Joseph A. Francis

Bio: Joseph A. Francis is an academic researcher from London School of Economics and Political Science. The author has contributed to research in topics: Terms of trade & Great Divergence. The author has an hindex of 5, co-authored 14 publications receiving 105 citations.

The terms of trade and the rise of Argentina in the long nineteenth century

Abstract: Argentina’s early twentieth century is commonly portrayed as a ‘golden age’ in which it became ‘one of the richest countries in the world’. Here, however, this optimistic vision is challenged by placing Argentina within a new metanarrative of global divergence during the long nineteenth century. A massive terms-of-trade boom – the extent of which has not previously been appreciated – had profoundly uneven impacts across the periphery. Where land was abundant, frontiers could expand, leading to dramatic extensive (that is, aggregate) growth. An expanding frontier then had a safety-valve effect on labour markets, so capitalists responded to high wages by mechanising production, which raised labour productivity and, consequently, per capita incomes. In the land-scarce periphery, by contrast, deindustrialisation led to increasing quantities of labour receiving diminishing returns by being applied to limited land resources. Similarly, Argentina’s own century-long terms-of-trade boom allowed the Littoral to prosper but made the more densely populated interior stagnate. The presence of the poor interior then prevented the country from developing the kind of white-egalitarian democracy that had allowed the prosperous European offshoots to make the transition to rapid intensive (that is, per capita) growth. Most importantly, Argentina’s political backwardness ensured that landownership remained concentrated, which muted the safety-valve effect of the expanding frontier, so capitalists did not make the same investments in laboursaving technologies. The new metanarrative of global divergence thus leads to a far more pessimistic revision of Argentina at the beginning of the twentieth century – a revision that is verified through a comparative assessment of its living standards that shows them to have been considerably below the levels of Northern Europe and the European offshoots. Argentina’s ‘golden age’ is therefore a myth.

Globalisation, the Terms of Trade and Argentina’s Expansion in the Long Nineteenth Century

Abstract: Following Tulio Halperin Donghi's pioneering work, historians have tried to explain why Argentina experienced a dramatic export-led expansion in the first half of the nineteenth century despite a lack of price incentives. This paradox is resolved by a new estimate of Argentina's terms of trade. It suggests that they probably improved by at least 2,000 per cent from the 1780s to the first decade of the twentieth century, so there were considerable price incentives for export-led growth. Labour and capital moved into the export sector, bringing into production the country's Pampean land – a previously under-utilised resource. This suggests that Argentina's expansion in the long nineteenth century was less a result of internal factors than a response to globalisation.

The Periphery’s Terms of Trade in the Nineteenth Century: A Methodological Problem Revisited

Abstract: There is a major downward bias in the trend of most existing estimates of the periphery’s nineteenth-century terms of trade. By using prices from the North Atlantic core as proxies for prices in the peripheral countries themselves, historians ignore the dramatic price convergence that took place during the nineteenth century. This has been reflected in Jeffrey Williamson’s recent work. Measured correctly, the periphery’s nineteenth-century terms-of-trade boom would appear considerably longer, greater, and more widespread than Williamson has suggested. His grand narrative about the relation between globalisation and the ‘great divergence’ would therefore be greatly reinforced. Many of the details of his narrative would, however, need to be revised. This is illustrated by the case of India.

Resolving the Halperín Paradox: The Terms of Trade and Argentina’s Expansion in the Long Nineteenth Century

Abstract: Since the pioneering work of Tulio Halperin Donghi, historians have tried to explain why Argentina experienced a dramatic pastoral expansion in the first half of the nineteenth century even though there were no price incentives for increasing output. Here this ‘Halperin paradox’ is resolved by correcting the methodological error that underlies it. Halperin Donghi made the mistake of looking at the nominal prices of Argentina’s exports in Britain, whereas he should have looked at their prices in Argentina deflated by the prices of the country’s imports – that is, its terms of trade. When this methodological error is corrected, a massive term-of-trade boom can be seen from the 1780s through to the First World War. It is likely that Argentina’s terms of trade improved by at least 2,000 percent over this period, so there were considerable price incentives for the expansion on the Pampas. With the Halperin paradox resolved, future research should look less at the Pampean zone and more at the effects of the terms-of-trade boom on the relatively land-scarce regions of the Interior.

The Buy-to-Build Indicator: New Estimates for Britain and the United States and a Comment

Abstract: The first part of the exchange is a short article by Joe Francis. The article provides new long-term estimates and an assessment of the buy-to-build indicator for the United States and Britain, going back to the end of the 19th century. The second part offers commentary by Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan.

Growing public - social spending and economic growth since the eighteenth century

Abstract: cal dimension: the UK, the EU and the US. The profound recent changes in the industrial relations framework in the UK are described by John Addison and Stanley Siebert. They describe anti-union legislation enacted during the period 19801993 and relate it to the recent decline of unionism. The authors further examine the accession of ‘New Labour’ and its related reform agenda. They also discuss the prospect of new legislation seeking to regulate the employment relation from the level of the European Union and its impact on relevant British legislation.

The Tentacles of Progress: Technology Transfer in the Age of Imperialism, 1850-1940

Abstract: Daniel Headrick examines why the massive transfer of Western technology to European colonies did not spark an industrial revolution in those countries. Rather than spurring economic progress, he argues, the transfer of stock technology between 1850 and 1940 caused the traditional self-sufficient economies of the colonial regions to be stuck in a state of underdevelopment, a legacy which burdens these countries to this day.