Josh Rosenberg

Bio: Josh Rosenberg is an academic researcher. The author has an hindex of 1, co-authored 1 publications receiving 1 citations.

The effect of shocks to GDP on employment in SADC member states during COVID-19 using a Bayesian hierarchical model

Abstract: Using a simple Bayesian ?mixed effects? hierarchical model we provide econometric estimates of annual 2020 employment losses in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic for 15 SADC member states on the basis of historical GDP data between 2000 and 2019 and 2020 forecasts. Our mixed effects model consists of country-varying coefficients, as well as ?fixed? (pooled) coefficients. This allows us to fully explore variation between countries. The model provides estimates for losses in total employment and women's employment, from which we infer income losses. We find that roughly half of estimated SADC countries have total employment losses below or approaching 25% of all jobs, while the other half have total losses exceeding 25%. Around one-third of all jobs for women risk being lost during 2020 for Madagascar, Comoros, Angola, Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa. Our model implies that most SADC countries will experience an equivalent loss of wage income in excess of 10% of GDP (whether through pure job losses and/or reductions in wages and working hours). Policy implications are briefly discussed.

COVID-19 Induced Economic Slowdown and Mental Health Issues

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has pressed a pause button on global economic development, and induced significant mental health problems. In order to demonstrate the progressed relationship between the pandemic, economic slowdown, and mental health burden, we overviewed the global-level gross domestic product changes and mental problems variation since the outbreak of COVID-19, and reviewed comprehensively the specific sectors influenced by the pandemic, including international trade, worldwide travel, education system, healthcare system, and individual employment. We hope to provide timely evidence to help with the promotion of policymakers' effective strategies in mitigating economic losses induced by the pandemic; we suggest different governments or policy makers in different countries to share information and experience in dealing with COVID-19-induced economic slowdown and promote COVID-19 vaccine popularization plan to protect every individual worldwide against the coronavirus essentially; and we appeal international information share and collaboration to minimize stigmatization related to adverse mental consequences of COVID-19 and to increase mental health wellbeings of people all over the world.

Fiscal sustainability in Africa: Accelerating the post‐COVID‐19 recovery through improved public finances

Abstract: Abstract The article examines the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on economies in Africa through the application of a novel Debt, Investment and Growth model with a segmented Labor market (DIG‐Labor). The pandemic is modeled via supply shock that disrupts economic activities in countries in Africa, followed by effects on household consumption behavior and welfare, and business investment decisions. The DIG‐Labor model is calibrated to account for informality, which is a key characteristic of economies in Africa. We find that, in the absence of appropriate remedial measures, the COVID‐19 pandemic reduces employment in the formal and informal sectors and scales back consumption for savers and non‐savers, with the reduction in consumption being more pronounced for savers. These contractions lead to an economic recession in Africa and widen the fiscal and current account deficits, among others. The effects of fiscal stimulus packages in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic and various financing mechanisms are also examined. A key finding is that various policy responses to the emerging COVID‐19 induced macroeconomic imbalances have diverse implications, which should be carefully examined to mitigate the negative consequences while maximizing the opportunities for a swift, stronger and more inclusive economic recovery.

The South African Development Community (SADC) and Covid-19: revisiting security community in SADC

Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains a global security challenge for humanity. The COVID-19 pandemic, a non traditional security threat has exposed how regions respond to non traditional and emerging security threats. Similarly, the South African Development Community (SADC) region remains confronted with security ramifications due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The peace and security of the region has been disturbed due to an upsurge of conflicts in countries, such as South Africa (South Africa’s unrests, protests and the Phoenix Massacre), Lesotho (Eswatini protests) and Mozambique’s (Carbo Delgado insurgency), all amidst the coronavirus global pandemic. Further to this, SADCs human security challenges that have transpired and, in some cases, have been further exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, include economic decline, job losses, food insecurity and the loss of life to mention a few. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, SADC Member Stateshave had to exercise greater regional pandemic management with diseases, such as Malaria, Human Acquired Immune (HIV/AIDs) and Tuberculosis (TB). SADCs efforts in combatting these human security threats have been progressive and notable. The study will analyse and build on the challenges, identified in Landsberg’s (2012) study The Southern African Development Community decision-making architecture, where he suggests that at the heart of SADCs progress is the need for greater implementation of their set goals and aspirations. The study will analyse recent efforts, undertaken by the SADC region, in order to determine the successes and challenges, faced by the sub-regional bloc. It is analysing peace and security of SADC under the Covid-19 pandemic through an upsurge of conflicts in the region and the early securitisation and cooperation of the Covid-19 pandemic. The article suggests, SADC strengthened regional cooperation efforts, such as early warning systems and regional execution methods, have fostered advanced regional security outcomesin the region.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the South African tobacco and alcohol industries: Experiences from British American Tobacco and Distell Group Limited

Abstract: South Africa declared a State of National Disaster due to the COVID-19 pandemic, instituting a nationwide lockdown on 26 March 2020. Sale of goods and services classified as non-essential, such as tobacco and liquor, were prohibited, leading to widespread concerns about viability, job losses and investment in these industries. The study highlighted the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the South African alcohol and tobacco industries, taking the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed British American Tobacco (BTI) and Distell Group Limited (DGH) as cases. The Chow Test was utilised to determine the presence of a structural break on the BTI and DGH share prices on both the pronouncement and enactment days of the COVID-19 lockdown. Furthermore, Threshold Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (TGARCH) (1,1) was also used to test for the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown. The sample data used was daily closing share prices from 9 May 2019 to 9 May 2020, from Google Finance. The results show a structural break on the share prices on the enactment of the 26 March 2020, COVID-19 lockdown. Furthermore, the lockdown had a negative effect on the share prices of BTI and DGH. The study concludes that the COVID-19 lockdown will have long-lasting impacts on the ability of the industries to attract financing for recovery and expansion, and existing shareholders will experience reduced earnings, if any. Policy makers should promote investment by increasing interest rates, promoting local demand and supply, and provide business support to mitigate job losses.