Analytic Solutions 3. Some Matrix Problems. Minimizing Condition Number by Scaling Minimizing Condition Number of a Positive-Definite Matrix Minimizing Norm by Scaling Rescaling a Matrix Positive-Definite Matrix Completion Problems Quadratic Approximation of a Polytopic Norm Ellipsoidal Approximation 4. Linear Differential Inclusions. Differential Inclusions Some Specific LDIs Nonlinear System Analysis via LDIs 5. Analysis of LDIs: State Properties. Quadratic Stability Invariant Ellipsoids 6. Analysis of LDIs: Input/Output Properties. Input-to-State Properties State-to-Output Properties Input-to-Output Properties 7. State-Feedback Synthesis for LDIs. Static State-Feedback Controllers State Properties Input-to-State Properties State-to-Output Properties Input-to-Output Properties Observer-Based Controllers for Nonlinear Systems 8. Lure and Multiplier Methods. Analysis of Lure Systems Integral Quadratic Constraints Multipliers for Systems with Unknown Parameters 9. Systems with Multiplicative Noise. Analysis of Systems with Multiplicative Noise State-Feedback Synthesis 10. Miscellaneous Problems. Optimization over an Affine Family of Linear Systems Analysis of Systems with LTI Perturbations Positive Orthant Stabilizability Linear Systems with Delays Interpolation Problems The Inverse Problem of Optimal Control System Realization Problems Multi-Criterion LQG Nonconvex Multi-Criterion Quadratic Problems Notation List of Acronyms Bibliography Index.