Returns to investment in education: A global update

Examines the factors motivating international student choice of the host country. It describes a “push‐pull” model motivating the student’s desire to seek overseas education and influencing the decision process in selection of a final study destination. Drawing on the findings from research studies undertaken in Indonesia, Taiwan, China and India, the paper examines the factors influencing host country selection and additional research that examines the factors influencing choice of final host institution. Based on these findings the paper argues that economic and social forces within the home country serve to “push” students abroad. However, the decision as to which host country they will select is dependent on a variety of “pull” factors. After drawing together the findings, the paper then examines the implications for governments and education institutions seeking to recruit international students.

¿Push-Pull¿ Factors Influencing International Student Destination Choice

The demographic transition a change from high to low rates of mortality and fertility has been more dramatic in East Asia during this century than in any other region or historical period. By introducing demographic variables into an empirical model of economic growth, this essay shows that this transition has contributed substantially to East Asia's so-called economic miracle. The 'miracle' occurred in part because East Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-age population growing at a much faster pace than its dependent population during the period 1965-1990, thereby expanding the per capita productive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect was not inevitable; rather, it occured because East Asian countries had social, economic, and political institutions and policies that allowed them to realize the growth potential created by the transition. The empirical analyses indicate that population growth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth; this effect operates only when the dependent and working-age populations are growing at different rates. An important implication of these results is that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in Southeast and South Asia.

Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia

The demographic transition a change from high to low rates of mortality and fertility has been more dramatic in East Asia during the twentieth century than in any other region or historical period. By introducing demographic variables into an empirical model of economic growth, this article shows that this transition has contributed substantially to East Asia's so called economic miracle. The miracle occurred in part because East Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working age population growing at a much faster rate than its dependent population during 1965-90, thereby expanding the per capita productive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect was not inevitable; rather, it occurred because East Asian countries had social, economic, and political institutions and policies that allowed them to realize the growth potential created by the transition. The empirical analyses indicate that population growth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth; this effect operates only when the dependent and working age populations are growing at different rates. These results imply that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in Southeast and South Asia.

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Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia.

The principal aim of this book is to make planners and policymakers more aware of the problems that can arise in developing investment strategies for education and the analytical tools and information that are available to help solve them. It draws both on World Bank analysis and research and on the wider literature on planning educational investment. Among the topics discussed are the contribution of education to economic and human development, cost-benefit analysis, the demand for educated manpower, finance, the efficiency and quality of education, equity considerations, and the links between investment in education and in other sectors.

Education for Development: An Analysis of Investment Choices

The Singapore economy has undergone significant stages of development since the 1960s. It has grown from its traditional role as a regional port and distribution center in the 1960s to an international manufacturing and service center in the 1970s and 1980s, and now into a center of science-based manufacturing and knowledge-intensive technical services. Much has been written to explain this success. Emphasis has been placed on the early adoption of an export-oriented strategy for industrialization, high savings and investment rates, a stable macroeconomic environment, and even socio cultural traits that support successful industrialization. This volume documents a less-explored aspect of Singapore's economic development: it examines the transformation of the education and training system since the country's independence in 1965 and how the process contributed to skills formation and, hence, economic change.

Toward a Better Future: Education and Training for Economic Development in Singapore Since 1965

This study analyses the international flow of third level developing country students to advanced countries from the perspective of sending authorities in developing countries. The magnitude of this flow can hardly be overemphasized; on the basis of a conservative estimate made in the article, the annual loss of foreign exchange entailed by this flow amounted to 17 percent of the interest repayment on total external debts of the lesser developed countries (LDCs) in 1979, a sum which the developing countries themselves can hardly ignore. On an aggregate basis, our principal hypothesis is that the outflow of students is determined primarily by excess demand for third level education in developing countries. The empirical results support this hypothesis, while pointing to the importance of other factors. Excess demand for third level education in the developing countries is one of the most important determinants of the flow of developing country students to the advanced countries. On the whole, expansion of developing country tertiary education, at the national or regional levels, could effectively divert some of the flow to local institutions. Aside from this, expansion can also be argued on the basis of the high returns to third level education in developing countries compared to the returns to physical capital, as well as the considerable economies of scale associated with this level of instruction. Further, given the willingness/ability of the students to pay, as witnessed by the fact that the vast majority of developing country students finance privately their education abroad, the expansion of third level education in LDCs could be funded substantially via user charges and student loan schemes.

The international flow of third level lesser developed country students to developed countries: Determinants and implications

This report presents a framework - Skills Toward Employment and Productivity (STEP), that provides a simple yet comprehensive way to look at skills development. It brings together research evidence and practical experience from a range of areas-from research on the determinants of early childhood development and learning outcomes, to policy experience with the reform of vocational and technical education systems and labor markets-and provides a set of powerful messages to policymakers, researchers, and practitioners. The report's emphasis on performance measurement and benchmarking, policy and program evaluation, and cross-sectoral approaches focusing on individuals throughout their lifecycle provides a solid platform for developing countries to start exploring reforms.

Stepping up skills for more jobs and higher productivity

Policymakers in most developing countries are concerned about high dropout rates and poor student learning in primary education. The government of the Philippines initiated the dropout intervention program in 1990-92 as part of its effort to address these issues. Under this program, four experimental interventions were randomly assigned to 20 schools in selected low-income areas. Pre and post-intervention data were collected from these schools, as well as from 10 control schools, in order to evaluate the program's impact on dropout behavior and student learning. The economic justification for replication appears to be strongest for the interventions that provided teachers with learning materials, which helped them to pace lessons according to students' differing abilities, and that initiated parent-teacher partnerships, which involved parents in the schooling of their children. The justification was weakest for the school feeding intervention. In addition to the results specific to the Philippines, this research demonstrates the feasibility of monitoring and evaluating interventions in the education sector in other developing countries, including the use of randomized control designs.

Student Outcomes in Philippine Elementary Schools: An Evaluation of Four Experiments

With the end of civil war in 1991, Ethiopia's government launched a New Education and Training Policy in 1994 which, by the early 2000s, had already produced remarkable results. The gross enrollment ratio rose from 20 to 62 percent in primary education between 1993-94 and 2001-02; and in secondary and higher education it climbed, respectively, from 8 to 12 percent and from 0.5 to 1.7 percent. Yet the government can hardly afford to rest on its laurels. Primary education is still not universal, and already there are concerns about plummeting educational quality and the growing pressures to expand post-primary education. Addressing these challenges will require more resources, both public and private. Yet money alone is insufficient. Focusing on primary and secondary education, Education in Ethiopia argues for wise tradeoffs in the use of resources a result that will often require reforming the arrangements for service delivery. These changes, in turn, need to be fostered by giving lower levels of government more leeway to adapt central standards such as those for teacher recruitment and school construction to local conditions, including local resource constraints; and by strengthening accountability for results at all levels of administration in the education system.

Jee-Peng Tan

Papers

Toward a Better Future: Education and Training for Economic Development in Singapore Since 1965

The international flow of third level lesser developed country students to developed countries: Determinants and implications

Stepping up skills for more jobs and higher productivity

Student Outcomes in Philippine Elementary Schools: An Evaluation of Four Experiments

Education in Ethiopia: Strengthening the Foundation for Sustainable Progress