Juan Carlos Peña

Bio: Juan Carlos Peña is an academic researcher from University of Barcelona. The author has contributed to research in topics: Flood myth & Floodplain. The author has an hindex of 9, co-authored 23 publications receiving 239 citations. Previous affiliations of Juan Carlos Peña include Generalitat of Catalonia.

Daily Meteorological Observations in Cadiz — San Fernando. Analysis of the Documentary Sources and the Instrumental Data Content (1786–1996)

Abstract: Meteorological observations in the city of C adiz are acknowledged as having been made from the middle of the 18th century onwards although they were only recorded and preserved in documentary form from 1789 onwards. Data readings were taken at the new Naval Observatory in San Fernando, ten kilometres from Cadiz, from 1797 onwards. Continuous series for temperature and atmospheric pressure at a daily resolution have been compiled and constructed from 1817 until 1996. The data series is composed of thrice daily observations made at Cadiz (1821–1880) by local observers and hourly data from Naval Observatory at San Fernando (1870–1996).

A 2600-year history of floods in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland: frequencies, mechanisms and climate forcing

Abstract: A 2600-year long composite palaeoflood record is reconstructed from high-resolution delta plain sediments of the Hasli–Aare floodplain on the northern slope of the Swiss Alps. Natural proxies compiled from sedimentary, geochemical and geomorphological data were calibrated by textual and factual sources and instrumental data. No fewer than 12 of the 14 historically recorded extreme events between 1480 and the termination of the Hasli–Aare river channel correction in 1875 were also identified by coarse-grained flood layers, log(Zr / Ti) peaks and factor 1 anomalies. Geomorphological, historical and instrumental data provide evidence for flood damage intensities and discharge estimations of severe and catastrophic historical floods. Spectral analysis of the geochemical and documentary flood series and several climate proxies (TSI, δ 18 O, tree-rings, NAO, SNAO) identify similar periodicities of around 60, 80, 100, 120 and 200 years during the last millennia, indicating the influence of the North Atlantic circulation and solar forcing on alpine flood dynamics. The composite floodplain record illustrates that periods of organic soil formation and deposition of phyllosilicates (from the medium high catchment area) match those of total solar irradiance maxima, suggesting reduced flood activity during warmer climate pulses. Aggradation with multiple sets of flood layers with increased contribution of siliciclasts from the highest catchment area (plutonic bedrock) (e.g. 1300–1350, 1420–1480, 1550–1620, 1650–1720 and 1811–1851 cal yr AD) occurred predominantly during periods with reduced solar irradiance, lower δ 18 O anomalies, cooler summer temperatures and phases of drier spring climate in the Alps. Increased water storage by glaciers, snow cover and snow patches susceptible to melting processes associated with rainfall episodes and abrupt rises in temperature substantially increased surface runoff on slopes and discharges of alpine rivers. This interpretation is in agreement with the findings that the severe and catastrophic historical floods in the Aare since 1670 occurred mostly during positive SNAO (Summer North Atlantic Oscillation) pulses after years or even decades dominated by negative SNAO and cooler annual temperatures.

Long pressure series for Barcelona (Spain). Daily reconstruction and monthly homogenization

Abstract: Daily meteorological records for Barcelona, Spain, start unofficially in 1780. The records are of very good quality, although the metadata are far from complete. This study gives the general characteristics of the daily instrumental records, details of the data sources together with the reconstruction of the daily and monthly pressure series. In the second part of this paper, a separate time series made up of three (deterministic, periodic and random) components is analysed, and a methodological approach based on the cumulative deviation from the mean is then used to homogenize the monthly pressure series.

