2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

This study surveys the literature examining the privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) We review the history of privatization, the theoretical and empirical evidence on the relative performance of state owned and privately owned firms, the types of privatization, if and by how much privatization has improved the performance of former SOEs in non-transition and transition countries, how investors in privatizations have fared, and the impact of privatization on the development of capital markets and corporate governance. In most settings privatization "works" in that the firms become more efficient, more profitable, and financially healthier, and reward investors.

/pdf/from-state-to-market-a-survey-of-empirical-studies-on-54vi9aent6.pdf

From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization

This paper presents a new database on the timing of systemic banking crises and policy responses to resolve them. The database covers the universe of systemic banking crises for the period 1970-2007, with detailed data on crisis containment and resolution policies for 42 crisis episodes, and also includes data on the timing of currency crises and sovereign debt crises. The database extends and builds on the Caprio, Klingebiel, Laeven, and Noguera (2005) banking crisis database, and is the most complete and detailed database on banking crises to date.

Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database

Economists have long puzzled over the astounding differences in productivity between firms and countries. For example, looking at disaggregated data on U.S. manufacturing industries, Syverson (2004a) found that plants at the 90th percentile produced four times as much as the plant in the 10th percentile on a per-employee basis. Only half of this difference in labor productivity could be accounted for by differential inputs, such as capital intensity. Syverson looked at industries defined at the four-digit level in the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system (now the North American Industry Classification System or NAICS) like 'Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing' or 'Plastics Product Manufacturing.' Foster, Haltiwanger, and Syverson (2008) show large differences in total factor productivity even within very homogeneous goods industries such as boxes and block ice. Some of these productivity differences across firms and plants are temporary, but in large part they persist over time. At the country level, Hall and Jones (1999) and Jones and Romer (2009) show how the stark differences in productivity across countries account for a substantial fraction of the differences in average per capita income. Both at the plant level and at the national level, differences in productivity are typically calculated as a residual-that is, productivity is inferred as the gap between output and inputs that cannot be accounted for by conventionally measured inputs.

/pdf/why-do-management-practices-differ-across-firms-and-58rczn83xl.pdf

Why Do Management Practices Differ across Firms and Countries

Although researchers have documented that many financial crises are associated with severe recessions (Graciela Kaminsky and Carmen Reinhart 1999), very little attention has been paid to whether countries recover from such large negative shocks in the sense that output losses are reversed. A few recent papers show persistent output loss from financial crises in a small set of countries. For instance, Cerra and Saxena (2005a) demonstrate that six Asian countries suffered permanent output loss from the Asian crisis, and Cerra and Saxena (2005b) show that only a tiny fraction of the output loss from Sweden's banking crisis in the early 1990s was recuperated. The graphs in Figure 1 illustrate persistent output loss for selected countries following the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the debt crisis of the early 1980s. In addition to financial crises, many countries experience large negative political shocks, which could include violent conflicts such as civil wars, as well as a deterioration in the country's governance. Such political shocks have the potential for significant disruption to economic activ? ity, as illustrated for a few episodes of civil war (Figure 2). This paper systematically documents the behavior of output following financial and political crises in a large set of 190 countries. While the graphs in Figures 1 and 2 are suggestive, our aim is to formally analyze the impact of financial and political shocks on output in a broad set of countries, particularly whether output losses are recovered. Financial shocks comprise currency, banking, and twin financial crises. For political shocks, we examine civil wars, a deterioration in the quality of political governance, and twin political crises comprising both shocks. We choose civil wars rather than interstate conflicts to ensure that the war occurs on the country's own soil. The military theater for some interstate conflicts may not directly encompass all parties to the conflict. In addition, the increase in wartime spending for an international conflict may boost economic activity in some countries. We also examine the economic impact of a deterioration in a country's political governance or institutional quality. Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson (2001) and Acemoglu et al. (2003) use constraints on the power of the political executive as a measure of institutional quality, and find that it is linked to growth and volatility. Thus, we use this measure to study the shock to political governance. Potential endogeneity of the financial or political crisis is an important issue in estimating the output impact of the crisis. That is, the crisis itself may be a function of a slowdown of economic growth or changes in expectations of future growth. We attempt to address this issue using a few methods that are far from definite, but nonetheless uncover some interesting facts. In particular, we find that the forecasts of growth from an autoregressive model and from consensus surveys are optimistic relative to actual growth occurring during and after a crisis.

/pdf/growth-dynamics-the-myth-of-economic-recovery-2oygm12qh6.pdf

Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery

This paper surveys the recent literature on sovereign debt and relates it to the evolu- tion of the legal principles underlying the sovereign debt market and the experience of the most recent debt crises and defaults. It finds limited support for theories that explain the feasibility of sovereign debt based on either external sanctions or exclu- sion from the international capital market and more support for explanations that emphasize domestic costs of default. The paper concludes that there remains a case for establishing institutions that reduce the cost of default but the design of such institutions is not a trivial task.

The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default

Detailed case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a comprehensive discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises. The debt crises in emerging market countries over the past decade have given rise to renewed debate about crisis prevention and resolution. In Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer examine the facts, the economic theory, and the policy implications of sovereign debt crises. They present detailed case histories of the default and debt crises in seven emerging market countries between 1998 and 2005: Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, Moldova, and Uruguay. These accounts are framed with a comprehensive overview of the history, economics, and legal issues involved and a discussion from both domestic and international perspectives of the policy lessons that can be derived from these experiences. Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer examine how each crisis developed, what the subsequent restructuring encompassed, and how investors and the defaulting country fared. They discuss the new theoretical thinking on sovereign debt and the ultimate costs entailed, for both debtor countries and private creditors. The policy debate is considered first from the perspective of policymakers in emerging market countries and then in terms of international financial architecture. The authors' surveys of legal and economic issues associated with debt crises, and of the crises themselves, are the most comprehensive to be found in the literature on sovereign debt and default, and their theoretical analysis is detailed and nuanced. The book will be a valuable resource for investors as well as for scholars and policymakers.

Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises

https://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/economics/workingpapers/wp0133.pdf

What makes growth sustained

What are the relative roles of macroeconomic variables, structural policies, and initial conditions in explaining the time path of output in transition and the large observed differences in output performance across transition economies? Using a sample of 26 countries, this paper follows a general-to-specific modeling approach that allows for differential effects of policies and initial conditions on the private and state sectors and for time-dependent effects of initial conditions. While showing some fragility to model specification, the results point to the preeminence of structural reforms over both initial conditions and macroeconomic variables in explaining cross-country differences in performance and the timing of the recovery.

https://www.imf.org/-/media/Websites/IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/_wp9973.ashx

The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies : Explaining the Differences

The Greek debt restructuring of 2012 stands out in the history of sovereign defaults. It achieved very large debt relief – over 50 per cent of 2012 GDP – with minimal financial disruption, using a combination of new legal techniques, exceptionally large cash incentives, and official sector pressure on key creditors. But it did so at a cost. The timing and design of the restructuring left money on the table from the perspective of Greece, created a large risk for European taxpayers, and set precedents – particularly in its very generous treatment of holdout creditors – that are likely to make future debt restructurings in Europe more difficult.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/DP9577.pdf?abstractid=2304081&mirid=3

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Papers

The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default

Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises

What makes growth sustained

The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies : Explaining the Differences

The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy