John McDonald

Bio: John McDonald is an academic researcher from Flinders University. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Inflation. The author has an hindex of 17, co-authored 85 publications receiving 1564 citations. Previous affiliations of John McDonald include University of South Australia.

Infant feeding practices and chronic child malnutrition in the Indian states of Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.

Abstract: As measured by degree of stunting, close to half of India’s children suffer from chronic malnutrition and about a quarter from severe chronic malnutrition. Data from the 1998–1999 National Family Health Survey (NFHS) are analysed to assess whether recommended infant feeding practices help to alleviate the prevalence of stunting. The evidence supports some recommended practices, including the advice that mother not squeeze the colostrum from her breasts, not use a feeding bottle with a nipple, exclusive breastfeeding for the first 4–6 months and feeding supplementary foods (solids and mushy foods) at about 7 months, and suggests that, for some children, better feeding practices could reduce the prevalence of severe stunting by up to 30%. The paper also examines a range of other issues related to stunting—whether medical supplementations and inoculations have an effect, whether mothers more actively involved in health decisions have less stunted children, and the links between stunting, diarrhoea and anaemia. An explanation is offered for the positive relationship between using oral rehydration salts and stunting.

A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births.

Abstract: The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed. Particular attention is given to the problem of transforming the time series to stationarity (and Gaussianity) and the properties of the forecasts are analyzed. Final form transfer function models linking births to females in the reproductive age groups are also constructed and a comparison of actual forecast performance using the various models is made. Long-run future forecasts are generated and compared with available projections based on the deterministic cohort model after which some policy implications of the analysis are considered.

Modeling Demographic Relationships: An Analysis of Forecast Functions for Australian Births

Abstract: The paper discusses the problem of modeling demographic variables for the purpose of forecasting. It is argued that theory rarely provides a complete dynamic specification for the model. Two empirical model selection procedures, a time series approach (Haugh and Box 1977 and Granger and Newbold 1977) and a sequential testing procedure (Hendry and Mizon 1978), are applied to suggest final-form forecasting equations for an Australian births series, first nuptial confinements. The suggested models are then assessed by comparing their post-sample forecast performance with that of univariate ARMA type models of confinements, which are regarded as approximations to the confinements final equation model. This modeling strategy is contrasted with the method used to construct the Australian government's IMPACT demographic module.

Modeling and forecasting U. S. mortality

Abstract: Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in the United States from 1990 to 2065. First, the logs of the age-specific death rates are modeled as a linear function of an unobserved period-specific intensity index, with parameters depending on age. This model is fit to the matrix of U.S. death rates, 1933 to 1987, using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method; it accounts for almost all the variance over time in age-specific death rates as a group. Whereas e 0 has risen at a decreasing rate over the century and has decreasing variability, k(t) declines at a roughly constant rate and has roughly constant variability, facilitating forecasting. k(t), which indexes the intensity of mortality, is next modeled as a time series (specifically, a random walk with drift) and forecast. The method performs very well on within-sample forecasts, and the forecasts are insensitive to reductions in the length of the base period from 90 to 30 ...

A Global Perspective: Reframing the History of Health, Medicine, and Disease.

Abstract: The emergence of global history has been one of the more notable features of academic history over the past three decades. Although historians of disease were among the pioneers of one of its earlier incarnations—world history—the recent “global turn” has made relatively little impact on histories of health, disease, and medicine. Most continue to be framed by familiar entities such as the colony or nation-state or are confined to particular medical “traditions.” This article aims to show what can be gained from taking a broader perspective. Its purpose is not to replace other ways of seeing or to write a new “grand narrative” but to show how transnational and transimperial approaches are vital to understanding some of the key issues with which historians of health, disease, and medicine are concerned. Moving on from an analysis of earlier periods of integration, the article offers some reflections on our own era of globalization and on the emerging field of global health.

Stature and the Standard of Living

Abstract: Research on the standard of living now emphasizes alternatives or supplements to the national income accounts. This paper reviews the results of two decades of research using stature as a measure of health aspects of human welfare. After comparing and contrasting stature with per capita income, I consider height patterns discovered by economic historians that challenge traditional beliefs about the past, including long-term trends, cycles in heights, and the dreadfully small stature of slave children that was followed by catch-up growth. The paper concludes with comparisons to work in development economics and suggestions for research.