https://ccrma.stanford.edu/workshops/mir2009/references/ROCintro.pdf

An introduction to ROC analysis

A review is presented of the book “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment,” edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman.

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

Much research in the last two decades has demon- strated that human responses deviate from the performance deemed normative according to various models of decision mak- ing and rational judgment (e.g., the basic axioms of utility theory). This gap between the normative and the descriptive can be inter- preted as indicating systematic irrationalities in human cognition. However, four alternative interpretations preserve the assumption that human behavior and cognition is largely rational. These posit that the gap is due to (1) performance errors, (2) computational limitations, (3) the wrong norm being applied by the experi- menter, and (4) a different construal of the task by the subject. In the debates about the viability of these alternative explanations, attention has been focused too narrowly on the modal response. In a series of experiments involving most of the classic tasks in the heuristics and biases literature, we have examined the implica- tions of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap. Performance er- rors are a minor factor in the gap; computational limitations un- derlie non-normative responding on several tasks, particularly those that involve some type of cognitive decontextualization. Un- expected patterns of covariance can suggest when the wrong norm is being applied to a task or when an alternative construal of the task should be considered appropriate.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0140525X00003435

Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?

In this review, we examine the oft-made claim that peer-relationship difficulties in childhood predict serious adjustment problems in later life. The article begins with a framework for conceptualizing and assessing children's peer difficulties and with a discussion of conceptual and methodological issues in longitudinal risk research. Following this, three indexes of problematic peer relationships (acceptance, aggressiveness, and shyness/withdrawal) are evaluated as predictors of three later outcomes (dropping out of school, criminality, and psychcpathology). The relation between peer difficulties and later maladjustment is examined in terms of both the consistency and strength of prediction. A review and analysis of the literature indicates general support for the hypothesis that children with poor peer adjustment are at risk for later life difficulties. Support is clearest for the outcomes of dropping out and criminality. It is also clearest for low acceptance and aggressiveness as predictors, whereas a link between shyness/withdrawal and later maladjustment has not yet been adequately tested. The article concludes with a critical discussion of the implicit models that have guided past research in this area and a set of recommendations for the next generation of research on the risk

Peer relations and later personal adjustment: Are low-accepted children at risk?

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The analytic system uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The experiential system is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it's safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=931686

Risk As Analysis and Risk As Feelings: Some Thoughts About Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality

List of contributors. Coercion and mental health services: introduction and overview (J.P. Morrissey, J. Monahan). Innovative US Studies. Coercion in the provision of mental health services: the Macarthur studies (J. Monahan et al.). Assessing the operation of a New York City program for involuntary outpatient commitment (H.J. Steadman et al.). Measuring coercion under involuntary outpatient commitment: initial findings from a randomized controlled trial (M.B. Swartz et al.). Conceptual, Measurement, and Outcome Issues - Nordic and American Views. Coercion in psychiatry: an analytical overview (A. Syse). Clients' perception of coercion: a research perspective (G. Hoyer). Methodological issues in measuring coercion in psychiatric treatment (R. Kaltiala-Heino). The effects of coerced psychiatric hospitalization and treatment (R. Nicholson). Ethical considerations: American and British Perspectives. Ethical issues on coercion research in mental health systems (J. Allen). Broadening the agenda of coercion research: addressing the sociopolitical context of risk, violence, and mental disorder (A. Rogers). Bibliographic Resources. Tracing the development of outpatient commitment: an annotated bibliography (D.L. Dennis).

Coercion in Mental Health Services-International Perspectives

Experts often seek to apply social science to the facts of a particular case. Sometimes experts link social science findings to cases using only their expert judgment, and other times experts conduct case-specific research using social science principles and methods to produce case-specific evidence. This Article argues against expert judgment as the means of linking general social science to specific cases, and for the use of methodologically rigorous case-specific research to produce "social facts, " or case-specific evidence derived from social science principles. We explain the many ways that social fact studies can be conducted to yield reliable case-specific opinions, and we dispel the view that litigation poses insurmountable barriers to the conduct of casespecific empirical research. Social fact studies are feasible for both plaintiffs and defendants, and they provide much sounder conclusions about the relevance of social science to a litigated case than does linkage via expert judgment.

/pdf/beyond-context-social-facts-as-case-specific-evidence-3ie1dat2o7.pdf

Beyond context: social facts as case-specific evidence

Prediction of dangerousness as a function of its perceived consequences

purer stuff is unrealistic. The concept of a voucher system for the purchase of services has its greatest potential in community correction, where offenders are, so to speak, in partnership with correctional agents. My objection to the Greenberg article is its subtle concept that offenders can do a better job alone in the gearing of services to needs and that correctional agents would be dysfunctional in this task. Progress in correction will come via a cooperative arrangement between offenders and correctional agents. A naive article like Greenberg’s is dangerous; it separates the two parties that have a vested interest in correction.

Dangerous Offenders A Critique of Kozol et al. April 6, 1973 TO THE EDITOR

There is increasing awareness of the sensitive and crucial role of the law enforcement officer as a community caretaker. Rigorous efforts to define criteria of adequate performance and to select men who can meet these criteria are called for. In this study applicants for a law enforcement agency were subjected to an extensive psychological test battery and a psychiatric interview. The results were matched against subsequent performance as law enforcement officers. The data show that although some psychological factors are related to failure on the job, intellectual factors are the best predictors of advancement in the department, and the psychiatric interview did not relate to any of the performance criteria. Development of performance criteria was a problem here as elsewhere.

John Monahan

Papers

Coercion in Mental Health Services-International Perspectives

Beyond context: social facts as case-specific evidence

Prediction of dangerousness as a function of its perceived consequences

Dangerous Offenders A Critique of Kozol et al. April 6, 1973 TO THE EDITOR

The quality control of community caretakers: a study of mental health screening in a sheriff's department.