Jonathan M. Waters

Bio: Jonathan M. Waters is an academic researcher from University of Otago. The author has contributed to research in topics: Biological dispersal & Population. The author has an hindex of 52, co-authored 202 publications receiving 8158 citations. Previous affiliations of Jonathan M. Waters include University of Tasmania & Virginia Commonwealth University.

Long-distance dispersal: A framework for hypothesis testing

Abstract: Tests of hypotheses about the biogeographical consequences of long-distance dispersal have long eluded biologists, largely because of the rarity and presumed unpredictability of such events. Here, we examine data for terrestrial (including littoral) organisms in the Pacific to show that knowledge of dispersal by wind, birds and oceanic drift or rafting, coupled with information about the natural environment and biology of the organisms, can be used to generate broad biogeographic predictions. We then examine the predictions in the context of the origin, frequency of arrival and location of establishment of dispersed organisms, as well as subsequent patterns of endemism and diversification on remote islands. The predicted patterns are being increasingly supported by phylogenetic data for both terrestrial and littoral organisms.

Founder takes all: density-dependent processes structure biodiversity

Abstract: Density-dependent processes play a key role in the spatial structuring of biodiversity. Specifically, interrelated demographic processes, such as gene surfing, high-density blocking, and competitive exclusion, can generate striking geographic contrasts in the distributions of genes and species. Here, we propose that well-studied evolutionary and ecological biogeographic patterns of postglacial recolonization, progressive island colonization, microbial sectoring, and even the 'Out of Africa' pattern of human expansion, are fundamentally similar, underpinned by a 'founder takes all' density-dependent principle. Additionally, we hypothesize that older historic constraints of density-dependent processes are seen today in the dramatic biogeographic shifts that occur in response to human-mediated extinction events, whereby surviving lineages rapidly expand their ranges to replace extinct sister taxa.

Kelp genes reveal effects of subantarctic sea ice during the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract: The end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) dramatically reshaped temperate ecosystems, with many species moving poleward as temperatures rose and ice receded. Whereas reinvading terrestrial taxa tracked melting glaciers, marine biota recolonized ocean habitats freed by retreating sea ice. The extent of sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere during the LGM has, however, yet to be fully resolved, with most palaeogeographic studies suggesting only minimal or patchy ice cover in subantarctic waters. Here, through population genetic analyses of the widespread Southern Bull Kelp (Durvillaea antarctica), we present evidence for persistent ice scour affecting subantarctic islands during the LGM. Using mitochondrial and chloroplast genetic markers (COI; rbcL) to genetically characterize some 300 kelp samples from 45 Southern Ocean localities, we reveal a remarkable pattern of recent recolonization in the subantarctic. Specifically, in contrast to the marked phylogeographic structure observed across coastal New Zealand and Chile (10- to 100-km scales), subantarctic samples show striking genetic homogeneity over vast distances (10,000-km scales), with a single widespread haplotype observed for each marker. From these results, we suggest that sea ice expanded further and ice scour during the LGM impacted shallow-water subantarctic marine ecosystems more extensively than previously suggested.

Geological Dates and Molecular Rates: Fish DNA Sheds Light on Time Dependency

Abstract: Knowledge of DNA evolution is central to our understanding of biological history, but how fast does DNA change? Previously, pedigree and ancient DNA studies--focusing on evolution in the short term--have yielded molecular rate estimates substantially faster than those based on deeper phylogenies. It has recently been suggested that short-term, elevated molecular rates decay exponentially over 1-2 Myr to long-term, phylogenetic rates, termed "time dependency of molecular rates." This transition has potential to confound molecular inferences of demographic parameters and dating of many important evolutionary events. Here, we employ a novel approach--geologically dated changes in river drainages and isolation of fish populations--to document rates of mitochondrial DNA change over a range of temporal scales. This method utilizes precise spatiotemporal disruptions of linear freshwater systems and hence avoids many of the limitations associated with typical DNA calibration methods involving fossil data or island formation. Studies of freshwater-limited fishes across the South Island of New Zealand have revealed that genetic relationships reflect past, rather than present, drainage connections. Here, we use this link between drainage geology and genetics to calibrate rates of molecular evolution across nine events ranging in age from 0.007 Myr (Holocene) to 5.0 Myr (Pliocene). Molecular rates of change in galaxiid fishes from calibration points younger than 200 kyr were faster than those based on older calibration points. This study provides conclusive evidence of time dependency in molecular rates as it is based on a robust calibration system that was applied to closely related taxa, and analyzed using a consistent and rigorous methodology. The time dependency observed here appears short-lived relative to previous suggestions (1-2 Myr), which has bearing on the accuracy of molecular inferences drawn from processes operating within the Quaternary and mechanisms invoked to explain the decay of rates with time.

Oceanic rafting by a coastal community

Abstract: Oceanic rafting is thought to play a fundamental role in assembling the biological communities of isolated coastal ecosystems. Direct observations of this key ecological and evolutionary process are, however, critically lacking. The importance of macroalgal rafting as a dispersal mechanism has remained uncertain, largely owing to lack of knowledge about the capacity of fauna to survive long voyages at sea and successfully make landfall and establish. Here, we directly document the rafting of a diverse assemblage of intertidal organisms across several hundred kilometres of open ocean, from the subantarctic to mainland New Zealand. Multispecies analyses using phylogeographic and ecological data indicate that 10 epifaunal invertebrate species rafted on six large bull kelp specimens for several weeks from the subantarctic Auckland and/or Snares Islands to the Otago coast of New Zealand, a minimum distance of some 400–600 km. These genetic data are the first to demonstrate that passive rafting can enable simultaneous trans-oceanic transport and landfall of numerous coastal taxa.

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Abstract: Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

Model Selection in Historical Biogeography Reveals that Founder-Event Speciation Is a Crucial Process in Island Clades

Abstract: Founder-event speciation, where a rare jump dispersal event founds a new genetically isolated lineage, has long been considered crucial by many historical biogeographers, but its importance is disputed within the vicariance school. Probabilistic modeling of geographic range evolution creates the potential to test different biogeographical models against data using standard statistical model choice procedures, as long as multiple models are available. I re-implement the Dispersal-Extinction-Cladogenesis (DEC) model of LAGRANGE in the R package BioGeoBEARS, and modify it to create a new model, DEC+J, which adds founder-event speciation, the importance of which is governed by a new free parameter, j. The identifiability of DEC and DEC+J is tested on data sets simulated under a wide range of macroevolutionary models where geography evolves jointly with lineage birth/death events. The results confirm that DEC and DEC+J are identifiable even though these models ignore the fact that molecular phylogenies are missing many cladogenesis and extinction events. The simulations also indicate that DEC will have substantially increased errors in ancestral range estimation and parameter inference when the true model includes +J. DEC and DEC+J are compared on 13 empirical data sets drawn from studies of island clades. Likelihood-ratio tests indicate that all clades reject DEC, and AICc model weights show large to overwhelming support for DEC+J, for the first time verifying the importance of founder-event speciation in island clades via statistical model choice. Under DEC+J, ancestral nodes are usually estimated to have ranges occupying only one island, rather than the widespread ancestors often favored by DEC. These results indicate that the assumptions of historical biogeography models can have large impacts on inference and require testing and comparison with statistical methods. (BioGeoBEARS; cladogenesis; extinction; founder-event speciation; GeoSSE; historical biogeography; jump dispersal; LAGRANGE.)