scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Author

John Whitley

Bio: John Whitley is an academic researcher from Institute for Defense Analyses. The author has contributed to research in topics: Abortion & Poison control. The author has an hindex of 9, co-authored 12 publications receiving 348 citations. Previous affiliations of John Whitley include University of Adelaide & Bank of England.
Topics: Abortion, Poison control, Debt, Payment, Market power

Papers
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a time series approach to model two of the key components of aggregate UK household arrears: those on mortgages and credit cards, and found that both income and interest repayments are important factors in explaining both forms of ARs.
Abstract: Household arrears on payment obligations are one of the most direct measures of household sector financial stress. This paper uses a time series approach to model two of the key components of aggregate UK household arrears: those on mortgages and credit cards. Mortgages are the main component of secured borrowing by households and credit cards are a key element in unsecured borrowing. Recent data show that both secured and unsecured debt have risen substantially, both absolutely and as a proportion of income since 1997. Unsecured debt has increased more rapidly over this period and so has become more important in overall household debt. During this period of rapid debt accumulation, the proportion of mortgage loans in arrears has fallen but the value of credit card arrears relative to the value of active card balances has risen. The paper explains these differences in the behaviour of arrears by reference to the underlying driving forces identified in previous empirical work. In particular the level of housing equity appears to be more important in explaining mortgage arrears, and the role of supply factors is highlighted for credit card arrears. Although the estimated models confirm that both income and interest repayments (and therefore income gearing) are important factors in explaining both forms of arrears, unemployment only plays an additional role for mortgage arrears. Joint testing of the two models suggests a role for the ratio of the value of the mortgage loan to the value of housing equity for both kinds of arrears, but with opposing effects. In the case of mortgage arrears this might reflect the lenders' perceptions of the quality of the borrower. Credit card arrears appear to contain some information about future mortgage arrears although the reverse does not hold. Both equations adjust relatively quickly to any shocks, typically in around two years. The significance of the income-gearing term for both types of arrears underlines the importance of the path of interest rates for the financial position of the UK household sector.

78 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Maltz and Targonski as discussed by the authors provided an important service by disaggregating the county-level data to help researchers examine measurement errors in the county level data, but their conclusion that county level crime data, as they are currently constituted, should not be used, especially in policy studies is not justified.
Abstract: Maltz and Targonski (2002) have provided an important service by disaggregating the county level data to help researchers examine measurement errors in the county level data, but their conclusion that county-level crime data, as they are currently constituted, should not be used, especially in policy studies is not justified. All data has measurement error, presumably even their measures of this error. Unfortunately, however, Maltz and Targonski provide no systematic test for how bad the data are. Their graphs obscure both the small number of counties affected, that these are rural counties, and that just because some of the population in a county is not represented in calculating the crime rate, that is not the same thing as showing that the reported number is in error. Nor do they provide evidence for the more important issue of whether there is a systematic bias in the data. The evidence provided here indicates right-to-carry laws continue to produce substantial reductions in violent crime rates when states with the greatest measurement error are excluded. In fact, restricting the sample results in somewhat larger reductions in murders and robberies, but smaller reductions in aggravated assaults.

61 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors find no support that safe-storage laws reduce either juvenile accidental gun deaths or suicides, and instead, these storage requirements appear to impair people's ability to use guns defensively.
Abstract: It is frequently assumed that safe‐storage gun laws reduce accidental gun deaths and total suicides, while the possible impact on crime rates is ignored. We find no support that safe‐storage laws reduce either juvenile accidental gun deaths or suicides. Instead, these storage requirements appear to impair people’s ability to use guns defensively. Because accidental shooters also tend to be the ones most likely to violate the new law, safe‐storage laws increase violent and property crimes against law‐abiding citizens with no observable offsetting benefit in terms of reduced accidents or suicides.

