Other affiliations: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, University of Edinburgh ...read more
Bio: Jan Esper is an academic researcher from University of Mainz. The author has contributed to research in topics: Dendrochronology & Climate change. The author has an hindex of 75, co-authored 254 publications receiving 19280 citations. Previous affiliations of Jan Esper include Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research & Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.
Papers published on a yearly basis
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that carefully selected tree-ring chronologies from 14 sites in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics can preserve such coherent large-scale, multicentennial temperature trends if proper methods of analysis are used.
Abstract: Preserving multicentennial climate variability in long tree-ring records is critically important for reconstructing the full range of temperature variability over the past 1000 years. This allows the putative “Medieval Warm Period” (MWP) to be described and to be compared with 20th-century warming in modeling and attribution studies. We demonstrate that carefully selected tree-ring chronologies from 14 sites in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics can preserve such coherent large-scale, multicentennial temperature trends if proper methods of analysis are used. In addition, we show that the average of these chronologies supports the large-scale occurrence of the MWP over the NH extratropics.
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research1, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research2, University of Freiburg3, University of Innsbruck4, Harvard University5, University of Arizona6, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne7, United States Department of State8, Deutsches Archäologisches Institut9, University of Giessen10, University of Mainz11
TL;DR: Reconstruction of tree ring–based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.
Abstract: Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.
TL;DR: A 947-year-long multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction is presented and a persistent positive NAO is found during the Medieval Climate Anomaly to indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions into the Little Ice Age (LIA).
Abstract: The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was the most recent pre-industrial era warm interval of European climate, yet its driving mechanisms remain uncertain. We present here a 947-year-long multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction and find a persistent positive NAO during the MCA. Supplementary reconstructions based on climate model results and proxy data indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions into the Little Ice Age (LIA). Globally distributed proxy data suggest that this NAO shift is one aspect of a global MCA-LIA climate transition that probably was coupled to prevailing La Nina-like conditions amplified by an intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA.
Federal Urdu University1, Columbia University2, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution3, Addis Ababa University4, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology5, University of Trieste6, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research7, University of Montpellier8, University of Bergen9, University of Chile10, Austral University of Chile11, University of Tasmania12, Australian Antarctic Division13, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration14, University of Mainz15, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden16, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology17, Chinese Academy of Sciences18, University of Melbourne19, Complutense University of Madrid20, Université catholique de Louvain21, University of the Witwatersrand22, Hydrologic Research Center23, University of Bern24, University of Helsinki25, Northern Arizona University26, Fukushima University27, Stockholm University28, Université Paris-Saclay29, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research30, University of Giessen31, Swansea University32, Desert Research Institute33, National Scientific and Technical Research Council34, British Antarctic Survey35, Nagoya University36, University of Brighton37, Florida State University38, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research39, University of New South Wales40, University of Exeter41, Centro de Estudios Científicos42, University of Florence43, University of Texas at Austin44, Russian Academy of Sciences45, University of Washington46, National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research47, University of Arizona48, Ghent University49, University of Ottawa50, University of Copenhagen51, University of Colorado Boulder52, Shinshu University53
TL;DR: The authors reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia and found that the most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century.
Abstract: Past global climate changes had strong regional expression To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years
University of East Anglia1, Australian Institute of Marine Science2, Cooperative Research Centre3, University of Copenhagen4, University of Bern5, Alfred University6, Environment Canada7, Pennsylvania State University8, Goddard Institute for Space Studies9, National Center for Atmospheric Research10, Columbia University11, Georgia Institute of Technology12, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research13, Université catholique de Louvain14, Hydrologic Research Center15, University of Bergen16, Ohio State University17, University of Arizona18, University of Bremen19, University of Edinburgh20, British Antarctic Survey21
TL;DR: A review of late-Holocene palaeoclimaoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006 as mentioned in this paper, emphasizing current issues in their use for climate reconstruction; various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate model simulations of the past millennium.
Abstract: This review of late-Holocene palaeoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies derived from climate model runs, where the `answer' is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations. First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling should be concentrated.
28 Jul 2005
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Queen's University Belfast1, University of St Andrews2, Aix-Marseille University3, Historic England4, University of Sheffield5, University of Oxford6, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research7, Xi'an Jiaotong University8, University of Minnesota9, Nanjing Normal University10, University of Hohenheim11, University of Kiel12, University of California, Santa Cruz13, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory14, ETH Zurich15, University of Waikato16, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution17, Heidelberg University18, Cornell University19, Lund University20, University of New South Wales21, University of Arizona22, University of Groningen23, University of Bristol24, University of Glasgow25, University of California, Irvine26, University of Bern27, Aarhus University28, Nagoya University29, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research30, National Museum of Japanese History31, University of Bologna32
TL;DR: In this article, the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP.
Abstract: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
TL;DR: It is found that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account, and it is proposed that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003.
Abstract: Instrumental observations1,2 and reconstructions3,4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past ∼150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5,6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.