From the Publisher:
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete andaccessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertaintyand offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognitionin short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information.
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.

Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference

Part I. Introduction: 1. The general theory 2. The postulates of the classical economics 3. The principle of effective demand Part II. Definitions and Ideas: 4. The choice of units 5. Expectation as determining output and employment 6. The definition of income, saving and investment 7. The meaning of saving and investment further considered Part III. The Propensity to Consume: 8. The propensity to consume - i. The objective factors 9. The propensity to consume - ii. The subjective factors 10. The marginal propensity to consume and the multiplier Part IV. The Inducement to Invest: 11. The marginal efficiency of capital 12. The state of long-term expectation 13. The general theory of the rate of interest 14. The classical theory of the rate of interest 15. The psychological and business incentives to liquidity 16. Sundry observations on the nature of capital 17. The essential properties of interest and money 18. The general theory of employment re-stated Part V. Money-wages and Prices: 19. Changes in money-wages 20. The employment function 21. The theory of prices Part VI. Short Notes Suggested by the General Theory: 22. Notes on the trade cycle 23. Notes on mercantilism, the usury laws, stamped money and theories of under-consumption 24. Concluding notes on the social philosophy towards which the general theory might lead.

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General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

Gregory Bateson was a philosopher, anthropologist, photographer, naturalist, and poet, as well as the husband and collaborator of Margaret Mead. With a new foreword by his daughter Mary Katherine Bateson, this classic anthology of his major work will continue to delight and inform generations of readers. "This collection amounts to a retrospective exhibition of a working life...Bateson has come to this position during a career that carried him not only into anthropology, for which he was first trained, but into psychiatry, genetics, and communication theory...He ...examines the nature of the mind, seeing it not as a nebulous something, somehow lodged somewhere in the body of each man, but as a network of interactions relating the individual with his society and his species and with the universe at large."--D. W. Harding, New York Review of Books "[Bateson's] view of the world, of science, of culture, and of man is vast and challenging. His efforts at synthesis are tantalizingly and cryptically suggestive...This is a book we should all read and ponder."--Roger Keesing, American Anthropologist Gregory Bateson (1904-1980) was the author of Naven and Mind and Nature.

https://systemika.g-i.cz/record/1027/files/Steps to an Ecology of Mind.pdf

Steps to an Ecology of Mind

Varieties of capitalism : the institutional foundations ofcomparative advantage

Research in experimental psychology suggests that, in violation of Bayes' rule, most people tend to "overreact" to unexpected and dramatic news events. This study of market efficiency investigates whether such behavior affects stock prices. The empirical evidence, based on CRSP monthly return data, is consistent with the overreaction hypothesis. Substantial weak form market inefficiencies are discovered. The results also shed new light on the January returns earned by prior "winners" and "losers." Portfolios of losers experience exceptionally large January returns as late as five years after portfolio formation. As ECONOMISTS INTERESTED IN both market behavior and the psychology of individual decision making, we have been struck by the similarity of two sets of empirical findings. Both classes of behavior can be characterized as displaying overreaction. This study was undertaken to investigate the possibility that these phenomena are related by more than just appearance. We begin by describing briefly the individual and market behavior that piqued our interest. The term overreaction carries with it an implicit comparison to some degree of reaction that is considered to be appropriate. What is an appropriate reaction? One class,,of tasks which have a well-established norm are probability revision problems for which Bayes' rule prescribes the correct reaction to new information. It has now been well-established that Bayes' rule is not an apt characterization of how individuals actually respond to new data (Kahneman et al. [14]). In revising their beliefs, individuals tend to overweight recent information and underweight prior (or base rate) data. People seem to make predictions according to a simple matching rule: "The predicted value is selected so that the standing of the case in the distribution of outcomes matches its standing in the distribution of impressions" (Kahneman and Tversky [14, p. 416]). This rule-of-thumb, an instance of what Kahneman and Tversky call the representativeness heuristic, violates the basic statistical principal that the extremeness of predictions must be moderated by considerations of predictability. Grether [12] has replicated this finding under incentive compatible conditions. There is also considerable evidence that the actual expectations of professional security analysts and economic forecasters display the same overreaction bias (for a review, see De Bondt [7]). One of the earliest observations about overreaction in markets was made by J. M. Keynes:"... day-to-day fluctuations in the profits of existing investments,

/pdf/does-the-stock-market-overreact-3jczd3xcx2.pdf

Does the Stock Market Overreact

The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

I. Comments on the four discussions in the previous issue of points in the General Theory, 209. — II. Certain definite points on which the writer diverges from previous theories, 212. — The theory of interest restated, 215. — Uncertainties and fluctuations of investment, 217. — III. Demand and Supply for output as a whole, 219. — The output of capital goods and of consumption, 221.

The General Theory of Employment

Part 1 Fundamental ideas: the meaning of probability - probability in relation to the theory of knowledge - the measurement of probabilities - the principle of indifference - other methods of determining probabilities - the weight of arguments - historical retrospect - the frequency theory of probability - the constructive theory of part 1 summarized. Part 2 Fundamental theorems: introductory - the theory of groups, with special reference to logical consistence, inference, and logical priority - the definitions and axioms of inference and probability - the fundamental theorems of probable inference - numerical measurement and approximation of probabilities - observations on the theorems of chapter 14 and their developments, including testimony - some problems in inverse probability, including averages. Part 3 Induction and analogy: introduction - the nature of argument by analogy - the value of multiplication of instances, or pure induction - the nature of inductive argument continued - the justification of these methods - some historical notes on induction - notes on part 3. Part 4 Some philosophical applications of probability: the meanings of objective chance, and of randomness - some problems arising out of the discussion of change - the application of probability to conduct. Part 5 The foundations of statistical inference: the nature of statistical inference - the law of great numbers - the use of a priori probabilities for the prediction of statistical frequency - the mathematical use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - the inversion of Bernoulli's theorem - the inductive use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - outline of a constructive theory.

http://www.fitelson.org/confirmation/keynes_treatise.pdf

A Treatise on Probability

A Treatise on Probability.

The Applied Theory of Money: Part I. Monetary Factors and their Fluctuations: 1. The applied theory of money 2. The proportion of savings deposits to cash deposits 3. The velocities of circulation 4. The ratio of bank money to reserve money 5. The activity of business Part II. The Rate of Investment and its Fluctuations: 6. Fluctuations in the rate of investment: i. Fixed capital 7. Fluctuations in the rate of investment: ii. Working capital 8. Fluctuations in the rate of investment: iii. Liquid capital 9. Historical illustrations Part III. The Management of Money: 10. The problem of the management of money 11. Methods of national management: i. The control of the member banks 12. Methods of national management: ii. The regulation of the central reserves 13. Problems of international management: i. The relations of central banks to one another 14. Problems of international management: ii. The gold standard 15. Problems of international management: iii. The problem of national autonomy 16. Methods of national management: iii. The control of the rate of investment 17. Problems of supernational national management.

John Maynard Keynes

Papers

The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

The General Theory of Employment

A Treatise on Probability

A Treatise on Probability.

A Treatise on Money