Joost C. F. de Winter

Bio: Joost C. F. de Winter is an academic researcher from Delft University of Technology. The author has contributed to research in topics: Driving simulator & Poison control. The author has an hindex of 36, co-authored 111 publications receiving 4622 citations.

Public Opinion on Automated Driving: Results of an International Questionnaire Among 5,000 Respondents

Abstract: This study investigated user acceptance, worries, and willingness to buy partially, highly, and fully automated vehicles. By means of a 63-question Internet-based survey, we collected 5,000 responses from 109 countries (40 countries with at least 25 respondents). We determined cross-national differences, and assessed correlations with personal variables, such as age, gender, and personality traits as measured with a short version of the Big Five Inventory. Results showed that respondents, on average, found manual driving the most enjoyable mode of driving. Responses were diverse: 22% of the respondents did not want to pay more than $0 for a fully automated driving system, whereas 5% indicated they would be willing to pay more than $30,000 for it, and 33% indicated that fully automated driving would be highly enjoyable. 69% of respondents estimated that fully automated driving will reach a 50% market share between now and 2050. Respondents were found to be most concerned about software hacking/misuse, and were also concerned about legal issues and safety. More neurotic people were slightly less comfortable about data transmitting, whereas agreeable persons were slightly more comfortable with that. The more developed countries (in terms of accident statistics, education, and income) were less comfortable with their vehicle transmitting data, with cross-national correlations between ρ= -0.80 and ρ= -0.90. The present results indicate the major areas of promise and concern among the international public, and could be useful for vehicle developers and other stakeholders.

Five-Point Likert Items: t test versus Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon

Abstract: Likert questionnaires are widely used in survey research, but it is unclear whether the item data should be investigated by means of parametric or nonparametric procedures. This study compared the Type I and II error rates of the t test versus the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon (MWW) for five-point Likert items. Fourteen population distributions were defined and pairs of samples were drawn from the populations and submitted to the t test and the t test on ranks, which yields the same results as MWW. The results showed that the two tests had equivalent power for most of the pairs. MWW had a power advantage when one of the samples was drawn from a skewed or peaked distribution. Strong power differences between the t test and MWW occurred when one of the samples was drawn from a multimodal distribution. Notably, the Type I error rate of both methods was never more than 3% above the nominal rate of 5%, even not when sample sizes were highly unequal. In conclusion, for five-point Likert items, the t test and MWW generally have similar power, and researchers do not have to worry about finding a difference whilst there is none in the population.

Effects of adaptive cruise control and highly automated driving on workload and situation awareness: A review of the empirical evidence

Abstract: Adaptive cruise control (ACC), a driver assistance system that controls longitudinal motion, has been introduced in consumer cars in 1995. A next milestone is highly automated driving (HAD), a system that automates both longitudinal and lateral motion. We investigated the effects of ACC and HAD on drivers' workload and situation awareness through a meta-analysis and narrative review of simulator and on-road studies. Based on a total of 32 studies, the unweighted mean self-reported workload was 43.5% for manual driving, 38.6% for ACC driving, and 22.7% for HAD (0% = minimum, 100 = maximum on the NASA Task Load Index or Rating Scale Mental Effort). Based on 12 studies, the number of tasks completed on an in-vehicle display relative to manual driving (100%) was 112% for ACC and 261% for HAD. Drivers of a highly automated car, and to a lesser extent ACC drivers, are likely to pick up tasks that are unrelated to driving. Both ACC and HAD can result in improved situation awareness compared to manual driving if drivers are motivated or instructed to detect objects in the environment. However, if drivers are engaged in non-driving tasks, situation awareness deteriorates for ACC and HAD compared to manual driving. The results of this review are consistent with the hypothesis that, from a Human Factors perspective, HAD is markedly different from ACC driving, because the driver of a highly automated car has the possibility, for better or worse, to divert attention to secondary tasks, whereas an ACC driver still has to attend to the roadway.

Comparing the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients across distributions and sample sizes: A tutorial using simulations and empirical data.

Abstract: The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (rp) and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient (rs) are widely used in psychological research. We compare rp and rs on 3 criteria: variability, bias with respect to the population value, and robustness to an outlier. Using simulations across low (N = 5) to high (N = 1,000) sample sizes we show that, for normally distributed variables, rp and rs have similar expected values but rs is more variable, especially when the correlation is strong. However, when the variables have high kurtosis, rp is more variable than rs. Next, we conducted a sampling study of a psychometric dataset featuring symmetrically distributed data with light tails, and of 2 Likert-type survey datasets, 1 with light-tailed and the other with heavy-tailed distributions. Consistent with the simulations, rp had lower variability than rs in the psychometric dataset. In the survey datasets with heavy-tailed variables in particular, rs had lower variability than rp, and often corresponded more accurately to the population Pearson correlation coefficient (Rp) than rp did. The simulations and the sampling studies showed that variability in terms of standard deviations can be reduced by about 20% by choosing rs instead of rp. In comparison, increasing the sample size by a factor of 2 results in a 41% reduction of the standard deviations of rs and rp. In conclusion, rp is suitable for light-tailed distributions, whereas rs is preferable when variables feature heavy-tailed distributions or when outliers are present, as is often the case in psychological research.

