John Monahan

Bio: John Monahan is an academic researcher from University of Virginia. The author has contributed to research in topics: Poison control & Risk assessment. The author has an hindex of 72, co-authored 313 publications receiving 21833 citations. Previous affiliations of John Monahan include University of California, San Francisco & City University of New York.

Rates of unemployment and incidence of police-initiated examinations for involuntary hospitalization in Florida.

Abstract: Objective: This study tested the hypothesis that contraction of regional economies affects the incidence of involuntary admissions to psychiatric emergency services by reducing community tolerance for persons perceived as threatening to others. Methods: This hypothesis was tested with time-series analyses of the relationship between initial claims for unemployment in Florida between July 4, 1999, and June 28, 2003, and the weekly number of men and women presented by police to be examined for involuntary psychiatric hospitalization because of danger to others. The analyses controlled for admissions presented by mental health professionals because of danger to others and for admissions presented by police because of neglect or disability. Results: When the analyses controlled for autocorrelation and other covariates, claims for unemployment insurance were significantly associated with the number of men presented by police for danger to others. During the study period, police presented 5,897 men for examination because of danger to others. Increased unemployment claims were associated with approximately 309 more men being presented for examination than expected from prior presentation rates and from the number presented by mental health professionals for danger to others and by police for neglect or disability. No such association was found for women. Conclusions: Consistent with theory, this study found that presentations for involuntary admission to psychiatric services increased after contractions in the labor market. Combining the methods of this study with econometric forecasting may allow providers to anticipate better the need for psychiatric services. (Psychiatric Services 57:1435–1439, 2006)

Violent behavior and gender of Swedish psychiatric patients: a prospective clinical study.

Abstract: ObjectiveThis study was designed to investigate the base rate of violent behavior, the predictive validity of the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) software, and specific risk factors for violence among nonforensically involved psychiatric patients in Sweden.MethodsOn discharge from two psychiatric hospitals in Stockholm, 331 patients were interviewed. Telephone interviews with the patients and supportive others, as well as data from a national criminal register, were used to measure violent behavior 20 weeks after discharge. After the baseline interview, patients were assigned to different risk groups by the COVR software. Predicted risk was compared with the occurrence of actual acts of violence during the follow-up.ResultsGender differences in base rates of violent behavior among the general psychiatric population were not found during the 20 weeks of follow-up after discharge. Violent behavior was significantly predicted by young age of males and by level of anger, violent thoughts, and victimiza...

Judicial Reliance on Risk Assessment in Sentencing Drug and Property Offenders: A Test of the Treatment Resource Hypothesis:

Abstract: For almost two decades, Virginia has used risk assessment to justify “alternative” nonprison sentences for eligible drug and property offenders. In Study 1, we examined how frequently alternative s...

Mentally Disordered Sex Offenders

Abstract: “Sex,” Havelock Ellis (1936) once wrote, “is the central problem of life.” While it may not be the central problem, it is surely a major problem of law as well. Since Michigan enacted the first “sex psychopath” statute in 1937, the diversion from the criminal justice system to the mental health system of those who have committed a sexual offense and are believed to be mentally disordered has been fraught with controversy. Conservatives have charged that the indeterminate confinement that accompanies such diversion results in offenders being released “too soon,” while liberals have argued that it results in a confinement that is “too long.” A recent legislative hearing in California, the state with the largest program for mentally disordered sex offenders (MDSOs), heard a staff psychiatrist at an MDSO facility testify that “What I feel quite often is this guy ought to be in the slammer.” When a legislator stated that “any sex offender is mentally messed up, so let’s lock the SOBs up and get on with the business of the people of California,” the hearing room resounded in applause (Luther, 1981, p. 22).1 When the Wisconsin legislature considered whether to abolish that state’s Sex Crimes Act in 1979 not a single witness could be found to defend the statute. The repeal was passed unanimously by both houses of the legislature and promptly signed by the governor (Ransley, 1980).

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

Abstract: A review is presented of the book “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment,” edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman.

Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?

Abstract: Much research in the last two decades has demon- strated that human responses deviate from the performance deemed normative according to various models of decision mak- ing and rational judgment (e.g., the basic axioms of utility theory). This gap between the normative and the descriptive can be inter- preted as indicating systematic irrationalities in human cognition. However, four alternative interpretations preserve the assumption that human behavior and cognition is largely rational. These posit that the gap is due to (1) performance errors, (2) computational limitations, (3) the wrong norm being applied by the experi- menter, and (4) a different construal of the task by the subject. In the debates about the viability of these alternative explanations, attention has been focused too narrowly on the modal response. In a series of experiments involving most of the classic tasks in the heuristics and biases literature, we have examined the implica- tions of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap. Performance er- rors are a minor factor in the gap; computational limitations un- derlie non-normative responding on several tasks, particularly those that involve some type of cognitive decontextualization. Un- expected patterns of covariance can suggest when the wrong norm is being applied to a task or when an alternative construal of the task should be considered appropriate.

Peer relations and later personal adjustment: Are low-accepted children at risk?

Abstract: In this review, we examine the oft-made claim that peer-relationship difficulties in childhood predict serious adjustment problems in later life. The article begins with a framework for conceptualizing and assessing children's peer difficulties and with a discussion of conceptual and methodological issues in longitudinal risk research. Following this, three indexes of problematic peer relationships (acceptance, aggressiveness, and shyness/withdrawal) are evaluated as predictors of three later outcomes (dropping out of school, criminality, and psychcpathology). The relation between peer difficulties and later maladjustment is examined in terms of both the consistency and strength of prediction. A review and analysis of the literature indicates general support for the hypothesis that children with poor peer adjustment are at risk for later life difficulties. Support is clearest for the outcomes of dropping out and criminality. It is also clearest for low acceptance and aggressiveness as predictors, whereas a link between shyness/withdrawal and later maladjustment has not yet been adequately tested. The article concludes with a critical discussion of the implicit models that have guided past research in this area and a set of recommendations for the next generation of research on the risk

Risk As Analysis and Risk As Feelings: Some Thoughts About Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality

Abstract: Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The analytic system uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The experiential system is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it's safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.