Author
Jan Christian Schlüter
Other affiliations: Dresden University of Technology, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, University of Göttingen
Bio: Jan Christian Schlüter is an academic researcher from Max Planck Society. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Intensive care. The author has an hindex of 6, co-authored 30 publications receiving 92 citations. Previous affiliations of Jan Christian Schlüter include Dresden University of Technology & Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg.
Papers
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TL;DR: In this article, a real-life, fully flexible and true door-to-door DRT experiment was conducted in the Oberharz region of Germany, where over a 6-month period around 38,000 trips took place in the region and the analysis of these trips showed that an unrestricted DRT service between three main centres (Goslar, Clausthal-Zellerfeld and Osterode) results in main travel axes between these cities while the more remote areas forfeit mobility to these centres of public service provision.
35 citations
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TL;DR: The main goal is to establish an implicit time-discrete SIR (susceptible people–infectious people–recovered people) model and to prove an upper error bound for the time- Discrete implicit numerical scheme.
Abstract: Since Kermack and McKendrick have introduced their famous epidemiological SIR model in 1927, mathematical epidemiology has grown as an interdisciplinary research discipline including knowledge from biology, computer science, or mathematics. Due to current threatening epidemics such as COVID-19, this interest is continuously rising. As our main goal, we establish an implicit time-discrete SIR (susceptible people–infectious people–recovered people) model. For this purpose, we first introduce its continuous variant with time-varying transmission and recovery rates and, as our first contribution, discuss thoroughly its properties. With respect to these results, we develop different possible time-discrete SIR models, we derive our implicit time-discrete SIR model in contrast to many other works which mainly investigate explicit time-discrete schemes and, as our main contribution, show unique solvability and further desirable properties compared to its continuous version. We thoroughly show that many of the desired properties of the time-continuous case are still valid in the time-discrete implicit case. Especially, we prove an upper error bound for our time-discrete implicit numerical scheme. Finally, we apply our proposed time-discrete SIR model to currently available data regarding the spread of COVID-19 in Germany and Iran.
22 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed regression models to explain the determinants of DRT customer satisfaction and found no evidence that the presence of other guests in the vehicle had any negative impact on customer satisfaction.
Abstract: The effects of demographic change and the lack of acceptance represent some of the main problems for the public transport infrastructure in rural areas. As a consequence, the development of new transport service options becomes especially relevant for rural communities. The Max-Planck-Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization developed a new form of Demand Responsive Transport the EcoBus to examine the viability of new DRT systems in rural Germany. Our work draws on customer satisfaction data during the trial runs of the EcoBus. Based on the survey data, this paper develops regression models to explain the determinants of DRT customer satisfaction. Our main findings include the importance of waiting times and the ease of entry for overall customer satisfaction. Nevertheless, we found no evidence that the presence of other guests in the vehicle had any negative impact on customer satisfaction. Findings of other works that women are significantly more likely to use DRT services could not be validated from our data.
19 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the determinants of transport mode choice for trips in the metropolitan area of the Mexican Valley were examined using a data set from the Mexican household travel survey (Encuesta Origen - Destino).
16 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the impact of interventions on outbreak dynamics for South Africa, exhibiting the largest case numbers across sub-saharan Africa, before and after their national lockdown.
Abstract: The future dynamics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in African countries is largely unclear. Simultaneously, required strengths of intervention measures are strongly debated because containing COVID-19 in favor of the weak health care system largely conflicts with socio-economic hardships. Here we analyze the impact of interventions on outbreak dynamics for South Africa, exhibiting the largest case numbers across sub-saharan Africa, before and after their national lockdown. Past data indicate strongly reduced but still supracritical growth after lockdown. Moreover, large-scale agent-based simulations given different future scenarios for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality with 1.14 million inhabitants, based on detailed activity and mobility survey data of about 10% of the population, similarly suggest that current containment may be insufficient to not overload local intensive care capacity. Yet, enduring, slightly stronger or more specific interventions, combined with sufficient compliance, may constitute a viable option for interventions for South Africa.
16 citations
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TL;DR: The COVID-ABS is a new SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) agent-based model that aims to simulate the pandemic dynamics using a society of agents emulating people, business and government and is a useful tool to assist politicians and health authorities to plan their actions against theCOVID-19 epidemic.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling the spread of the virus. This paper proposes the COVID-ABS, a new SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) agent-based model that aims to simulate the pandemic dynamics using a society of agents emulating people, business and government. Seven different scenarios of social distancing interventions were analyzed, with varying epidemiological and economic effects: (1) do nothing, (2) lockdown, (3) conditional lockdown, (4) vertical isolation, (5) partial isolation, (6) use of face masks, and (7) use of face masks together with 50% of adhesion to social isolation. In the impossibility of implementing scenarios with lockdown, which present the lowest number of deaths and highest impact on the economy, scenarios combining the use of face masks and partial isolation can be the more realistic for implementation in terms of social cooperation. The COVID-ABS model was implemented in Python programming language, with source code publicly available. The model can be easily extended to other societies by changing the input parameters, as well as allowing the creation of a multitude of other scenarios. Therefore, it is a useful tool to assist politicians and health authorities to plan their actions against the COVID-19 epidemic.
