scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Author

John M. Roberts

Other affiliations: International Monetary Fund
Bio: John M. Roberts is an academic researcher from Federal Reserve System. The author has contributed to research in topics: Inflation & Monetary policy. The author has an hindex of 19, co-authored 40 publications receiving 2657 citations. Previous affiliations of John M. Roberts include International Monetary Fund.

Papers
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors take into account information from surveys of inflation expectations and find that inflation is not sticky and that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational, which is a challenge to the New Keynesian model.

535 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: The authors assesses the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, and conclude that temporary stimulus is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it.
Abstract: The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significantly lower initial multipliers.

512 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors compared seven structural DSGE models to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instruments, and compared the results to those of two prominent academic models, such as JEL E12, E13, E52, and E62.
Abstract: The paper subjects seven structural DSGE models, all used heavily by policymaking institutions, to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instruments, and compares the results to those of two prominent academic DSGE models. There is considerable agreement across models on both the absolute and relative sizes of different types of fiscal multipliers. The size of many multipliers is large, particularly for spending and targeted transfers. Fiscal policy is most effective if it has moderate persistence and if monetary policy is accommodative. Permanently higher spending or deficits imply significantly lower initial multipliers. (JEL E12, E13, E52, E62)

331 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors find that the surveys reflect an intermediate degree of rationality: Expectations are neither perfectly rational nor as unsophisticated as simple autoregressive models would suggest, and they also find that a structural New Keynesian model with expectations formation based on the survey results is able to match closely the empirical costs of reducing inflation.
Abstract: New Keynesian models with sticky prices and rational expectations have a difficult time explaining why reducing inflation usually requires a recession. An explanation for the costliness of reducing inflation is that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational. To explore this possibility, I estimate the degree of non-rationality implicit in two survey measures of inflation expectations. I find that the surveys reflect an intermediate degree of rationality: Expectations are neither perfectly rational nor as unsophisticated as simple autoregressive models would suggest. I also find that a structural New Keynesian model with expectations formation based on the survey results is able to match closely the empirical costs of reducing inflation.

196 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors found that the New Keynesian sticky-price model does not fit the U.S. data well; in particular, the model requires additional lags of inflation not implied by the model under rational expectations.
Abstract: The New Keynesian sticky-price model has become increasingly popular for monetary-policy analysis. However, there have been conflicting results on the empirical performance of the model. In this paper, I attempt to reconcile these conflicting claims by examining various specifications of the model within the context of a single framework. I find that the New Keynesian model does not fit the U.S. data well; in particular, the model requires additional lags of inflation not implied by the model under rational expectations. These additional lags have the interpretation that some fraction of the population uses a simple univariate rule for forecasting inflation. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be construed as those of any member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system or any other member of its staff. Earlier versions of this paper were presented in seminars and workshops at the January 2000 Econometric Society meetings in Boston; the European Central Bank; and the Federal Reserve Board. I am grateful to seminar participants for helpful comments.

166 citations


Cited by
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the recent literature on monetary policy rules is presented, and the authors exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework and consider the implications of adding various real word complications.
Abstract: This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. To organize the discussion, we exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real word complications. We concentrate on developing results that are robust across a reasonable variety of competing macroeconomic frameworks. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making credible commitments to fight inflation and consider the implications of frictions such as imperfect information and model uncertainty. Finally, we assess how proposed simple rules, such as the Taylor rule, square with the principles for optimal policy that we describe. We use this same metric to evaluate the recent course of U.S. monetary policy.

4,540 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In contrast to conventional wisdom, this paper showed that gains from commitment may emerge even if the central bank is not trying to inadvisedly push output above its natural level, and also considered the implications of frictions such as imperfect information.
Abstract: The paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making a credible commitment to fight inflation. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that gains from commitment may emerge even if the central bank is not trying to inadvisedly push output above its natural level. We also consider the implications of frictions such as imperfect information.

3,990 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed and estimated a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices, and they concluded that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation.
Abstract: We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting, while statistically significant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we conclude that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation.

2,644 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed and estimated a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward-looking rule to set prices, and the model nests the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case.

2,514 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper explored a monetary policy model with habit formation for consumers, in which consumers' utility depends in part on current consumption relative to past consumption, and found that the responses of both spending and inflation to monetary policy actions are signicantly improved by this modication (JEL D12, E52, E43).
Abstract: This paper explores a monetary policy model with habit formation for consumers, in which consumers’ utility depends in part on current consumption relative to past consumption The empirical tests developed in the paper show that one can reject the hypothesis of no habit formation with tremendous condence, largely because the habit formation model captures the gradual hump-shaped response of real spending to various shocks The paper then embeds the habit consumption specication in a monetary policy model and nds that the responses of both spending and inflation to monetary policy actions are signicantly improved by this modication (JEL D12, E52, E43)

1,255 citations