Jos Lelieveld

Bio: Jos Lelieveld is an academic researcher from Max Planck Society. The author has contributed to research in topics: Aerosol & Troposphere. The author has an hindex of 100, co-authored 570 publications receiving 37657 citations. Previous affiliations of Jos Lelieveld include University of Mainz & University of Bremen.

The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale

Abstract: Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.

Indian Ocean Experiment: An integrated analysis of the climate forcing and effects of the great Indo-Asian haze

Abstract: Every year, from December to April, anthropogenic haze spreads over most of the North Indian Ocean, and South and Southeast Asia. The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) documented this Indo-Asian haze at scales ranging from individual particles to its contribution to the regional climate forcing. This study integrates the multiplatform observations (satellites, aircraft, ships, surface stations, and balloons) with one- and four-dimensional models to derive the regional aerosol forcing resulting from the direct, the semidirect and the two indirect effects. The haze particles consisted of several inorganic and carbonaceous species, including absorbing black carbon clusters, fly ash, and mineral dust. The most striking result was the large loading of aerosols over most of the South Asian region and the North Indian Ocean. The January to March 1999 visible optical depths were about 0.5 over most of the continent and reached values as large as 0.2 over the equatorial Indian ocean due to long-range transport. The aerosol layer extended as high as 3 km. Black carbon contributed about 14% to the fine particle mass and 11% to the visible optical depth. The single-scattering albedo estimated by several independent methods was consistently around 0.9 both inland and over the open ocean. Anthropogenic sources contributed as much as 80% (±10%) to the aerosol loading and the optical depth. The in situ data, which clearly support the existence of the first indirect effect (increased aerosol concentration producing more cloud drops with smaller effective radii), are used to develop a composite indirect effect scheme. The Indo-Asian aerosols impact the radiative forcing through a complex set of heating (positive forcing) and cooling (negative forcing) processes. Clouds and black carbon emerge as the major players. The dominant factor, however, is the large negative forcing (-20±4 W m^(−2)) at the surface and the comparably large atmospheric heating. Regionally, the absorbing haze decreased the surface solar radiation by an amount comparable to 50% of the total ocean heat flux and nearly doubled the lower tropospheric solar heating. We demonstrate with a general circulation model how this additional heating significantly perturbs the tropical rainfall patterns and the hydrological cycle with implications to global climate.

Role of mineral aerosol as a reactive surface in the global troposphere

Abstract: A global three-dimensional model of the troposphere is used to simulate the sources, abundances, and sinks of mineral aerosol and the species involved in the photochemical oxidant, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles. Although the calculated heterogeneous removal rates on mineral aerosol are highly uncertain, mainly due to poorly known heterogeneous reaction rates, the reaction of SO2 on calcium-rich mineral aerosol is likely to play an important role downwind of arid source regions. This is especially important for regions in Asia, which are important and increasing emitters of sulfur compounds. Our results indicate that the assumption that sulfate aerosol follows an accumulation mode size distribution, is particularly in Asia likely to overestimate the sulfate aerosol climate-cooling effect. An even larger fraction of gas phase nitric acid may be associated with and neutralized by mineral aerosol. Interactions of N2O5, O3, and HO2-radicals with dust are calculated to affect the photochemical oxidant cycle, causing ozone decreases up to 10% in and nearby the dust source areas. Comparison of these results with limited available measurements indicates that the proposed reactions can indeed take place, although due to a lack of measurements a rigorous evaluation is not possible at this time.

Global air pollution crossroads over the Mediterranean

Abstract: The Mediterranean Intensive Oxidant Study, performed in the summer of 2001, uncovered air pollution layers from the surface to an altitude of 15 kilometers. In the boundary layer, air pollution standards are exceeded throughout the region, caused by West and East European pollution from the north. Aerosol particles also reduce solar radiation penetration to the surface, which can suppress precipitation. In the middle troposphere, Asian and to a lesser extent North American pollution is transported from the west. Additional Asian pollution from the east, transported from the monsoon in the upper troposphere, crosses the Mediterranean tropopause, which pollutes the lower stratosphere at middle latitudes.

Atmospheric oxidation capacity sustained by a tropical forest

Abstract: Terrestrial vegetation, especially tropical rain forest, releases vast quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere, which are removed by oxidation reactions and deposition of reaction products. The oxidation is mainly initiated by hydroxyl radicals (OH), primarily formed through the photodissociation of ozone. Previously it was thought that, in unpolluted air, biogenic VOCs deplete OH and reduce the atmospheric oxidation capacity. Conversely, in polluted air VOC oxidation leads to noxious oxidant build-up by the catalytic action of nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Here we report aircraft measurements of atmospheric trace gases performed over the pristine Amazon forest. Our data reveal unexpectedly high OH concentrations. We propose that natural VOC oxidation, notably of isoprene, recycles OH efficiently in low-NO(x) air through reactions of organic peroxy radicals. Computations with an atmospheric chemistry model and the results of laboratory experiments suggest that an OH recycling efficiency of 40-80 per cent in isoprene oxidation may be able to explain the high OH levels we observed in the field. Although further laboratory studies are necessary to explore the chemical mechanism responsible for OH recycling in more detail, our results demonstrate that the biosphere maintains a remarkable balance with the atmospheric environment.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

Abstract: This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5×0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow