In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

TH1OSE WHO WOULD CODIFY THE MEANINGS OF WORDS fight a losing battle, for words, like the ideas and things they are mneant to signify, have a history. Neither Oxford dons nor the Academie FranUaise have been entirely able to stem the tide, to capture and fix mneanings free of the play of huinan invention and imagination. Mary Wortley Montagu added bite to her witty denunciation "of the fair sex" ("my only consolation for being of that gender has been the assurance of never being mnarried to any one among them") by deliberately misusing the grammatical reference. ' Through the ages, people have made figurative allusions by employing gramnmnatical termns to evoke traits of character or sexuality. For example, the usage offered by the Dictionnaire de la langue francaise in 1876 was, "On ne sait de quel genre il est, s'il est mile ou femelle, se dit d'un homnme tres-cache, dont on ne connait pas les sentiments."2 And Gladstone made this distinction in 1878: "Athene has nothing of sex except the gender, nothing of the woman except the form."3 Most recently-too recently to find its way into dictionaries or the Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences-feminists have in a imore literal and serious vein begun to use "gender" as a way of referring to the social organization of the relationship between the sexes. The connection to grammar is both explicit and full of unexamined possibilities. Explicit because the grammatical usage involves formal

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Gender: A Useful Category of Historical Analysis

On exports and economic growth

The twentieth century gave rise to profound changes in traditional sex roles. However, the force of this 'rising tide' has varied among rich and poor societies around the globe, as well as among younger and older generations. Rising Tide sets out to understand how modernization has changed cultural attitudes towards gender equality and to analyze the political consequences of this process. The core argument suggests that women and men's lives have been altered in a two-stage modernization process consisting of (i) the shift from agrarian to industrialized societies and (ii) the move from industrial towards post industrial societies. This book is the first to systematically compare attitudes towards gender equality worldwide, comparing almost 70 nations that run the gamut from rich to poor, agrarian to postindustrial. Rising Tide is essential reading for those interested in understanding issues of comparative politics, public opinion, political behavior, political development, and political sociology.

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Rising Tide: Gender Equality and Cultural Change Around the World

Richard Rorty's Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature brings to light the deep sense of crisis within the profession of academic philosophy which is similar to the paralyzing pluralism in contemporary theology and the inveterate indeterminacy of literary criticism. Richard Rorty's provocative and profound meditations impel philosophers to examine the problematic status of their discipline— only to discover that modern European philosophy has come to an end. Rorty strikes a deathblow to modern European philosophy by telling a story about the emergence, development and decline of its primary props: the correspondence theory of truth, the notion of privileged representations and the idea of a self-reflective transcendental subject. Rorty's fascinating tale—his-story —is regulated by three fundamental shifts which he delineates in detail and promotes in principle: the move toward anti-realism or conventionalism in ontology, the move toward the demythologizing of the Myth of the Given or anti-foundationalism in epistemology, and the move toward detranscendentalizing the subject or dismissing the mind as a sphere of inquiry. The chief importance of Rorty's book is that it brings together in an original and intelligible narrative the major insights of the patriarchs of postmodern American philosophy—W. V. Quine, Wilfred Sellars, and Nelson Goodman— and persuasively presents the radical consequences of their views for contemporary philosophy. Rorty credits Wittgenstein, Heidegger and Dewey for having "brought us into a period of 'revolutionary' philosophy" by undermining the prevailing Cartesian and Kantian paradigms and advancing new conceptions of philosophy. And these monumental figures surely inspire Rorty. Yet, Rorty's philosophical debts—the actual sources of his particular anti-Cartesian and antiKantian arguments—are Quine's holism, Sellars' anti-foundationalism, and Goodman's pluralism. In short, despite his adamant attack on analytical philosophy—the last stage of modern European philosophy—Rorty feels most comfortable with the analytical form of philosophical argumentation (shunned by Wittgenstein and Heidegger). From the disparate figures of Wittgenstein, Heidegger, and Dewey, Rorty gets a historicist directive: to eschew the quest for certainty and the search for foundations.

Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature

The prevailing explanation for why the Industrial Revolution occurred first in Britain is Robert Allen’s (2009) ‘high-wage economy’ view, which claims that the high cost of labour relative to capital and fuel incentivized innovation and the adoption of new techniques. This paper presents new empirical evidence on hand spinning before the Industrial Revolution and demonstrates that there was no such ‘high-wage economy’ in spinning, a leading sector of industrialization. We quantify the working lives of frequently ignored female and child spinners who were crucial to the British textile industry in the Early Modern period with evidence of productivity and wages from the late sixteenth to the early nineteenth century. Our results show that spinning was a widespread, low-wage, low-productivity employment, in line with the Humphries (2013) view of the motivations for the factory system.

Spinning the Industrial Revolution

Apprenticing in a Market Town: The Story of William Harding's Charity, Aylesbury, 1719-2000

The status of women economists in UK Universities

Part 1: Introduction 1. The Dilemmas of Lone Motherhood: Key issues for feminist economics "Randy Albelda, Susan Himmelweit "and "Jane Humphries " Part 2: Articles 2. How Men Matter: Housework and self-provisioning among rural single-mother and married-couple families in Vermont, US "Margaret Nelson "3. Lone Mothers in Russia: Soviet and post-Soviet policy "Judith Record McKinney "4. Welfare Rules, Business Cycles, and Employment Dynamics among Lone Parents in Norway "Randi Kjeldstad" and "Marit RA nsen "5. Family Economy Workers or Caring Mothers?: Male breadwinning and widows' pensions in Norway and the UK "Anne Skevik "6. The Commodification of Lone Mothers' Labor: A comparison of US and German policies "Lisa Giddings, Irene Dingeldey "and "Susan Ulbricht "7. Welfare as We [Don't] Know It: A review and feminist critique of welfare reform research in the United States "Karen Christopher "8. Mundane Heroines: Conflict, ethnicity, gender, and female headship in Eastern Sri Lanka "Kanchana N. Ruwanpura" and "Jane Humphries "9. The Route Matters: Poverty and inequality among lone-mother households in Russia "Shireen Kanji " Part 3: Exploration 10. All the Lesbian Mothers are Coupled, All the Single Mothers are Straight, and All of Us are Tired: Reflections on being a single lesbian mom "June Lapidus " Part 4: Dialogue, Lone Mothers: What is to be done? 11. Introduction "Sue Himmelweit "12. What Policies Toward Lone Mothers Should We Aim For? "Barbara Bergmann "13. Is Work Worth it for Lone Parents? "Kate Green "14. An Immodest Proposal "Randy Albelda "15. Who Cares? "Charlotte Koren"

Dilemmas of lone motherhood

Economic Thought Beyond Economic Man: Feminist Theory and Economics . Edited by Marianne A. Ferber and Julie A. Nelson. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1993. Pp. vii, 178. $35.00, cloth; $12.95, paper.

Jane Humphries

Papers

Spinning the Industrial Revolution

Apprenticing in a Market Town: The Story of William Harding's Charity, Aylesbury, 1719-2000

The status of women economists in UK Universities

Dilemmas of lone motherhood

Economic Thought Beyond Economic Man: Feminist Theory and Economics . Edited by Marianne A. Ferber and Julie A. Nelson. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1993. Pp. vii, 178. $35.00, cloth; $12.95, paper.