In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

TH1OSE WHO WOULD CODIFY THE MEANINGS OF WORDS fight a losing battle, for words, like the ideas and things they are mneant to signify, have a history. Neither Oxford dons nor the Academie FranUaise have been entirely able to stem the tide, to capture and fix mneanings free of the play of huinan invention and imagination. Mary Wortley Montagu added bite to her witty denunciation "of the fair sex" ("my only consolation for being of that gender has been the assurance of never being mnarried to any one among them") by deliberately misusing the grammatical reference. ' Through the ages, people have made figurative allusions by employing gramnmnatical termns to evoke traits of character or sexuality. For example, the usage offered by the Dictionnaire de la langue francaise in 1876 was, "On ne sait de quel genre il est, s'il est mile ou femelle, se dit d'un homnme tres-cache, dont on ne connait pas les sentiments."2 And Gladstone made this distinction in 1878: "Athene has nothing of sex except the gender, nothing of the woman except the form."3 Most recently-too recently to find its way into dictionaries or the Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences-feminists have in a imore literal and serious vein begun to use "gender" as a way of referring to the social organization of the relationship between the sexes. The connection to grammar is both explicit and full of unexamined possibilities. Explicit because the grammatical usage involves formal

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Gender: A Useful Category of Historical Analysis

On exports and economic growth

The twentieth century gave rise to profound changes in traditional sex roles. However, the force of this 'rising tide' has varied among rich and poor societies around the globe, as well as among younger and older generations. Rising Tide sets out to understand how modernization has changed cultural attitudes towards gender equality and to analyze the political consequences of this process. The core argument suggests that women and men's lives have been altered in a two-stage modernization process consisting of (i) the shift from agrarian to industrialized societies and (ii) the move from industrial towards post industrial societies. This book is the first to systematically compare attitudes towards gender equality worldwide, comparing almost 70 nations that run the gamut from rich to poor, agrarian to postindustrial. Rising Tide is essential reading for those interested in understanding issues of comparative politics, public opinion, political behavior, political development, and political sociology.

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Rising Tide: Gender Equality and Cultural Change Around the World

Richard Rorty's Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature brings to light the deep sense of crisis within the profession of academic philosophy which is similar to the paralyzing pluralism in contemporary theology and the inveterate indeterminacy of literary criticism. Richard Rorty's provocative and profound meditations impel philosophers to examine the problematic status of their discipline— only to discover that modern European philosophy has come to an end. Rorty strikes a deathblow to modern European philosophy by telling a story about the emergence, development and decline of its primary props: the correspondence theory of truth, the notion of privileged representations and the idea of a self-reflective transcendental subject. Rorty's fascinating tale—his-story —is regulated by three fundamental shifts which he delineates in detail and promotes in principle: the move toward anti-realism or conventionalism in ontology, the move toward the demythologizing of the Myth of the Given or anti-foundationalism in epistemology, and the move toward detranscendentalizing the subject or dismissing the mind as a sphere of inquiry. The chief importance of Rorty's book is that it brings together in an original and intelligible narrative the major insights of the patriarchs of postmodern American philosophy—W. V. Quine, Wilfred Sellars, and Nelson Goodman— and persuasively presents the radical consequences of their views for contemporary philosophy. Rorty credits Wittgenstein, Heidegger and Dewey for having "brought us into a period of 'revolutionary' philosophy" by undermining the prevailing Cartesian and Kantian paradigms and advancing new conceptions of philosophy. And these monumental figures surely inspire Rorty. Yet, Rorty's philosophical debts—the actual sources of his particular anti-Cartesian and antiKantian arguments—are Quine's holism, Sellars' anti-foundationalism, and Goodman's pluralism. In short, despite his adamant attack on analytical philosophy—the last stage of modern European philosophy—Rorty feels most comfortable with the analytical form of philosophical argumentation (shunned by Wittgenstein and Heidegger). From the disparate figures of Wittgenstein, Heidegger, and Dewey, Rorty gets a historicist directive: to eschew the quest for certainty and the search for foundations.

Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature

This collection surveys the contributions which economists have made to our understanding of gender. The articles reflect both the strengths and weaknesses of mainstream economics in conceptualizing and explaining gender differences. They include selections from and commentaries on the classics which illustrate the relevant aspects of the methodological developement of economics; important treatments of the key issues such as female labour supply and male-female wage differences; recent feminist charges that economics is methodologically unsuited to the analysis of gender; and evidence on the historical significance of women's work. The book includes 27 articles dating from 1923 to 1994, and includes contributions from: D. Aigner, M. Barton, G. Becker, A. Beller, B. Bergman B. Burchell, G.C. Cain, M.E. Corcoron, P.N. Courant, F.Y. Edgeworth, P. England, J.F. Ermisch, M. Ferber, N. Folbre, E. Garnsey, M.Gunderson, H.I. Hartman, S. Horrell, H.E. Joshi, R. Layard, H. Lowry, S. Levin, J. Mincer, J.A. Nelson, S. Owen, S. Pdachek, R.H. Pollack, M. Pujol, J.Rubery, H. Sanborn, W. Shephard, F.R. Wolley, R.E. Wright, A Zabalza.

Gender and Economics

Accounts of the British fertility decline have turned on the rise of the male breadwinner family, which by placing the responsibility for supporting women and children on men converted them to a preference for smaller families. This paper uses working-class autobiography of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries to develop understanding of sources of income and patterns of dependency and to illuminate the motives towards smaller families. Even before 1800 fathers` duties were to work hard to support their families, but male responsibilities did not extend to stretching male wages to cover the variable demands of smaller or larger families. Mothers often sacrificed their own diets and wellbeing to stretch resources. Yet for them children were supports as well as burdens. Sons could earn more than their mothers and surrendered their earnings willingly. Through the family, resources were transferred from older working children to younger dependent siblings. Children`s diets and schooling were eroded by the appearance of new babies and their entry into early work prompted by the burden of dependency. Their experiences as family members and child workers were recycled with a lag into recognition of the costs of larger families and slowly and imperfectly into agreement about the need for fertility control.

`Because they are too menny...` children, mothers, and fertility decline: The evidence from working-class autobiographies of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries

A new source, 1840s Admiralty seamen's tickets, is used to explore three anthropometric issues. First, did being born in a city, with its associated disamenities, lead to stunting? Second, did being born near a city, whose markets sucked away foodstuffs, lead to stunting? Third, did child labour lead to stunting? We find that only those born in very large cities suffered a level of stunting that contemporaries could have observed. Being born near a city, which gave parents opportunities to trade away family calories, and perhaps increased exposure to disease, did not cause stunting. Britain was a well-integrated market; all families, whatever their locations, had options to trade and faced similar disease environments. Finally, although adults who had gone to sea young were shorter than those who did not enlist until fully grown, going to sea did not stunt. Instead, plentiful food at sea attracted stunted adolescents, who reversed most of their stunting as a result. But child labour at sea was different from other forms of children's work because wages were largely hypothecated to the child as food and shelter onboard. In contrast, where wages were paid to the child or his parents in cash, they became submerged in the household economy and their benefits were shared with other family members.

Cities, market integration, and going to sea: stunting and the standard of living in early nineteenth‐century England and Wales1

Existing measures of historical real wages suffer from the fundamental problem that workers’ annual incomes are estimated on the basis of day wages without knowing the length of the working year. We circumvent this problem by presenting a novel wage series of male workers employed on annual contracts. We use evidence of labour market arbitrage to argue that existing real wage estimates are badly off target, because they overestimate the medieval working year but underestimate the industrial one. Our data suggests that modern economic growth began two centuries earlier than hitherto thought and was driven by an ‘Industrious Revolution’.

Unreal Wages? A New Empirical Foundation for the Study of Living Standards and Economic Growth in England, 1260‐1860

Commoners: Common Right, Enclosure and Social Change in England, 1700–1820. By J. M. Neeson. Past and Present Publications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993. Pp. xiv, 382. $54.95.

Jane Humphries

Papers

Gender and Economics

`Because they are too menny...` children, mothers, and fertility decline: The evidence from working-class autobiographies of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries

Cities, market integration, and going to sea: stunting and the standard of living in early nineteenth‐century England and Wales1

Unreal Wages? A New Empirical Foundation for the Study of Living Standards and Economic Growth in England, 1260‐1860

Commoners: Common Right, Enclosure and Social Change in England, 1700–1820. By J. M. Neeson. Past and Present Publications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993. Pp. xiv, 382. $54.95.