The Mediterranean climate: An overview of the main characteristics and issues

Abstract: Publisher Summary The Mediterranean Region has many morphologic, geographical, historical, and societal characteristics, which make its climate scientifically interesting. The concept of Mediterranean climate is characterized by mild wet winters and warm to hot, dry summers and occur on the west side of continents between about 30° and 40° latitude. However, the presence of a relatively large mass of water is unique to the actual Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean Sea is a marginal and semi-enclosed sea; it is located on the western side of a large continental area and is surrounded by Europe to the North, Africa to the South, and Asia to the East. The chapter discusses that the climate of the Mediterranean region is to a large extent forced by planetary scale patterns. The time and space behavior of the regional features associated with such large-scale forcing is complex. Orography and land–sea distribution play an important role establishing the climate at basin scale and its teleconnections with global patterns. Different levels of services of readiness to emergencies, technological, and economic resources are likely to result in very different adaptation capabilities to environmental changes and new problems. The different economic situations and demographic trends are likely to produce contrasts and conflicts in a condition of limited available resources and environmental stress.

The western mediterranean oscillation and rainfall in the iberian peninsula

Abstract: Seasonal precipitation variability in the east of the Iberian Peninsula is weakly linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during autumn and winter. For the purpose of improving the study of its performance, low-frequency variability patterns specific to the Mediterranean basin have been searched for. In this way, the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) has been defined by means of the dipole composed, in its positive phase, by the anticyclone over the Azores and the depression over Liguria, and its index (WeMOi), as a result of the difference of the standardised values in surface atmospheric pressure in San Fernando (Spain) and Padua (Italy). This new index allows the detection of the variability relevant to the cyclogenesis next to the western Mediterranean basin, which determines in a predominant way the types of rainfall in the Gulf of Valencia. In this area, the WeMO is significantly better than the NAO to explain the monthly pluviometric anomalies during these seasons. Also, a daily resolution of the WeMOi can provide a useful tool to forecast torrential rainfall events in the north-western zones of the Mediterranean (eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula and the south of France), and such significantly daily rainfall frequencies for different thresholds. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Trends of extreme temperatures in Europe and China based on daily observations

Abstract: Ten of the longest daily temperature series presently available in Europe and China are analysed, focusing on changes in extremes since pre-industrial times. We consider extremes in both a relative (with respect to the time of year) and an absolute sense. To distinguish changes in extremes from changes affecting the main part of the temperature distribution, a percentile smaller than 10 (and/or larger than 90) is recommended for defining an extreme. Three periods of changes in tem- perature extremes are identified: decreasing warm extremes before the late 19th century; decreasing cold extremes since then and increasing warm extremes since the 1960s. The early decreases and recent increases of warm extremes dominate in summer, while the decrease of cold extremes for winter persists throughout the whole period. There were more frequent combined (warm plus cold) extremes during the 18th century and the recent warming period since 1961 at most of the ten stations, especially for summer. Since 1961, the annual frequency of cold extremes has decreased by about 7% per century with warm extremes increasing by more than 10% per century but with large spatial variability. Compared with recent annual mean warming of about 2-3 ◦ C/century, the coldest winter temperatures have increased at three times this rate, causing a reduced within-season range and therefore less variable winters. Changes in the warmest summer temperatures since 1961 exhibit large spatial variability, with rates of change ranging from slightly negative to 6 ◦ C/century. More extensive station observations since 1961 indicate that the single site results are representative of larger regions, implying also that the extremes studied are the result of large-scale changes. Recent circulation changes in daily gridded pressure data, used as an indicator of wind speed changes, support the results by explaining some of the trends.

Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: a review

Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter discusses a necessary task for assessing to which degree the industrial period is unusual against the background of pre-industrial climate variability. It is the reconstruction and interpretation of temporal and spatial patterns of climate in earlier centuries. There are distinct differences in the temporal resolution among the various proxies. Some of the proxy records are annually or even higher resolved and hence record year-by-year patterns of climate in past centuries. Several of the temperature reconstructions reveal that the late twentieth century warmth is unprecedented at hemispheric scales and is explained by anthropogenic, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. The chapter discusses the availability and potential of long, homogenized instrumental data, documentary, and natural proxies to reconstruct aspects of past climate at local- to regional-scales within the larger Mediterranean area, which includes climate extremes and the incidence of natural disasters. The chapter describes the role of external forcing, including natural and anthropogenic influences, and natural, internal variability in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system at subcontinental scale.