This paper presents a fully specified model of long-run growth in which knowledge is assumed to be an input in production that has increasing marginal productivity. It is essentially a competitive equilibrium model with endogenous technological change. In contrast to models based on diminishing returns, growth rates can be increasing over time, the effects of small disturbances can be amplified by the actions of private agents, and large countries may always grow faster than small countries. Long-run evidence is offered in support of the empirical relevance of these possibilities.

/pdf/increasing-returns-and-long-run-growth-1wijc940aq.pdf

Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth

This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum simulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 20 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

/pdf/discrete-choice-methods-with-simulation-l1x4cghjtt.pdf

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice.

Policy makers view public sector-sponsored employment and training programs and other active labor market policies as tools for integrating the unemployed and economically disadvantaged into the work force. Few public sector programs have received such intensive scrutiny, and been subjected to so many different evaluation strategies. This chapter examines the impacts of active labor market policies, such as job training, job search assistance, and job subsidies, and the methods used to evaluate their effectiveness. Previous evaluations of policies in OECD countries indicate that these programs usually have at best a modest impact on participants’ labor market prospects. But at the same time, they also indicate that there is considerable heterogeneity in the impact of these programs. For some groups, a compelling case can be made that these policies generate high rates of return, while for other groups these policies have had no impact and may have been harmful. Our discussion of the methods used to evaluate these policies has more general interest. We believe that the same issues arise generally in the social sciences and are no easier to address elsewhere. As a result, a major focus of this chapter is on the methodological lessons learned from evaluating these programs. One of the most important of these lessons is that there is no inherent method of choice for conducting program evaluations. The choice between experimental and non-experimental methods or among alternative econometric estimators should be guided by the underlying economic models, the available data, and the questions being addressed. Too much emphasis has been placed on formulating alternative econometric methods for correcting for selection bias and too little given to the quality of the underlying data. Although it is expensive, obtaining better data is the only way to solve the evaluation problem in a convincing way. However, better data are not synonymous with social experiments. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market Programs

Preface MATRICES: Basic Properties of Vectors and Matrices Kronecker Products, the Vec-Operator and the Moore- Penrose Inverse Miscellaneous Matrix Results DIFFERENTIALS: THE THEORY: Mathematical Preliminaries Differentials and Differentiability The Second Differential Static Optimization DIFFERENTIALS: THE PRACTICE: Some Important Differentials First- Order Differentials and Jacobian Matrices Second-Order Differentials and Hessian Matrices INEQUALITIES: Inequalities THE LINEAR MODEL: Statistical Preliminaries The Linear Regression Model Further Topics in the Linear Model APPLICATIONS TO MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION: Maximum Likelihood Estimation Simultaneous Equations Topics in Psychometrics Subject Index Bibliography.

Matrix Differential Calculus with Applications in Statistics and Econometrics

The Theory of Economic Dynamics

A Survey of the Theory of International Trade: Part 2, The Neo-Classical Theory

I Introduction, 347 — II Production functions and producer equilibrium, 352 — III Demand functions and supply of labor, 356 — IV Equilibrium under laissez-faire, 358 — V Ideal output, 362 — VI Taxes, bounties, and optimality rules, 366 — VII Analysis in terms of consumers' surplus, 373 — VIII Dynamic stability of the adjustment process, 381

John S. Chipman

Papers

The Theory of Economic Dynamics

A Survey of the Theory of International Trade: Part 2, The Neo-Classical Theory

External Economies of Scale and Competitive Equilibrium

Preferences, Utility, and Demand.

The Foundations of Utility