Background Rates of violence in persons identified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments (SRAIs) are uncertain and frequently unreported by validation studies. Aims To analyse the variation in rates of violence in individuals identified as high risk by SRAIs. Method A systematic search of databases (1995–2011) was conducted for studies on nine widely used assessment tools. Where violence rates in high-risk groups were not published, these were requested from study authors. Rate information was extracted, and binomial logistic regression was used to study heterogeneity. Results Information was collected on 13 045 participants in 57 samples from 47 independent studies. Annualised rates of violence in individuals classified as high risk varied both across and within instruments. Rates were elevated when population rates of violence were higher, when a structured professional judgement instrument was used and when there was a lower proportion of men in a study. Conclusions After controlling for time at risk, the rate of violence in individuals classified as high risk by SRAIs shows substantial variation. In the absence of information on local base rates, assigning predetermined probabilities to future violence risk on the basis of a structured risk assessment is not supported by the current evidence base. This underscores the need for caution when such risk estimates are used to influence decisions related to individual liberty and public safety.

Rates of violence in patients classified as “high risk” by structured risk assessment instruments: A meta-analysis of 49,283 participants in 140 samples

https://scielo.isciii.es/pdf/inter/v27n2/1132-0559-inter-27-2-0095.pdf

Taxonomía de los homicidios de mujeres en las relaciones de pareja

This study describes the rationale, development, and validation of the intimate partner violence (IPV) police risk assessment forms of the VioGen System of the Spanish Ministry of Interior (VPR4.0 and VPER4.0), which promote greater predictive effectiveness and an improvement in the IPV law enforcement prevention. A validation study of the mentioned protocols is presented, including inter-observer reliability, estimated by the equivalence or inter-judge reliability method, while the convergent validity of these protocols was calculated with the RVD-BCN protocol. The sample consisted of 6613 new cases of IPV included in the VioGen System over a period of 2 months and which were longitudinally followed up for 6 months. The discrimination indexes are not only the summarized odds ratio (OR), area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, but also the calibration indexes positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). The results show the suitability of using procedures which, in a coordinated manner, incorporate two risk assessment instruments, one for a first screening assessment and a second one to re-assess IPV danger situations on a regular basis. The values obtained are within the margins reported by different meta-analyses regarding this type of instruments, which supports their use for professional practice.

Validation and Calibration of the Spanish Police Intimate Partner Violence Risk Assessment System (VioGén)

https://journals.copmadrid.org/pi/archivos/1132_0559_inter_30_1_0047.pdf

Intimate partner homicide risk assessment by police in Spain: the dual protocol VPR5.0-H

Objectives
This paper focuses on the issue of intimate partner violence and, specifically, on the distribution of femicides over time and the existence of copycat effects. This is the subject of an ongoing debate often triggered by the social alarm following multiple intimate partner homicides (IPHs) occurring in a short span of time. The aim of this research is to study the evolution of IPHs and provide a far-reaching answer by rigorously analyzing and searching for patterns in data on femicides.
Methods
The study analyzes an official dataset, provided by the system VioGen of the Secretaria de Estado de Seguridad (Spanish State Secretariat for Security), including all the femicides occurred in Spain in 2007-2017. A statistical methodology to identify temporal interdependencies in count time series is proposed and applied to the dataset. The same methodology can be applied to other contexts.
Results
There has been a decreasing trend in the number of femicides per year. No interdependencies among the temporal distribution of femicides are observed. Therefore, according to data, the existence of copycat effect in femicides cannot be claimed.
Conclusions
Around 2011 there was a clear change in the average number of femicides which has not picked up. Results allow for an informed answer to the debate on copycat effect in Spanish femicides. The planning of femicides prevention activities should not be a reaction to a perceived increase in their occurrence. As a copycat effect is not detected in the studied time period, there is no evidence supporting the need to censor media reports on femicides.

Evolution and study of a copycat effect in intimate partner homicides: A lesson from Spanish femicides

/pdf/valoracion-psicologica-del-riesgo-de-violencia-alcance-y-4kp6497vwn.pdf

José Manuel Muñoz Vicente

Papers

Valoración psicológica del riesgo de violencia: alcance y limitaciones para su uso en el contexto forense

Validation and Calibration of the Spanish Police Intimate Partner Violence Risk Assessment System (VioGén)