Determinants of take-over time from automated driving : A meta-analysis of 129 studies

Abstract: An important question in automated driving research is how quickly drivers take over control of the vehicle in response to a critical event or a take-over request. Although a large number of studies have been performed, results vary strongly. In this study, we investigated mean take-over times from 129 studies with SAE level 2 automation or higher. We used three complementary approaches: (1) a within-study analysis, in which differences in mean take-over time were assessed for pairs of experimental conditions, (2) a between-study analysis, in which correlations between experimental conditions and mean take-over times were assessed, and (3) a linear mixed-effects model combining between-study and within-study effects. The three methods showed that a shorter mean take-over time is associated with a higher urgency of the situation, not using a handheld device, not performing a visual non-driving task, having experienced another take-over scenario before in the experiment, and receiving an auditory or vibrotactile take-over request as compared to a visual-only or no take-over request. A consistent effect of age was not observed. We also found the mean and standard deviation of the take-over time were highly correlated, indicating that the mean is predictive of variability. Our findings point to directions for new research, in particular concerning the distinction between drivers’ ability and motivation to take over, and the roles of urgency and prior experience. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Abstract: In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

国际刊物《Scientometrics》文献计量研究

Abstract: 本文对国际科学计量学杂志《Ｓｃｉｅｎｔｏｍｅｔｒｉｃｓ》１９７９－１９９１年的研究论文内容、栏目、作者及国别和编委及国别作了计量分析，揭示出科学计量学研究的重点、活动的中心及发展趋势，说明了学科带头人在发展科学计量学这门新兴学科中的作用。

A Survey of Autonomous Driving: Common Practices and Emerging Technologies

Abstract: Automated driving systems (ADSs) promise a safe, comfortable and efficient driving experience. However, fatalities involving vehicles equipped with ADSs are on the rise. The full potential of ADSs cannot be realized unless the robustness of state-of-the-art is improved further. This paper discusses unsolved problems and surveys the technical aspect of automated driving. Studies regarding present challenges, high-level system architectures, emerging methodologies and core functions including localization, mapping, perception, planning, and human machine interfaces, were thoroughly reviewed. Furthermore, many state-of-the-art algorithms were implemented and compared on our own platform in a real-world driving setting. The paper concludes with an overview of available datasets and tools for ADS development.

Public Opinion on Automated Driving: Results of an International Questionnaire Among 5,000 Respondents

Abstract: This study investigated user acceptance, worries, and willingness to buy partially, highly, and fully automated vehicles. By means of a 63-question Internet-based survey, we collected 5,000 responses from 109 countries (40 countries with at least 25 respondents). We determined cross-national differences, and assessed correlations with personal variables, such as age, gender, and personality traits as measured with a short version of the Big Five Inventory. Results showed that respondents, on average, found manual driving the most enjoyable mode of driving. Responses were diverse: 22% of the respondents did not want to pay more than $0 for a fully automated driving system, whereas 5% indicated they would be willing to pay more than $30,000 for it, and 33% indicated that fully automated driving would be highly enjoyable. 69% of respondents estimated that fully automated driving will reach a 50% market share between now and 2050. Respondents were found to be most concerned about software hacking/misuse, and were also concerned about legal issues and safety. More neurotic people were slightly less comfortable about data transmitting, whereas agreeable persons were slightly more comfortable with that. The more developed countries (in terms of accident statistics, education, and income) were less comfortable with their vehicle transmitting data, with cross-national correlations between ρ= -0.80 and ρ= -0.90. The present results indicate the major areas of promise and concern among the international public, and could be useful for vehicle developers and other stakeholders.

Public opinion on automated driving: results of an international questionnaire among 5000 respondents

Abstract: This study investigated user acceptance, concerns, and willingness to buy partially, highly, and fully automated vehicles. By means of a 63-question Internet-based survey, we collected 5000 responses from 109 countries (40 countries with at least 25 respondents). We determined cross-national differences, and assessed correlations with personal variables, such as age, gender, and personality traits as measured with a short version of the Big Five Inventory. Results showed that respondents, on average, found manual driving the most enjoyable mode of driving. Responses were diverse: 22% of the respondents did not want to pay more than $0 for a fully automated driving system, whereas 5% indicated they would be willing to pay more than $30,000, and 33% indicated that fully automated driving would be highly enjoyable. 69% of respondents estimated that fully automated driving will reach a 50% market share between now and 2050. Respondents were found to be most concerned about software hacking/misuse, and were also concerned about legal issues and safety. Respondents scoring higher on neuroticism were slightly less comfortable about data transmitting, whereas respondents scoring higher on agreeableness were slightly more comfortable with this. Respondents from more developed countries (in terms of lower accident statistics, higher education, and higher income) were less comfortable with their vehicle transmitting data, with cross-national correlations between ρ = −0.80 and ρ = −0.90. The present results indicate the major areas of promise and concern among the international public, and could be useful for vehicle developers and other stakeholders.