Jan Kynčl

Bio: Jan Kynčl is an academic researcher from Charles University in Prague. The author has contributed to research in topics: Topological graph & Disjoint sets. The author has an hindex of 19, co-authored 131 publications receiving 2382 citations. Previous affiliations of Jan Kynčl include École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne & Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics.

Excess cardiovascular mortality associated with cold spells in the Czech Republic

Abstract: Background The association between cardiovascular mortality and winter cold spells was evaluated in the population of the Czech Republic over 21-yr period 1986–2006. No comprehensive study on cold-related mortality in central Europe has been carried out despite the fact that cold air invasions are more frequent and severe in this region than in western and southern Europe.

Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021

Abstract: Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851–733,744; 23–62%). Impact by country ranged 6–93%, largest when implementation was early.

Impacts of hot and cold spells differ for acute and chronic ischaemic heart diseases

Abstract: Many studies have reported associations between temperature extremes and cardiovascular mortality but little has been understood about differences in the effects on acute and chronic diseases. The present study examines hot and cold spell effects on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the Czech Republic during 1994–2009, with emphasis upon differences in the effects on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and chronic IHD. We use analogous definitions for hot and cold spells based on quantiles of daily average temperature anomalies, thus allowing for comparison of results for summer hot spells and winter cold spells. Daily mortality data were standardised to account for the long-term trend and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Periods when the data were affected by epidemics of influenza and other acute respiratory infections were removed from the analysis. Both hot and cold spells were associated with excess IHD mortality. For hot spells, chronic IHD was responsible for most IHD excess deaths in both male and female populations, and the impacts were much more pronounced in the 65+ years age group. The excess mortality from AMI was much lower compared to chronic IHD mortality during hot spells. For cold spells, by contrast, the relative excess IHD mortality was most pronounced in the younger age group (0–64 years), and we found different pattern for chronic IHD and AMI, with larger effects on AMI. The findings show that while excess deaths due to IHD during hot spells are mainly of persons with chronic diseases whose health had already been compromised, cardiovascular changes induced by cold stress may result in deaths from acute coronary events rather than chronic IHD, and this effect is important also in the younger population. This suggests that the most vulnerable population groups as well as the most affected cardiovascular diseases differ between hot and cold spells, which needs to be taken into account when designing and implementing preventive actions.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract: Summary Background Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages Methods We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000–16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016 Findings In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475–720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749–1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584–2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445–1 770 660) Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7–69·6) Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden Interpretation Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Report Title: The burden of liver disease in Europe: a review of available epidemiological data

Abstract: Chronic viral hepatitis B is the second major cause of both cirrhosis and liver cancer. Between 0.5% and 0.7% of the European population is affected by chronic hepatitis B, with the highest prevalence being recorded in Romania (5.6%) and Greece (3.4%) [5-12]. Throughout Europe, an average of only 23% of patients knew of hepatitis B at the time of their diagnosis [13]. Data suggest there has been a reduction in the yearly incidence of HBV, accompanied by a decline in prevalence related to the vaccination campaigns that have been mounted throughout Europe [12, 14]. Chronic hepatitis C is an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma, which develops several decades after infection. Since the discovery of the virus in the late eighties, the number of new cases of infection has dropped substantially. Prevalence rates of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the last

Pandemics, transformations and tourism: be careful what you wish for

Abstract: Disease outbreaks and pandemics have long played a role in societal and economic change. However, the nature of such change is selective, meaning that it is sometimes minimal and, at other times, and change or transformation may be unexpected, potentially even reinforcing contemporary paradigms. A comprehensive overview of pandemics and their effects is provided. This is used to help contextualise the COVID-19 pandemic, its impact on tourism and government, industry and consumer response. Drawing on the available literature, factors that will affect tourism and destination recovery are then identified. Some measures will continue or even expand present growth orientations in tourism while others may contribute to sustainability. It is concluded that that the selective nature of the effects of COVID-19 and the measures to contain it may lead to reorientation of tourism in some cases, but in others will contribute to policies reflecting the selfish nationalism of some countries. However, the response to planetary limits and sustainable tourism requires a global approach. Despite clear evidence of this necessity, the possibility for a comprehensive transformation of the tourism system remains extremely limited without a fundamental transformation of the entire planet.