297 citations
01 Sep 2020
TL;DR: There is currently no evidence for intrauterine infection caused by vertical transmission in women who develop COVID-19 pneumonia in late pregnancy, according to this small group of cases.
Abstract: Summary Background Previous studies on the pneumonia outbreak caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were based on information from the general population. Limited data are available for pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 in pregnancy and the intrauterine vertical transmission potential of COVID-19 infection. Methods Clinical records, laboratory results, and chest CT scans were retrospectively reviewed for nine pregnant women with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia (ie, with maternal throat swab samples that were positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) who were admitted to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, from Jan 20 to Jan 31, 2020. Evidence of intrauterine vertical transmission was assessed by testing for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in amniotic fluid, cord blood, and neonatal throat swab samples. Breastmilk samples were also collected and tested from patients after the first lactation. Findings All nine patients had a caesarean section in their third trimester. Seven patients presented with a fever. Other symptoms, including cough (in four of nine patients), myalgia (in three), sore throat (in two), and malaise (in two), were also observed. Fetal distress was monitored in two cases. Five of nine patients had lymphopenia ( Interpretation The clinical characteristics of COVID-19 pneumonia in pregnant women were similar to those reported for non-pregnant adult patients who developed COVID-19 pneumonia. Findings from this small group of cases suggest that there is currently no evidence for intrauterine infection caused by vertical transmission in women who develop COVID-19 pneumonia in late pregnancy. Funding Hubei Science and Technology Plan, Wuhan University Medical Development Plan.
181 citations
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TL;DR: Richard Titmuss’s book The Gift Relationship became a foundational text on the ethics and organisational principles governing healthcare and social policy and continues to provoke and engage us to explore more deeply how each society decides how it meets the health needs of its citizens.
Abstract: Richard Titmuss’s book The Gift Relationship , first published in 1970, became a foundational text on the ethics and organisational principles governing healthcare and social policy. Read and reread by at least three generations of public policy makers, health professionals, health advocates, and researchers, the book continues to provoke and engage us to explore more deeply how each society decides how it meets the health needs of its citizens.
The Gift Relationship was written as a response to MH Cooper and AJ Culyer’s 1968 monograph The Price of Blood , which appeared under the imprimatur of the free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs. The Price of Blood argued that there was a role for competitive markets …
148 citations
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Lagos State University1, University of Pretoria2, Healthcare Improvement Scotland3, University of Glasgow4, University of Belgrade5, University of Botswana6, University of Adelaide7, University of Bamenda8, Memorial Hospital of South Bend9, University of Ghana10, University of Health and Allied Sciences11, University of Nairobi12, University of KwaZulu-Natal13, University of Malawi14, University of Namibia15, Ekiti State University16, University of Pittsburgh17, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University18, Qassim University19, University of Khartoum20, Egerton University21, University of Zambia22, College of Health Sciences, Bahrain23, University of London24, University of Zimbabwe25, University of Liverpool26, University of Verona27, Jagiellonian University Medical College28, Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences29, Hawler Medical University30, University of Manchester31, RMIT University32, Hanoi University33
TL;DR: There are multiple activities across Africa to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and address misinformation, which can have catastrophic consequences, assisted by the WHO and others, which appear to be working in a number of countries.
Abstract: Background The COVID-19 pandemic has already claimed considerable lives. There are major concerns in Africa due to existing high prevalence rates for both infectious and non-infectious diseases and limited resources in terms of personnel, beds and equipment. Alongside this, concerns that lockdown and other measures will have on prevention and management of other infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). NCDs are an increasing issue with rising morbidity and mortality rates. The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that a lack of nets and treatment could result in up to 18 million additional cases of malaria and up to 30,000 additional deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Objective Document current prevalence and mortality rates from COVID-19 alongside economic and other measures to reduce its spread and impact across Africa. In addition, suggested ways forward among all key stakeholder groups. Our approach Contextualise the findings from a wide range of publications including internet-based publications coupled with input from senior-level personnel. Ongoing activities Prevalence and mortality rates are currently lower in Africa than among several Western countries and the USA. This could be due to a number of factors including early instigation of lockdown and border closures, the younger age of the population, lack of robust reporting systems and as yet unidentified genetic and other factors. Innovation is accelerating to address concerns with available equipment. There are ongoing steps to address the level of misinformation and its consequences including fines. There are also ongoing initiatives across Africa to start addressing the unintended consequences of COVID-19 activities including lockdown measures and their impact on NCDs including the likely rise in mental health disorders, exacerbated by increasing stigma associated with COVID-19. Strategies include extending prescription lengths, telemedicine and encouraging vaccination. However, these need to be accelerated to prevent increased morbidity and mortality. Conclusion There are multiple activities across Africa to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and address misinformation, which can have catastrophic consequences, assisted by the WHO and others, which appear to be working in a number of countries. Research is ongoing to clarify the unintended consequences given ongoing concerns to guide future activities. Countries are learning from each other.
137 citations
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TL;DR: In this article , the authors estimated age-specific and all-age IFR by matching seroprevalence surveys to total COVID-19 mortality rates in a population.
106 citations