48 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors find evidence that legalizing abortion increased murder rates by around about 5 to 7 percent and that the cohorts who are committing crime had been born before or after abortion was legal.
Abstract: Abortion may prevent the birth of "unwanted" children, who would have relatively small investments in human capital and a higher probability of crime On the other hand, some research suggests that legalizing abortion increases out-of-wedlock births and single parent families, which implies the opposite impact on investments in human capital and thus crime The question is: what is the net impact? We find evidence that legalizing abortion increased murder rates by around about 05 to 7 percent Previous estimates are shown to suffer from not directly linking the cohorts who are committing crime with whether they had been born before or after abortion was legal

39 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Lott et al. as mentioned in this paper found evidence that legalizing abortion increased murder rates by around about 0.5 to 7 percent, which implies the opposite impact on investments in human capital and thus crime.
Abstract: Abortion may prevent the birth of "unwanted" children, who would have relatively small investments in human capital and a higher probability of crime. On the other hand, some research suggests that legalizing abortion increases out-of-wedlock births and single parent families, which implies the opposite impact on investments in human capital and thus crime. The question is: what is the net impact? We find evidence that legalizing abortion increased murder rates by around about 0.5 to 7 percent. Previous estimates are shown to suffer from not directly linking the cohorts who are committing crime with whether they had been born before or after abortion was legal. Lott, John R. and Whitley, John E., Abortion and Crime: Unwanted Children and Out-of-Wedlock Births (April 30, 2001). Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 254. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=270126 or doi:10.2139/ssrn.270126

35 citations


Cited by
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: For example, this paper reviewed a wide variety of possible explanations for these changes: demography, fertility and abortion legalization, economic prosperity, increased incarceration of offenders, increased agents of social intervention, changing social norms and practices, the dissipation of the social changes from the 1960s, and psychiatric pharmacology.
Abstract: Various forms of child maltreatment and child victimization declined as much as 40‐70% from 1993 until 2004, including sexual abuse, physical abuse, sexual assault, homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, and larceny. Other child welfare indicators also improved during the same period, including teen pregnancy, teen suicide, and children living in poverty. This article reviews a wide variety of possible explanations for these changes: demography, fertility and abortion legalization, economic prosperity, increased incarceration of offenders, increased agents of social intervention, changing social norms and practices, the dissipation of the social changes from the 1960s, and psychiatric pharmacology. Multiple factors probably contributed. In particular, economic prosperity, increasing agents of social intervention, and psychiatric pharmacology have advantages over some of the other explanations in accounting for the breadth and timing of the improvements. The worrisome stories about crimes against children that regularly fill the media have unfortunately obscured some more positive news from the statistical reports on these same offenses. Child victimization of various types has been declining since the early 1990s, in some cases declining dramatically. Facts about the Decline

388 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate hedonic price functions for premium wine from Australia and New Zealand, differentiating implicit prices for sensory quality ratings, wine varieties and regional as well as winery brand reputations over the vintages 1992-2000.
Abstract: We estimate hedonic price functions for premium wine from Australia and New Zealand, differentiating implicit prices for sensory quality ratings, wine varieties and regional as well as winery brand reputations over the vintages 1992-2000. The results show regional reputations have become increasingly differentiated through time (although less so for New Zealand). In particular, cool-climate regions are becoming increasingly preferred over other regions in Australia. In each country, price premia associated with both James Halliday's and Winestate magazine's sensory quality ratings, and with Halliday's winery ratings and classic wine designations, are highly significant.

307 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyse household financial fragility in a sample of euro area countries with the aim to shed some light on the nature of the large debt increase accumulated in recent years.
Abstract: Sound household financial conditions are relevant for both financial and monetary stability. Therefore, we analyse household financial fragility in a sample of euro area countries with the aim to shed some light on the nature of the large debt increase accumulated in recent years. We focus on household arrears on payment obligations, which are one of the most direct measures of financial stress of the sector. The probability of falling into arrears is derived from a life-cycle type of model and is investigated empirically using a cross-section and time series approach. We analyse cointegration and model arrears within an errorcorrection framework. The results suggest that the financial conditions of households might become more vulnerable to adverse shocks in their income and wealth.

293 citations

Book
01 Jan 1996

268 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors demonstrate how the introduction of liability-side feedbacks affects the properties of a quantitative model of systemic risk, known as RAMSI, based on detailed balance sheets for UK banks and encompasses macro-credit risk, interest and non-interest income risk, network interactions, and feedback effects.
Abstract: We demonstrate how the introduction of liability-side feedbacks affects the properties of a quantitative model of systemic risk. The model is known as RAMSI and is still in its development phase. It is based on detailed balance sheets for UK banks and encompasses macro-credit risk, interest and non-interest income risk, network interactions, and feedback effects. Funding liquidity risk is introduced by allowing for rating downgrades and incorporating a simple framework in which concerns over solvency, funding profiles and confidence may trigger the outright closure of funding markets to particular institutions. In presenting results, we focus on aggregate distributions and analysis of a scenario in which large losses at some banks can be exacerbated by liability-side feedbacks, leading to system-wide instability.

206 citations